Pin Bar System

[clissold345]

Hi DDI, thanks for sharing your experience of trading Pocrel's system. I can see that one way I can improve my trading is to be more organised in checking the charts!

Can I ask you one more question about your stats? Of the 50 trades that hit next pivot level or 2:1 R/R, do you know how many hit 2:1 R/R? (I'm assuming that with some trades 2:1 R/R was further away from the entry point than the next pivot level, because Pocrel only requires 1:1 R/R.)

 

[DDI]

Hi DDI, thanks for sharing your experience of trading Pocrel's system. I can see that one way I can improve my trading is to be more organised in checking the charts!

Can I ask you one more question about your stats? Of the 50 trades that hit next pivot level or 2:1 R/R, do you know how many hit 2:1 R/R? (I'm assuming that with some trades 2:1 R/R was further away from the entry point than the next pivot level, because Pocrel only requires 1:1 R/R.)

Hi mate, its my pleasure...I wish i had traded on all those!

I dont know the answer to be honest as I didnt write them but I wouldve thought at least 1:1.5 can be assumed on those classified winners.

 

[clissold345]

Hi mate, its my pleasure...I wish i had traded on all those!

I dont know the answer to be honest as I didnt write them but I wouldve thought at least 1:1.5 can be assumed on those classified winners.

Sorry, I easily get confused about ratios. You mean that of the 50 trades that hit next pivot level or 2:1 R/R you estimate that three fifths (= 30) hit 2:1 R/R?

I'm trying to work out the best exit strategy based on your statistics. I'll post some figures later.

 

[DDI]

no no i mean given that the next pivot level must be more than 1:1 (otherwise no trade), from the 50 winning trades we had returns of 1:1.2 say to 2:1....so say average 1.5

of course some might have gone on to 4:1 or 5:1....

I tell u mate we will all leave this world still trying to work out an exit strategy...hardest part.

as i've given up on exits, m trying to improve my trading by improving entries (by filtering bad trades if possible by adding conditions) and leaving the exits 1:1 (or half 1:1 other half 2:1)

 

[clissold345]

I'm trying to work out the best simple exit strategy for Pocrel's system, based on DDI's statistics. Thanks to DDI for providing the statistics!

I'm assuming you risk £100 per trade.

Consider fixed stops 1:1 R/R. 68 trades won. 32 lost. Profit/loss = £6800 - £3200 = +£3600.

Consider fixed stops 1:2 R/R. Let's assume 30 trades reached 2:1 R/R. So that would 70 losers and 30 winners. Profit/loss = £6000 - £7000 = -£1000.

Now consider trailing stops: trailing stops set at 1:1 R/R and following the price in increments of one. Let's assume 30 trades got to 2:1 R/R and 7 of those 30 trades got to 3:1 R/R and 1 of those 7 trades got to 4:1 R/R and none got to 5:1 R/R.

So I think the totals are:

32 lost £100 = -£3200
38 won £50 (average win) = +£1900
23 won £150 (average win) = +£3450
6 won £250 (average win) = +£1500
1 won £350 (average win) = +£350

Profit/loss = +£4000

 

[clissold345]

no no i mean given that the next pivot level must be more than 1:1 (otherwise no trade), from the 50 winning trades we had returns of 1:1.2 say to 2:1....so say average 1.5

of course some might have gone on to 4:1 or 5:1....

I tell u mate we will all leave this world still trying to work out an exit strategy...hardest part.

as i've given up on exits, m trying to improve my trading by improving entries (by filtering bad trades if possible by adding conditions) and leaving the exits 1:1 (or half 1:1 other half 2:1)

Yes exit strategies are impossible to work out. But I've had a go anyway! From what you've said it sounds as if my assumption that 30 trades made it to 2:1 R/R is too high?

 

[DDI]

Yes exit strategies are impossible to work out. But I've had a go anyway! From what you've said it sounds as if my assumption that 30 trades made it to 2:1 R/R is too high?

I would say so...would be safer to assume all 50 made R:R 1:1.5

 

[brewski1984]

Ah man don't start posting up profit numbers like that, it gives me unrealistic ideas of quitting my job and ringing the Ferrari dealership even though I constantly tell myself that it just won't happen like that lol

 

[DDI]

I'm trying to work out the best simple exit strategy for Pocrel's system, based on DDI's statistics. Thanks to DDI for providing the statistics!

I'm assuming you risk £100 per trade.

Consider fixed stops 1:1 R/R. 68 trades won. 32 lost. Profit/loss = £6800 - £3200 = +£3600.

Consider fixed stops 1:2 R/R. Let's assume 30 trades reached 2:1 R/R. So that would 70 losers and 30 winners. Profit/loss = £6000 - £7000 = -£1000.

Now consider trailing stops: trailing stops set at 1:1 R/R and following the price in increments of one. Let's assume 30 trades got to 2:1 R/R and 7 of those 30 trades got to 3:1 R/R and 1 of those 7 trades got to 4:1 R/R and none got to 5:1 R/R.

So I think the totals are:

32 lost £100 = -£3200
38 won £50 (average win) = +£1900
23 won £150 (average win) = +£3450
6 won £250 (average win) = +£1500
1 won £350 (average win) = +£350

Profit/loss = +£4000

Interesting. I like the first strategy...simple...

wish I had noted how many went 2:1, 3:1 etc..

 

[advfntrader]

why not ? obviously not overnight but people have been trading pivot point for a long time, thats why it works !

Ah man don't start posting up profit numbers like that, it gives me unrealistic ideas of quitting my job and ringing the Ferrari dealership even though I constantly tell myself that it just won't happen like that lol

 

[brewski1984]

The system might work fine but I don't lol

 

[megamuel]

The system might work fine but I don't lol

Then get it programmed up as an EA like me Currently back testing and trying out some different parameters but in the very early stages so far as back testing is reaallllllyyy slow. Will share results as I get them but the early stages would indicate that a fixed TP of 1:1 R:R performs better than 1:2. Interesting that someone mentioned 1:1.5 I will have to try that.

I have also added a filter that allows a maximum number of bars before the pin is broken and so far it appears that allowing 2 bars after the pin beats 1 and 3 bars which I thought was quite interesting. In other words, if the pin is not broken in the next 2 bars then don't trade it. Only done testing on EUR/USD so far though.

Sam.

 

[Jason101]

Then get it programmed up as an EA like me Currently back testing and trying out some different parameters but in the very early stages so far as back testing is reaallllllyyy slow. Will share results as I get them but the early stages would indicate that a fixed TP of 1:1 R:R performs better than 1:2. Interesting that someone mentioned 1:1.5 I will have to try that.

I have also added a filter that allows a maximum number of bars before the pin is broken and so far it appears that allowing 2 bars after the pin beats 1 and 3 bars which I thought was quite interesting. In other words, if the pin is not broken in the next 2 bars then don't trade it. Only done testing on EUR/USD so far though.

Sam.

How about a fib at 1:1.618 (or at least rounded up to 1:1.6 ?

 

[megamuel]

Good idea. I will give it a go but like I say these things are taking ages. Currently 2-3 days per 3 (and a bit) year back test. That's with the processor set to 'high' priority for Metatrader! Also my computer froze once and restarted another time right near the end of 2 back tests. So frustrating!!!

Sam.

 

[Jason101]

I should have known you were still up, you insomniac.

 

[megamuel]

It's early yet Jason ;-) In fact, I'm getting an early night tonight as I'm off to the beach tomorrow morning. It's safe to say you can expect rain tomorrow!

Sam.

 

[Jason101]

Thats good it will save me from watering the garden, have a good day.

 

[DDI]

Then get it programmed up as an EA like me Currently back testing and trying out some different parameters but in the very early stages so far as back testing is reaallllllyyy slow. Will share results as I get them but the early stages would indicate that a fixed TP of 1:1 R:R performs better than 1:2. Interesting that someone mentioned 1:1.5 I will have to try that.

I have also added a filter that allows a maximum number of bars before the pin is broken and so far it appears that allowing 2 bars after the pin beats 1 and 3 bars which I thought was quite interesting. In other words, if the pin is not broken in the next 2 bars then don't trade it. Only done testing on EUR/USD so far though.

Sam.

good idea...I have just reactivated my tradestation account and gonna try and learn their language and start backtesting and hopefully autotrading.

got to do it. as you wont miss signals and emotion will be eliminated. the only problem is (I assume), if you want to put a strategy on 10 markets for eg, you must have a lot of funds in your account as in effect its the same as leaving an order.

I apply my own trading system in any market and any TF. that means 5 min, 10 min, 15 min, 30 min, 60 min for lets say 10 markets!!

 

[geewcee]

How easy is it to learn how to program the EAs? I've never used metatrader but if it was worth doing I could switch my account over to smartlivemarkets.

 

[Hotch]

Not too hard, my main concern is a solid definition of the pin bar.