Perfect Wave - 2012-1/2

Here is my portfolio as of today's close:

Long Term - Big troop dolloar amount allocation: TLT 50% cash 50% (no change)
Medium Term - Small troop stock holding: EDZ, FAZ, TZA (no change)

The market closed near day low again today. This is a very bearish price action where the market sucked and trapped more bulls in the moring before the decisive moving down in the afternoon. If the current preferred wave count is correct, we are in 3._3._3 wave underway. If the wave fractal reproduces itself of the wave-1, we will be seeing a big gap down and with a killing collapse very soon. Remember that this bear run is far from over! DO NOT buy any dips! All posts will be synch-ed to my blog.
 
Let me tell you my friends, the most dangerous bear market formation is a long winding slow motion one! The money flows outward from equity (slowly) into some other markets (e.g., bonds). Every time the stock market falls to a support (temporarily), it attracts some little bulls to buy, and the market gets rebound, but the market falls below the support area few days after and traps more people. In conclusion, DO NOT buy into any dip! Any surge is your opportunity to unload your stock and go short. The bear market has just started and is far from over.

20120512+SP+-+Daily.png
 
From my blog:

The market moved as expected today. Our audience got plenty of time to unload and go short in the morning. The market panicked down in the afternoon and set new day low. If the current preferred wave count is correct, wave 3._4 has ended today, which means that the rest of the week could have bloody slaughtering collapse. Again, this bear run is far from over! DO NOT buy into any dip!
 
From my blog:

The market gapped up a little bit and closed near the opening price. It is a pin inside the week-long consolidation area (132x - 129x). The consolidation will end tomorrow (Friday) with either an upside breakout of the resistance or a failure of breaking out (which will signal next week's falling down below the support area). Since we are on the short side, once the resistance is penetrated, take profit and go to vacation for the short term short positions. Medium and long term positions won't be affected by any breakout.

The preferred wave count marks this consolidation as wave-4, and a wave-5 next week is still possible. (This scenario will be voided if a long solid red surge occurs.) The bear run is far from over! DO NOT buy any dip!
 
05/27/2012

I have been posting my market comments and wave counts on this forum since 2010. I dont' know how many people are reading my posts. It makes me feel like I am talking to myself sometimes. If you are following my analysis, could you please let me know so that I can be more motivated. Thanks!

Comments are welcome!

20120526+SP+-+Daily.png


20120526+JPY+-+Daily.png


20120526+Gold+-+Daily.png


20120526+EUR+-+Daily.png
 
You should continue. From the view count I can see that many people find it useful. I certainly find it useful.
 
Not many of us use elliot wave so there's nothing to discuss really. It's more like a lecture for me personally lol. Sorry.

keep it up anyways :)
 
(More on my blog.) The market took over last Friday's reversal bar which indicated a strongly bearish view was no longer valid. The market is moving higher to find the lower high (of previous high on 05/01/2012) this week. Since we have had a lower low (05/21/2012), we are waiting for the lower high to short the market again. Be patient! The bear run is far from over! DO NOT buy any dip!
 
(More on my blog)
The market set the new low of this week today, closed as a long legged doji (long pin) after volatile washes on both sides. As we know that last week's low was a very critical point in TA perspective (50% and long term up trend channel), it was hard to get it penetrated in the first try. Today's low tested that area as the third try (2nd try - 05/23/2012). There is a Chinese saying that goes like this: Nothing Should Occur More Than Three Times. Therefore, next time if the market wants to test that area, it will break! TLT gapped up again and surged with heavy volume. Out target for TLT is 131 before August or 146 before October. We will start unloading depending on what the momentum says. Again, the stock market's bear run is far from over! DO NOT buy any dip!
 
(More on my blog)
We have expected this, and it did happen today - the market gapped down with a big hole and closed at day low as a solid black candlestick - very bearish! No more need to be said, and I knew that you would be glad to be in our loop. Even though we miss out the big moves of those bear ETFs this run (we made a big profit last run), we are still happy that our TLT performs very well! It gapped up again and surged with heavy volume. Since the momentum of this TLT upward move has been so strong, our target should focus on reaching 146 by October. Again, the stock market's bear run is far from over! DO NOT buy any dip!

If you haven't read my old posts yet, here is one that might interests you:
(20091031 What Happened in 1987)
Perfect Wave: 20091031 What Happened in 1987
 
SN - which scenario is more likely after today's action. By the way I heard this was the heaviest of short covering in 2 1/2 years.
 
samirs said:
SN - which scenario is more likely after today's action. By the way I heard this was the heaviest of short covering in 2 1/2 years.
Click to expand...

samirs - I would bet on the purple line scenario as my preferred count. Today's market closed as a gravestone candlestick pin, which implies a possible ending and reversal of the wave started this Monday. Before the high of this pin is breached, I take the purple as the preferred count. If the high is broken, the grey line is underway. Thanks.
 
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