Patterns in Short-term v Long-term

piphoe

Legendary member
10,038 194
You might also say ALGOS & HFT are eating trendline traders lunch.

You could say that, and not be too far off the mark :)

This is the 21st Century. I try to read b/w the lines :)
 

Kaeso

Established member
836 91
You might also say ALGOS & HFT are eating trendline traders lunch.

You could say that, and not be too far off the mark :)

This is the 21st Century. I try to read b/w the lines :)
I don't care who's lunch they're eating man, you go read between the lines its all good..
 

Kaeso

Established member
836 91
no, most of it isn't good. its a real bitch out there in the trenches...:rolleyes:
it is really hard but if it was easy there would be less potential reward (like in life) thats the way i look at it. Anyway i dont want to stray off topic I was just adding an alternative chart :p
 

Kaeso

Established member
836 91
it of course depends on your timeframe...and you could also say its simply moved to the middle of this blue box or to the previous levels of S/R as marked by the price line. This isnt of particular interest to me (by definition) but EUR/USD is the pair that's being looked at here.
EURUSDDaily2.jpg
 

Kaeso

Established member
836 91
hi guys
i just wanted to add another perspective to the E/U chart, I don't have a trade view on it at the moment or disagree with any previous charts I just though it might be interesting to add my simple take on it (no indicators or candles). Basically chartwize I only "see" the downward trendline being broken to the upside and now a bounce off the other side being attempted, but overall you could also say its been going sideways!... :)

View attachment 248300
Quick update for anyone interested. The simple bounce-off-the-other-side-of-the-trendline trade would be working (if also your entry tactic worked of course) and anyone taking this (i didnt :|) could be trailing and/or cashing some now for xmas shopping :cool:

EURUSDDaily3.png
 
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Kaeso

Established member
836 91
So why didn't you take the trade?
Hi brumby

It was never a set up I had selected as one I liked as such, as I said, it was just a perspective on the pair being talked about.

To answer your question hypothetically though, assuming i had chosen this as my trade, it would likely be on the H1 or M15 or M5 - not the daily. They are just my preferred TFs at the mo, and i would want to get in a bit earlier at the equivalent of say 1.1770 but this is hindsight now and i cant be sure.

I don't look for this set up much though, as i said its just what i could "see", among other things

k
 
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Brumby

Established member
593 137
Hi brumby

It was never a set up I had selected as one I liked as such, as I said, it was just a perspective on the pair being talked about.

To answer your question hypothetically though, assuming i had chosen this as my trade, it would likely be on the H1 or M15 or M5 - not the daily. They are just my preferred TFs at the mo, and i would want to get in a bit earlier at the equivalent of say 1.1770 but this is hindsight now and i cant be sure.

I don't look for this set up much though, as i said its just what i could "see", among other things
As I said many times before, analysis is not trading. I remind myself all the time about set ups I missed taking but basically it boils down to "If you could you would have but since you did not it is simply academic." It is an issue IMO which is a mirage for many traders and that is somehow recognising set ups after the fact is the same as able to trade them in real time. This is the reason why I inserted the EURUSD pair into the conversion. How would you trade the pair in real time using whatever patterns or setups or TF that you choose but call it in real time but not after the fact. There is a big difference.

I can demonstrate to you a very specific technique not just where to enter but where to take profits using EURUSD as an example. Did I trade it as per technique? No. As such it becomes an analysis and not trading.

I am referring to a technique known as median lines aka pitchfork. Statistically the probability of reaching a median line is 80 % and is backed up by research that I have seen. I can show you using ML how the EURUSD could have been traded on the 1H TF.

In order to understand how to trade using ML some background information is important :

(1)There are very specific rules in terms of how ML's are drawn;
(2)The vibration in time and price must be validated before its initial usefulness can be established;
(3)Once price reaches a ML, it either reverse; stall and zoom through; or just zoom through;
(4)Once it zooms through the ML, there is a 80 % probability it will reach the outer ML;
(5)If it zooms through the outer ML; the same rules apply to the 1st warning line and the 2nd warning line and so on until the vibration in time and price is no longer valid.
(6)Sometimes there is a shift in the ML which allows the introduction of a parallel line.





The places where I have marked with a circle are the points where there are vibration in price and time. Note that in most charting software, the purple area are not typical of ML and should simply be shaded as green to represent the outer and ML.
 

Jason101

Experienced member
1,366 214
Hi Nowler,

Just to add to dbp's comments, it's worth looking out for a confluence of levels across different time frames - especially if price is at a major round number or testing an all time high.

Tim.
Whaaatt! No way. This can not be right!
Sound trading advice from Tim :LOL::p:LOL:
 

Kaeso

Established member
836 91
As I said many times before, analysis is not trading. I remind myself all the time about set ups I missed taking but basically it boils down to "If you could you would have but since you did not it is simply academic." It is an issue IMO which is a mirage for many traders and that is somehow recognising set ups after the fact is the same as able to trade them in real time. This is the reason why I inserted the EURUSD pair into the conversion. How would you trade the pair in real time using whatever patterns or setups or TF that you choose but call it in real time but not after the fact. There is a big difference.
It wasn't a call or a trade though, I never said it was, it was just a different perspective on analysing the chart because I view them in a much simpler way. No need to read too much into it here. I know the difference between a paper trade and a real one. Whether I took the trade or I didn't – from this end its no big deal, i.e. i just move on to the next set up. Point taken though... real trades are better!

I am referring to a technique known as median lines aka pitchfork....
I never previously bothered to find out what "the fork" was for and I've googled the basics now so thanks for bringing it to my attention. The idea of it does appeal to me somewhat.
 
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Brumby

Established member
593 137
The past 3 days of trading on the EURUSD has changed my bearish view to bullish and consequently I have re-labeled the daily EW count.



The revised count primarily signals that wave 4 correction is complete and that wave 5 is now in progress. Given the price structure of wave 1 and 3, I am making an initial projected price target of $1.2627 to complete wave 5. Based on the closing price on Friday, it means there is a potential upside of approx. 700 pips.

I would be looking to open a long position next week on this pair.
 

Brumby

Established member
593 137
Long EURUSD @ $1.1920 (half position). Remaining half position to scale in (tbd).
Initial protective stop @ $1.1700.
Initial price target @1.2627 and will be adjusted as subsequent wave structure becomes clearer.
 

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