Depends on the size of the options open position. Big players defend their positions using large volumes to manipulate the price to favourable levels.
I don't know the open pos, maybe someone else can help there.
They are rarely as wet 'n wild as they used to be - certainly as far as indices futures are concerned - unless some plonk hits the wrong number in the excitement of it all and spikes the market - which has happened a couple of times in the past 10 years but is pretty rare.
The financial press pick up on the dates and try to create the 'ooooh factor' but 99% damp squib versus roller-coaster. All it does is magnify their tabloid appeal and ability.
There is also a reasonable spread as to when expiry happens, smi was 0730 - 0830 ish this morning, FTSE is at 10:30, Dax is 12:00 S&P was affectively closed last week, there are just the real die-hards still in the frame for the Mar contract.
1059 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--FTSE 100 +0.3% at 4410.8 after Mar expiry of
index futures and options contacts passes without too much volatility. Trader
says overall it looks as if many contacts had already been rolled over.
However, notes big open interest of about 17,000 contracts in the FTSE 100 4425
options. When index hit this level it bounced back and it looks as if whoever
holds the options may have been trying to sell underlying to keep the options
in the money, he says. (MMD)