Noconas hourly RSI system

Link to exact rules

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7817326

Its crucial to note tht you do not take action until an hourly bar closes. They are us eastern time 10:30, 11:30 etc. Also he does this off live data not delayed.

Let me know if I can help you with any other data for backtesting.

JonnyT said:
If someone can decrible the rules correctly, I will back test this.

Its not clear whether it only uses normal market hours data or not.

JonnyT
Click to expand...
 
Thanks.......

I didn't notice your post earlier this week. I'll be interested in jonnyt's backtest if he's able to replicate noconas hourly system. I've traded it and made money but can not be at the screen enough to really do much with it.

Whereas my own system works off end of day signals and is pretty easily done even when busy at work; albeit not as much profit as nocona.

the blades said:
In fairness to Mr Cassandra, he does openly operate his own system and I suspect it is this he's referring to in the clearstation post. His system is nothiong like the VTO system.

The VTO system, and it's subsequent modified version, is very simple, free for all to see and operate should they so wish. It's not clear (to me, anyway) what Mr Cassandra would gain from this?

Cheers,
UTB
Click to expand...
 
What hours does the system use?

Is it 09:30 to 16:00 Eastern? If so is the last bar only 30 mins?

Thanks

JonnyT
 
It goes by each clsoing bar starting at 10:30

And I think the last one is 3:30 , all eatsern time usa. I will try and find his exact posts to be more precise.

JonnyT said:
What hours does the system use?

Is it 09:30 to 16:00 Eastern? If so is the last bar only 30 mins?

Thanks

JonnyT
Click to expand...
 
More data from one of his posts

Posted by: nocona
In reply to: GeneH who wrote msg# 4581 Date:9/20/2005 4:23:00 PM
Post #of 8760

GeneH:

QQQQ / RSI 5 Hourly System informatiom:

When the RSI 5 of an Hourly bar closes below 26 BUY QQQQ
When the RSI 5 of an Hourly bar closes above 70 SELL QQQQ

When the RSI 5 of an Hourly bar closes above 74 SHORT QQQQ
When the RSI 5 of an Hourly bar closes below 30 COVER QQQQ

Make your trade at the end of an Hourly bar

Use a 2% stop loss. Set the stop loss when you make your trade
and use it where ever it occurs even if it occurs in mid hour.

Use a Live Chart where the 1st bar is a full hour (9:30 ET to 10:30 ET)

If you use options, invest only 10% of allocated money in options and invest 90% in QQQQ

Use slightly in the money near term options


Nocona


JonnyT said:
What hours does the system use?

Is it 09:30 to 16:00 Eastern? If so is the last bar only 30 mins?

Thanks

JonnyT
Click to expand...
 
try this out for size

www.vtoreport.com - rsi system tab . Simple, free system in the public domain. Its my opinion that if most investors took out their own broker stmts since 1997 and compared apples for apples with it, most would be stunned. Let me know what you think of their 8 years track record.

wwatson1 said:
in 5 years I have never found a free system that works well no matter how you alter it and how many filters you add. Just my experience.
Click to expand...
 
JonnyT,

as a master of the breakouts, how have the usual suspects (Spot On etc) done lately?

Thanks

Hittfeld
 
Assuming you meant Noconas system

I would assume he got the rsi level which says to cover the short but not low enough rsi to go long, from looking at the hourly chart.

How did you make out with the backtest you mentioned in an earlier post?

JonnyT said:
Why didn't it Stop and Reverse this time?

JonnyT
Click to expand...
 
Further info

I went and diligenced my opinion. I have copied for you and will paste here noconas rules for his system. Based on the rules I pasted below, I suspect the rsi got down to 30 but not below 26 hence he covered the short but did not go long.

QQQQ / RSI 5 Hourly System informatiom:

When the RSI 5 of an Hourly bar closes below 26 BUY QQQQ
When the RSI 5 of an Hourly bar closes above 70 SELL QQQQ

When the RSI 5 of an Hourly bar closes above 74 SHORT QQQQ
When the RSI 5 of an Hourly bar closes below 30 COVER QQQQ

Make your trade at the end of an Hourly bar

Use a 2% stop loss. Set the stop loss when you make your trade
and use it where ever it occurs even if it occurs in mid hour.

Use a Live Chart where the 1st bar is a full hour (9:30 ET to 10:30 ET)

If you use options, invest only 10% of allocated money in options and invest 90% in QQQQ

Use slightly in the money near term options


JonnyT said:
Why didn't it Stop and Reverse this time?

JonnyT
Click to expand...
 
I'm planning to download the data abd carry out the backtests this week.

JonnyT
 
Perhaps you're right

Since 5-24-05 There have been 39 trades with 7 losses for a collective gain of 22.64% w/o margin and a 55.7% cummulative gain with margin.

The losses are .48%; 2%; .23%; .13%; .33%; 2%; 2% w/o margin

Since I use full margin my losses are 2 times that. Since the system is less than 5 months old it will be interesting to see what the results will be for a year. I am pulling for 100%


The option side is what has grabbed my attention. The 2 trades that were finalized today netted 25% and 66%. As you know I only commit 10% of the trade to the options.

Nocona

badtrader said:
I just eye ball the chart, it look a terrible method,
Click to expand...
 
Latest signal

Posted by: nocona
In reply to: None Date:10/24/2005 12:47:31 PM
Post #of 9281

QQQQ / RSI 5 Hourly Update:

10-24-05 Short at $38.91
3rd Hourly bar closed RSI 5 (76+}

Nocona
 
I'm trying to find a mathematical definition of RSI so I can write the backtest code!

Anyone got one with worked examples?

I've collected the data.

Thanks

JonnyT
 
Steve,

I have to laugh, its times like this you wonder why you ever bothered to post in the first place. I have not looked at this system at time of posting but will do so straight after this has been sent however it would be refreshing if people would post their experiences with their results so we can understand if in fact it doesn't work or that the person has just applied it incorrectly.

My experience has taught me that you can have a 100% successful system and people would still slag it off mainly due to their approach with it. Again I haven't tried this yet but thanks for posting it anyway.
 
You touched on a deep subject

I've been at this since late 2000 to correct my own gross inability to be a trader by using my career abilities as a programmer and fascination with contrarian indicators into a program which removed 'me' from the picture.

You are right about people slagging it off. Over the years I've seen about 75% of the people who respond just quote some sound bite they once heard saying 'you can't time the market' or must be curve-fit etc etc. When you press them for details, many times it turns out they have done little or no work on their own, just read an article once by a broker who said so. JonnyT has downloaded the data and I gave him the rules and the RSI formula. If I talk to 50 people, I get perhaps 5 like him that actually will do the diligence.

My favorite incorrect stock market euphemism is: if any system or indicator works well then everyone will use it and it will be negated. How sad that one is. Whoever thinks that knows very litte about human nature.
This is a rehash of a post I made months ago why NO system or method will ever become so widespread that it will invalidate itself.

The brief answer is the human condition. Below are several examples.

1. it takes money to make money so if it takes 5,000 how many people did you just rule out?
2. Many people will not stay the course thru drawdowns and/or a losing trade or two, how many more people did you just rule out?
3. How many people will jump ship on a long because todays news scared them, or bail on a short because of some great economic news?
4. How many people will quit after one losing trade?
5. How many will try it for awhile then skitter off to try a more exciting looking prospect?
6. How many will freak if they get a drawdown?
7. How many of them would attempt to 2nd guess the signals then get discouraged even though they fudged it up?
8. How many people will make some excsue to withdraw their money because they want a new sofa? (or fill in the blank)

In short, unless it delivers 10% per month to their account in a bank with zero risk, I say no system or indicator will ever become that widespread because people are people.



Splurge said:
Steve,

I have to laugh, its times like this you wonder why you ever bothered to post in the first place. I have not looked at this system at time of posting but will do so straight after this has been sent however it would be refreshing if people would post their experiences with their results so we can understand if in fact it doesn't work or that the person has just applied it incorrectly.

My experience has taught me that you can have a 100% successful system and people would still slag it off mainly due to their approach with it. Again I haven't tried this yet but thanks for posting it anyway.
Click to expand...
 
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