Nfp

[wasp]

How good are you with the NFP?

Cable 9 times out of 10 moves 100 pips sometimes up to 200 and you can safely do it with a 20/25 pip stoploss.

Obviously depending on your capital, your maximum comfortable risk and ideal income has anyone ever considered just trading it alone. Thats it, one trade a month, nothing more or less. You win and happy days or lose and walk away till next month.

Naturally you'd want to be right a hell of a lot but it would certainly make life easier if you could and you get the rest of the month off!!!

At £50pp...

-20 = - 1000
-25 = - 1250

+100 = + 5000
+150 = + 7500
+200 = +10000

maybe I've just had a long day but it all sounds bloody tempting to me...

 

[dc2000]

A blue peter badge for the first trader to be able to wait for a month after a loss

But seriously the idea does have merit

 

[wasp]

It would be hard to wait but its one of the few announcements you can guarantee will move it...

Just don't lose!

 

[dc2000]

okies I know which way Im going this Friday and the clue is

Is this the way to Amarillo

 

[nefariousbaffler]

Ok well I tried to figure out your clue but no such luck. It's either up as in up the charts or down as in South like Texas.....not much help

As for only tradin NFP...couldn't you have two trades in place, one sell and one buy and both with stop losses? Wouldn't you be virtualy guaranteed to come out on top? (as long as stops were guaranteed with no slippage).
This would be great if it worked....would rather trade once a month and spend the time enjoying it instead of watching charts.

But then again....it really can't be that simple.

 

[wasp]

Ok well I tried to figure out your clue but no such luck. It's either up as in up the charts or down as in South like Texas.....not much help

As for only tradin NFP...couldn't you have two trades in place, one sell and one buy and both with stop losses? Wouldn't you be virtualy guaranteed to come out on top? (as long as stops were guaranteed with no slippage).
This would be great if it worked....would rather trade once a month and spend the time enjoying it instead of watching charts.

But then again....it really can't be that simple.

It is great in theory but these things rarely work well in practise.

Tonight I'll take a good look back a few years to see the NFP stats and the best way to go about it...

 

[wasp]

statistics

Big thankyou to Trendie,

Dunno if this is correct thread, or should be on NFP thread.
This is to do with NFP data days, and how often cable ranges a day. (wasps suggestion)

data source: http://www.livecharts.co.uk/historicaldata.php

cable: daily.
data from: 01-July-99 to date.

trading days: 2021
days range >= 150 = 582
days range >= 200 = 239
days range >= 250 = 78
days range >= 300 = 22
daily average: 126. (all days)
NB: daily range >= 150 INCLUDES daily range >= 250, 300, etc.

this is just a simple broad-brush simple analysis for possible further discussion.

 

[wasp]

Trendie, are those 'days ranges' figs just NFP days?

 

[trendie]

Trendie, are those 'days ranges' figs just NFP days?

no, just ALL days from 01-July-99 to date.
need to write some excel-stuff to identify "if weekday =Fri, and Fri=1st Fri of new Month".
will do it in a quiet moment on Monday.

I did all days just in case another pattern emerges - you never know what you might find.

 

[wasp]

no, just ALL days from 01-July-99 to date.
need to write some excel-stuff to identify "if weekday =Fri, and Fri=1st Fri of new Month".
will do it in a quiet moment on Monday.

I did all days just in case another pattern emerges - you never know what you might find.

Excellent stuff,

I'll leave the excel stuff with you then as I am hopeless when it comes to things like that. I'll go back over the last couple of years that metatrader shows and work those out for now.

 

[PKFFW]

Nice idea.

As for waiting another month after a loss being hard.........why not enjoy the month if you win and go back to regular trading if you lose on that one NFP trade each month.

That way at least you have something to do if you trade was a loser and if it was a winner you can go on holidays!

 

[wasp]

more to come......

2006

JAN: 150 (straight up)
FEB: 200 (up 40 then reverse down 160)
MAR: 150 (straight up)
APR: 110 (up 30 then down 80)
MAY: 150 (straight up)
JUN: 190 (straight up)
JUL: 130 (straight up)
AUG: 200 (straight up)
SEPT: 70 (straight down)
OCT:
NOV:
DEC:


2005

JAN: 150 (straight down)
FEB: 160 (up 80 + down 80)
MAR: 200 (straight up)
APR: 300 (up 100 + down 200)
MAY: 80 (straight down)
JUN: 120 (up 40 +down 80)
JUL: 150 (straight up)
AUG: 70 (straight down)
SEP: 160 (up 60 + down 100)
OCT: 210 (straight up)
NOV: 240 (up 40 + down 200)
DEC: 160 (up 80 + down 80)


2004

JAN: 210 (straight up)
FEB: 170 (straight up)
MAR: 290 (straight up)
APR: 220 (straight down)
MAY: 310 (up 150 + down 160)
JUN: 140 (up 70 + down 70)
JUL: 170 (straight up)
AUG: 250 (straight up)
SEPT: 150 (straight up)
OCT: 160 (straight down)
NOV: 370 (down 120 + up 250)
DEC: 220 (straight up)


Average overall > 180

22 > one direction rest of the day
11 > stop and reverse

 

[wasp]

What a difference 2 years makes

Wow! Bring back 2004....

Looking through 2004 for the NFP's was amazing... the weekends back then had larger movements than 2006 put together! Anything under 50 pips didn't seem worth mentioning. Such an amazing difference...

Any ideas on what happened? I can only think the sheer public access to the markets has caused it but.... ?

 

[dc2000]

Afternoon chaps

A little smile from me here
Having been at this point myself I have to say what you are looking at is pure 24k and just needs to be refined to clear impurities

 

[wasp]

Afternoon chaps

A little smile from me here
Having been at this point myself I have to say what you are looking at is pure 24k and just needs to be refined to clear impurities

Couldn't agree more.. its all good stuff and could be great if done correctly. Not sure I could give up the rest of the months trading but great for a big bonus each month...

 

[dc2000]

2003 2002 2001?

what timeframe data are you using

 

[wasp]

2003 2002 2001?

what timeframe data are you using

Its through Metatrader and using hourly charts I only have back till 2003 December. If I go to 4hr charts its a pain in the **** to see for sure.

Anyone have more data or know where it can be found?