NFP and FX Moves

[G-Man]

Anyone any opinions of the NFP numbers today, or are you all electioned out?

My estimate, close to conensus, is at 190k with a slight upward revision to March.

No decernable initial FX moves, some $ strengthening following later.

G-Man

 

[FetteredChinos]

ah, its been ages since we played this game

150 and not a penny more

 

[FetteredChinos]

I'm going for 170, although it may take something outside the 100/250 band to really shake things up.

Asked four banks today and typically got 4 different answers, ranging from 170 to 200

Good luck all

GJ

thats pretty precise actually GJ..

a few months ago the spread used to be 75-350 per month..

must be the increased competition forcing spreads to narrow

 

[FetteredChinos]

sheesh...

interest rates rise fears.. tried to break 10,400 and failed.

pop and drop?

 

[G-Man]

Looks like we were all out a bit. Just glad I was short on cable going in to the numbers.

Looks like 18900 is holding at the moment though. A break and I reckon we see 18850 pretty quickly.

G-Man

 

[atholh]

It's all NFP noise - from the official website - the 90% confidence interval for the monthly change in total employment from the household survey is on the order of plus or minus 430,000.

 

[10pips]

Thought I'd bring a old thread back in to live again since NFP numbers are being released under 24hours.

Quite frankly many of us don't understand or can interpret the numbers to make a successful trading decision but some do take a punt and make a healthy profit out of it.

 

[10pips]

IMO

GBP FX pairs will drop before it rises again to finish the weekly candle as bullish
Indices could be subjective but DOW/DAX/FTSE are on a uptrend based on previous monthly candle so might be worth identifying strong support zones for longer term trades or take a punt at previous key resistance for the shorter term trades for quick profit......

 

[doodboy]

market reversed on NFP. A guy i know was trying to buy this "cool" news signal giver product for 1K or so.. i told him even if he knows the NEWS results ahead, he'd still lose because market does the opposite of expected first few hours to stop hunt retailer newbs.. and correct moves come at london fix and so forth. UK numbers were so hot today but GBP fell 50 pips instead...That's our good friend Goldman Sachs trying to mess with us...

 

[tomorton]

market reversed on NFP. A guy i know was trying to buy this "cool" news signal giver product for 1K or so.. i told him even if he knows the NEWS results ahead, he'd still lose because market does the opposite of expected first few hours to stop hunt retailer newbs.. and correct moves come at london fix and so forth. UK numbers were so hot today but GBP fell 50 pips instead...That's our good friend Goldman Sachs trying to mess with us...

I don't make thousands of % in days but I believe its incredible to think the major forex pairs are deliberately manipulated to stop hunt newbie private traders. Prices are pushed about but we're not the targets. People who lose money in forex lost it, they weren't mugged for it.

 

[doodboy]

I don't make thousands of % in days but I believe its incredible to think the major forex pairs are deliberately manipulated to stop hunt newbie private traders. Prices are pushed about but we're not the targets. People who lose money in forex lost it, they weren't mugged for it.

Tom, when i say stop hunt newbies, i mean the new folks in FX who are taught conventional text book stuff ie: risk only 2% per trade, place your stop 10 pips behind last swing (no they(big banks/HFs) will push it to 50-60 pips deliberately because they know exactly where conventional traders have their stops.. ofcourse they are not targeting us specifically by our last names, but they are targeting "A crowd of trader with a particular style/mentality of trading" Anyone lost it, doesn't know the right levels to attack markets from & don't know how to TIME their trades. Patience is name of the game.

 

[tomorton]

That sounds ok to me doodboy. We agree I think that if you use the standard approach you get the standard result - the big boys get richer.

 

[forker]

market reversed on NFP. A guy i know was trying to buy this "cool" news signal giver product for 1K or so.. i told him even if he knows the NEWS results ahead, he'd still lose because market does the opposite of expected first few hours to stop hunt retailer newbs.. and correct moves come at london fix and so forth. UK numbers were so hot today but GBP fell 50 pips instead...That's our good friend Goldman Sachs trying to mess with us...

This nfp release just provided new opportunity for cheaper dollars. The dollar has been bullish and should continue so long as things continue to improve. The UK has a high level of uncertainty at the moment leaving it less in demand than usd. The fx market is simply too large for stop hunting unless you are with a greasy bucket shop. My broker, as an example, accesses 14 banks for liquity.

If banks are stop hunting they would need to buy/sell a great deal of money in order to move the market. They can't just alter their bid offer spread either because trading engines source from multiple sources.

 

[doodboy]

This nfp release just provided new opportunity for cheaper dollars. The dollar has been bullish and should continue so long as things continue to improve. The UK has a high level of uncertainty at the moment leaving it less in demand than usd. The fx market is simply too large for stop hunting unless you are with a greasy bucket shop. My broker, as an example, accesses 14 banks for liquity.

If banks are stop hunting they would need to buy/sell a great deal of money in order to move the market. They can't just alter their bid offer spread either because trading engines source from multiple sources.

ahh Sure Fx Market is too large and not always EASY for one firm to move price in their direction. How-ever, do realize, when lions hunt they hunt in packs so they -collaborate-manipulate the market. This has become more evident in Gold/Oil market. If you are thinking FX is conducted on level plain ground field, you are mistaking. Market movers/makers (aka the GS,MS,UBS) their teams have their collusion sessions all the time. Have a peak at recent discoveries http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/031714/how-forex-fix-may-be-rigged.asp
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26526905 and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forex_scandal

Keep eyes and ears open my friends. We are fishing our hunt in dirty waters.

 

[tomorton]

Interesting articles doodboy. Certainly confirm I am right to continue to avoid daytrading with tiny stops, the small fish will just get eaten up. I trade off the dailies, on trend-following charts, and this sort of manipulation is a risk I never have to face.

Maybe you're doing well at that game, but I stick to my opinion that the reason most new traders get quickly wiped out is because they are daytrading - and I don't mean daytrading badly, I just mean daytrading.

 

[forker]

ahh Sure Fx Market is too large and not always EASY for one firm to move price in their direction. How-ever, do realize, when lions hunt they hunt in packs so they -collaborate-manipulate the market. This has become more evident in Gold/Oil market. If you are thinking FX is conducted on level plain ground field, you are mistaking. Market movers/makers (aka the GS,MS,UBS) their teams have their collusion sessions all the time. Have a peak at recent discoveries http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/031714/how-forex-fix-may-be-rigged.asp
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26526905 and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forex_scandal

Keep eyes and ears open my friends. We are fishing our hunt in dirty waters.

Both articles refer to rigging the benchmark rate which is not something that affects us. As you know the benchmark rate is the rate that banks lend each other. Even the article that states order pushing is within the tiny window where that rate is set. I am not saying the market is clean but it sure isn't a case of banks hunting stops which isn't possible because of the pool of liquity providers.