Interesting sites for Dow, nasdaq and S&P TA are :
http://www.signalwatch.com
and http://www.raptorgroupresearch.com
Signalwatch is invariably over bullish and raptor seems to be neutral.
They both need to be considered in the light of current market sentiment.
However they both give good info, as long as you wait for the clearer statements or expectations of larger moves and don't over trade.
I am reticent of dealing in UK techs and prefer to spread bet the nasdaq, which removes a lot of the overnight uncertainty. Shorting it at 2850 was one of my better moves.
Just guessing, but following the current uptrend lines, the nasdaq will hit around 2470 on 20/3 - the next Fed rate decision.
2475 is a 50% retracement of the last major move - 2880 to 2070. The nasdaq seems to show more than usual prevalence for turning at around 50% retracement.
E.G. Long term 5050 (Mar high) to 3164 (May low) to 4264 (July high) - 58% retracement.
Medium term 2880 (Jan high)to 2380 14/2 to 2600 - 44% retracement.
Short term - intraday.
I actually expect a 3 wave Elliot wave formation IF the Nas is going to rise between now and 20/3.
There is a clear cut 5 wave pattern from 2880 to 2070. If the med term downtrend is to continue a 3 wave uptrend formation would be expected.
A reasonable case can be made for a 5 wave Elliot wave formation from 4200 (Sep) to 3164 (early Jan)and a 3 wave pattern back up to 2880. We could therefore be on the 2nd leg of a 5 wave med/long term downtrend. Strong support at 2000 would need to be broken for this to happen.
IF the nasdaq reaches around 2470 on 20/3 it is likely to be at the top bollinger band on the daily chart. Shorting the nasdaq at the top bollinger band over the last year would have paid off handsomely (5 big wins, 1 small loss).
The DOW is a different story and needs to be treated as a series of support / resistance lines.
11,000 strong resistance. 10,350 and 10,000 strong support. 10,500 significant reversal point.
Minor support / resistance at 10,775, 10,600 and 10,400.
Sell at 11,000, buy at 10,350. Close at 10,500 if consolidation pattern forms. Around 10,500 with consolidation pattern, buy above consolidation range and sell below.
S&P is less clear cut, but I would be looking to go short in the next couple of weeks, if it gets to 1280 to 1300 and is at the top bollinger band. Other signals are less clear cut than Nasdaq. 1200 should be major support.
The above is equally applicable to trading appropriate stocks (both UK and US) rather than the indices directly.
I am bearish for the next 3 months at least and looking for the next major shorting opportunity as outlined above.
We will see how the next 2-4 weeks pan out.
Any comments or views?
Regards,
Ian
http://www.signalwatch.com
and http://www.raptorgroupresearch.com
Signalwatch is invariably over bullish and raptor seems to be neutral.
They both need to be considered in the light of current market sentiment.
However they both give good info, as long as you wait for the clearer statements or expectations of larger moves and don't over trade.
I am reticent of dealing in UK techs and prefer to spread bet the nasdaq, which removes a lot of the overnight uncertainty. Shorting it at 2850 was one of my better moves.
Just guessing, but following the current uptrend lines, the nasdaq will hit around 2470 on 20/3 - the next Fed rate decision.
2475 is a 50% retracement of the last major move - 2880 to 2070. The nasdaq seems to show more than usual prevalence for turning at around 50% retracement.
E.G. Long term 5050 (Mar high) to 3164 (May low) to 4264 (July high) - 58% retracement.
Medium term 2880 (Jan high)to 2380 14/2 to 2600 - 44% retracement.
Short term - intraday.
I actually expect a 3 wave Elliot wave formation IF the Nas is going to rise between now and 20/3.
There is a clear cut 5 wave pattern from 2880 to 2070. If the med term downtrend is to continue a 3 wave uptrend formation would be expected.
A reasonable case can be made for a 5 wave Elliot wave formation from 4200 (Sep) to 3164 (early Jan)and a 3 wave pattern back up to 2880. We could therefore be on the 2nd leg of a 5 wave med/long term downtrend. Strong support at 2000 would need to be broken for this to happen.
IF the nasdaq reaches around 2470 on 20/3 it is likely to be at the top bollinger band on the daily chart. Shorting the nasdaq at the top bollinger band over the last year would have paid off handsomely (5 big wins, 1 small loss).
The DOW is a different story and needs to be treated as a series of support / resistance lines.
11,000 strong resistance. 10,350 and 10,000 strong support. 10,500 significant reversal point.
Minor support / resistance at 10,775, 10,600 and 10,400.
Sell at 11,000, buy at 10,350. Close at 10,500 if consolidation pattern forms. Around 10,500 with consolidation pattern, buy above consolidation range and sell below.
S&P is less clear cut, but I would be looking to go short in the next couple of weeks, if it gets to 1280 to 1300 and is at the top bollinger band. Other signals are less clear cut than Nasdaq. 1200 should be major support.
The above is equally applicable to trading appropriate stocks (both UK and US) rather than the indices directly.
I am bearish for the next 3 months at least and looking for the next major shorting opportunity as outlined above.
We will see how the next 2-4 weeks pan out.
Any comments or views?
Regards,
Ian
