My journey to long term consistency

[DrSafari]

Demo account

Long Idex
400 Shares
Reason of closure: stop loss got hit
Opening rate: 86.28
Opening time: 6/7/2016 4:32 PM

Close rate: 85.9
Close time: 6/7/2016 9:38 PM

Amount risked: €‪112.80
Stop loss: 32 pips = 86.86

Net P/L: €‪-133.76‬‬


Chart
Green arrow is where I opened position and red arrow is where it got closed. Chart is a 15 min chart



Personal notes
Tight SL and turned against me. Slightly bigger loss than the stop because of a gap. Reviewing everything I also noticed that the spread was 10 pips here

 

[DrSafari]

REAL ACCOUNT

Long S
1400 Shares
Reason of closure: adjusted stop loss got hit
Opening rate: 1543.05
Opening time: 6/8/2016 10:51 AM

Close rate: 1542.94
Close time:6/8/2016 12:34 PM

Amount risked: €‪105
Stop loss: not sure did not keep a record of that I'm afraid

Net P/L: €‪-1.97‬


Chart
Green arrow is where I opened position and red arrow is where it got closed. Chart is a 15 min chart


Current equity: € 5 160,55


Personal notes
I jumped on a rather short trend for a change. Usually I only enter if there is a more established trend. The chart looked nice though and so far there were no suitable trades in my real account so I took it anyway.

Started going my way and I adjusted the SL to slightly above break even. Unfortunately the trend didn't continue and I got stopped out slightly below break even. On the chart it looks like a profit but that is Mr. Spread ruining the party I'm afraid.

 

[DrSafari]

Demo account

Long ITT
500 Shares
Reason of closure: trailing stop loss got hit
Opening rate: 36.41
Opening time: 6/7/2016 4:36 PM

Close rate: 36.34
Close time: 6/8/2016 5:02 PM

Amount risked: €‪110.17
Initial Stop loss: 25 pips = 36.07

Net P/L: €‪-30.73‬ + €‪54.59 ‬Dividend = €‪22.45‬


Chart
Green arrow is where I opened position and red arrow is where it got closed. Chart is a 15 min chart



Personal notes
Made a profit at some point but then chart went down again triggering my trailing SL, because of a dividend being handed out at that time it resulted in a €22 profit instead of a €30 loss. According to system I should have moved SL to break even but I was not at the computer at the time. Thats why this automatic trailing SL is going to come in quite handy.

 

[DrSafari]

Demo account

Long Omnicom
500 Shares
Reason of closure: adjusted trailing stop loss got hit
Opening rate: 84.04
Opening time: 6/8/2016 4:30 PM

Close rate: 84.96
Close time: 6/8/2016 7:59 PM

Amount risked: Forgot to log but probably around €‪120 -130
Initial Stop loss: /

Net P/L: + €‪403.37‬


Chart
Green arrow is where I opened position and red arrow is where it got closed. Chart is a 15 min chart



Personal notes
This trade is a good example of the beauty of my new system. Clean charts allow for a narrow SL which allows for bigger position size which results in bigger profits if the trade goes your way. 400 reward for a risk of ~130 is not bad!! I was initially making a bit of profit so I narrowed my trailing SL down so if it would fall again it would close at break even.

As you can see on the chart that resulted in getting stopped out prematurely. My feeling is that moving the SL to breakeven when 75% of profits have been reached is not beneficial for this system but I'm not totally sure. Could have closed this trade with 200 profits more. I think I should not tinker with the trailing SL once it has been set to take full advantage of this system.

To be continued....

 

[DrSafari]

Demo account

Short Cenovus
850 Shares
Reason of closure: adjusted trailing stop loss got hit
Opening rate: 15.46
Opening time: 6/9/2016 5:03 PM

Close rate: 15.19
Close time: 6/9/2016 7:00 PM

Amount risked: €‪112.56
Initial Stop loss: 15 pips = 15.61

Net P/L: + €‪202.74‬


Chart
Green arrow is where I opened position and red arrow is where it got closed. Chart is a 15 min chart



Personal notes
Moved trailing SL to break even when 75% of SL profit had been reached. Didnt catch that much of the trend but still it is a nice profit. Also the fact that these anount of profits usually tend to happen fast due to the nature of the charts I choose and the increased position size (but tight stops) is an added benefit because the risk of holding it overnight or over a weekend is decreased.

 

[DrSafari]

Demo account

Short Southwestern Energy
400 Shares
Reason of closure: trailing stop loss got hit
Opening rate: 13.8
Opening time: 6/9/2016 4:31 PM

Close rate: 14.2
Close time: 6/9/2016 4:46 PM

Amount risked: €‪123.78
Initial Stop loss: 35 pips = 14.15

Net P/L: €‪-141.43‬


Chart
Green arrow is where I opened position and red arrow is where it got closed. Chart is a 15 min chart



Personal notes
Worst. Timing. Ever. Also looks like a wide stop but each candle represents a period of 15 minutes and I opened probably somewhere at the price level of half that candle where the green arrow is pointing. Something to consider is to look at even smaller timeframes 5m or 1m and not enter a trade when its not going in your direction.

There is also a very slight gap visible on the 15 min chart, normally against my rules and I may or may not be suffering the consequences for that but it only reinforces the importance of following the rules of your system.

 

[DrSafari]

REAL ACCOUNT


Short Me
500 Shares
Reason of closure: adjusted stop loss got hit
Opening rate: 20.9
Opening time: 6/13/2016 10:04 AM

Close rate: 20.71
Close time:6/13/2016 3:49 PM

Amount risked: €‪125
Initial Stop loss: 21.15

Net P/L: +€‪95.00‬


Chart
Green arrow is where I opened position and red arrow is where it got closed. Chart is a 15 min chart


Current equity: € 5 255,55


Personal notes
Could have taken two other trades today according to my real account system but this chart looked the nicest so only took this one. Did not use the trailing stop loss yet because I am not yet 100% confident it works well and it is not visible as a line on the chart. The broker probably did that on purpose so that less people will use it cause obviously its better to have a trailing SL. Wouldnt have made much of a difference in this case though. Good trade all in all

Will not take any trades on the demo account today because Belgium plays on the EC tonight and I will have mostly that on my mind for tonight at least There are two other demo trades I still have to report but that will have to wait for tomorrow too.

 

[DrSafari]

As announced here are two more trades from my demo account

Demo account

Short Baidu
50 Shares
Reason of closure: trailing stop loss got hit
Opening rate: 167.48
Opening time: 6/9/2016 4:52 PM

Close rate: 162.45
Close time: 6/13/2016 3:50 PM

Amount risked: €‪115.29
Initial Stop loss: 261 pips = 170.08

Net P/L: +€‪221.26‬


Chart
Green arrow is where I opened position and red arrow is where it got closed. Chart is a 15 min chart



Personal notes
Nice trade. Kept it over the weekend cause there was no high volatility economic event on monday. Nothing much more to add.

 

[DrSafari]

Demo account

Short Imperial Oil
400 Shares
Reason of closure: adjusted trailing stop loss got hit
Opening rate: 31.58
Opening time: 6/10/2016 4:22 PM

Close rate: 31.32
Close time: 6/13/2016 3:50 PM

Amount risked: forgot to log this again apparently but probably around 130
Initial Stop loss: see above

Net P/L: +€‪90.04‬


Chart
Green arrow is where I opened position and red arrow is where it got closed. Chart is a 15 min chart



Personal notes
Again good trade but have my doubts about holding it over the weekend. Then again my system doesnt mention it so lets keep it like this for now.

 

[DrSafari]

No new demo trades today. I am not allowed to trade according to the system.

 

[DrSafari]

Demo account

Short Polaris Industries
200 Shares
Reason of closure: trailing stop loss got hit
Opening rate: 79.28
Opening time: 6/16/2016 4:35 PM

Close rate: 80.18
Close time: 6/16/2016 5:28 PM

Amount risked: €145.49
Initial Stop loss: 81 pips = 80.46

Net P/L: €‪-161.59‬


Chart
Green arrow is where I opened position and red arrow is where it got closed. Chart is a 15 min chart




Personal notes
I notice there is a big differnce in the amount risked I logged (took a screenshot from) and the actual amount I lost/ the actual price I exited. The stock did not gap so I think this is due to the fact that I took the screenshot when I was not yet in the position and the spread was not included yet.

This trade and therefor loss could have been avoided if I had applied my idea of setting an order which would be filled IF the trend continued, which it did not in this case. I will update the trading plan accordingly, this can only be a good thing. This time I will not reset my statistics as they are profitable already and I'd rather be on the pessimistic side than overvalue the strategy.

 

[DrSafari]

Demo account

Short Radian Group
1500 Shares
Reason of closure: trailing stop loss got hit
Opening rate: 10.21
Opening time: 6/16/2016 4:27 PM

Close rate: 10.32
Close time: 6/16/2016 5:28 PM

Amount risked: €148.15
Initial Stop loss: 11 pips = 10.32

Net P/L: €‪-148.09‬


Chart
Green arrow is where I opened position and red arrow is where it got closed. Chart is a 15 min chart. I added an orange box to indicate the trend I was attempting to ride as I took too large of a screenshot apparently.




Personal notes
Same as above: this trade and therefor loss could have been avoided if I had applied my idea of setting an order which would be filled IF the trend continued, which it did not in this case. I will update the trading plan accordingly, this can only be a good thing. This time I will not reset my statistics as they are profitable already and I'd rather be on the pessimistic side than overvalue the strategy.

 

[DrSafari]

Demo account

In my last trading session I used orders instead of buying at current price and there were two trades that hit the order but turned out to be losers (will post later), there were two other trades that did not hit the order which obviously turned out losers too. I am now going to post those charts.





The advantages of using orders

• I avoid getting into losing postions like this
• More flexibility, I don't have to be present at a particular moment in time since entry is not so much time based but price based

The disadvantages of using orders

• It's more complex because I have to "calculate" what a good price entry level would be.
• The same avoiding losing positions advantage can be gained if you look at the short term 5 min charts. Could make it a rule not to buy when the short term trend is down (or up).
• If the order gets hit sooner than expected news events can influence the stock, this can be anticipated of course but adds to the complexity of the system.

I think I will add this to my trading plan. In general, look at the short term 5 min chart and only buy when its going along with the trend. Only IF for some reason I can't be at the screen 1 hour after market opens I can put orders.

Oh yeah, one more thing: These stocks did not gap according to how I defined gap, but they kind of did. Again, you could define this % wise or just go with "what looks like a gap and what not" but that is dangerous for letting emotions go into play and will probably diminish the predictability of my system and since its demo account I want to have a robust system once I go live. In these examples it does look like a gap but put the orders anyway cause that is not the definition.

 

[DrSafari]

You know what? Why not represent what constitutes as a gap visually? I updated both charts with trend lines. Its easy because the charts I choose are clean. It is SUPER obvious that the stock gaps up when I draw it like that. Okay its not 100% objective but good enough I reckon. The price obviously went way out of the lines it moved in. I'm going to use that as my definition instead of the "no white space between 15 min bars"

 

[DrSafari]

Plan Demo Account:

1) Deciding whether to trade or not

• Before deciding to trade look if any major economic events are up in the current trading day if yes then we DO NOT TRADE unless after 1 hour of occurence
• Before deciding to trade: check yahoo finances whether something big is up or not. If it is DO NOT TRADE

2) Find potential trades

• Do this (the following) before US market opens and make a list of potential candidates
• One hour after opening of market go through that list and look for positions to take OR use an order with a price entry where the trend would be 1 hour after market opening IF it's not possible to be at a pc at that time.
• Wait at LEAST 1 hour after the occurence of a major economical event or indicator
• Look at the S&P500 and the stocks in your watchlist. Watch if most of them are in the plus or in the min. Only go Long if the market is clearly more bullish, only go short when the market is clearly more bearish, do nothing if that is not clear.
• Scan american stocks and look for clean charts (whether up or down determinded in previous point). Clean will be "defined" below (1)
• Do not include stocks that gapped opun opening of that day. Gap will be defined below (2)
• Do not include stocks that require me to take stop losses wider than 2% of my equity
• The last three bars (1h) should go with the trendline, else dont take it
• Look at the shorter timeframes 15m and 5m and only enter the position if those are going along with the trend.

3) Taking positions

• Look for the trend and highest difference in opposite direction of the entire trend is where I place my stop loss
• I am not going to risk more than 2 % on each trade
• I am not going to risk more than 6 % in total positions

4) Once in a position

• Make it a trailing stop loss
• Once the trade reaches 75% profit of amount risked move the SL to break even.
• Once the trade reaches 100% profit of amount risked move the SL to 50% profit (of what was the SL)
• Exit only if stop loss hits OR if a high expected volatility economic event is going to occur
• Document every trade carefully in journal (with charts) saying what you did and what I should have done

(1) A clean chart is a chart with:

1. As much candles as possible in the same colour.
2. As little wicks as possible
3. All candles having about the same height.
4. The top of the previous candle comes close to the bottom of the next candle (or vice versa)

(2) A gap is a stock that *clearly* violates the trend line as seen below.

 

[DrSafari]

This trade did not use the above revised trading plan yet.
I used order for this trade

Demo account

Long TD Ameritrade
1000 Shares
Reason of closure: trailing stop loss got hit
Opening rate: 29.87
Opening time: 6/17/2016 3:51 PM

Close rate: 29.84
Close time: 6/17/2016 4:30 PM

Amount risked: €141.88
Initial Stop loss: 16 pips = 29.71

Net P/L: €‪-26.57‬


Chart
Green arrow is where I opened position and red arrow is where it got closed. Chart is a 15 min chart.




Personal notes
Could be considered as a gap by my revised system, it is usual for stocks to have a downward correction after they "gap" up.

 

[DrSafari]

This trade did not use the above revised trading plan yet.
I used order for this trade

Demo account

Long The AES
2000 Shares
Reason of closure: trailing stop loss got hit
Opening rate: 11.46
Opening time: 6/17/2016 4:10 PM

Close rate: 11.41
Close time: 6/17/2016 5:35 PM

Amount risked: forgot to log again apparently :/ but around the usual ~€130
Initial Stop loss: not alot

Net P/L: €‪-88.86‬


Chart
Green arrow is where I opened position and red arrow is where it got closed. Chart is a 15 min chart.




Personal notes
Painful to see this. SL is too narrow, on the chart it even looks like Im break even but because of the relative big position and spread the tiny difference in open and close (5 pips) results in a 88 € loss. However, had I put the SL a bit wider (even with less of a position size) then I would have had a nice profit. Of course I just followed the system but I should take it into the back of my head that in the case of extremely tight SL's I should err on the side of making them too wide instead of too narrow.

 

[DrSafari]

Demo account

Long American Homes 4 Rent
750 Shares
Reason of closure: major economic event was about to happen so manual close
Opening rate: 18.64
Opening time: 6/20/2016 4:15 PM

Close rate: 18.6
Close time: 6/21/2016 3:44 PM

Amount risked: why do I keep forgetting to log? around the usual ~€130
Initial Stop loss: ????

Net P/L: €‪-27.76‬


Chart
Green arrow is where I opened position and red arrow is where it got closed. Chart is a 15 min chart.




Personal notes
Did what I had to do according to the system. Stock didnt really move anymore after I bought it. Followed the system cause this stock did not gap. If you draw the longer term trend lines this would be within them, if you drew the shorter term ones it would still be in them. Also the place were the three long bars are, right in the middle of them is the close of the market and the open of the next day and it continued as if the market never closed. This seemed like an excellent opportunity. And the hourly chart looked nice.

 

[DrSafari]

Demo account

Long American Homes 4 Rent (yes, again)
1000 Shares
Reason of closure: trailing SL got hit
Opening rate: 18.8
Opening time: 6/21/2016 4:16 PM

Close rate: 18.64
Close time: 6/21/2016 5:10 PM

Amount risked: € 124.31
Initial Stop loss: 14 pips = 18.66

Net P/L: €‪-141.87‬


Chart
Green arrow is where I opened position and red arrow is where it got closed. Chart is a 15 min chart.




Personal notes
Same reason why I opened the other one. No gap, went up nicely according to the clean chart . The only thing I wasn't sure of was the context of the market. The S&P500 was slightly positive around +0.10%. Most European stocks were down if I remember correctly but when looking at american stocks it was more like 50/50. Because the index was slightly up I decided to go long, but maybe I should not have because it wasn't very clear. What was weird was that there were a lot of stocks that were a clean chart for going short, but almost none for going long... maybe that was an indicator for not taking this trade too.


Another remark is that although the chart was pretty clean, maybe it was not clean enough to use these tight SL's... then again they are based on the volatility so should sort itself out. But still, on the 15 min chart it went up a lot fast then moved sidewas then went up fast again, then sideways but of course for the definition of clean I only look at hourly. Not going to draw conclusions yet but just writing down my thoughts atm.


====================================================================

Oh yeah, I'm going to add even more information in my journal. From now on I am also going to take note of the context on the moment I open a position. This means when and which important economic events are going to occur. The amount the S&P500 index is up or down, and if most american stocks are up or down or 50/50

Also, I am going to make myself some example charts of how clean hourly charts look like so I can look at them later. Or should I start using 15min charts altogether and ignore hourly? I will post winners of nice hourly charts when they occur and add them to the trading plan so I can always fall back and look at them to keep remembering what it is I am looking for.

Thats all!

 

[TKariuki]

Hi guys,

I am currently conducting a survey on trading strategies adopted by online retail currency traders as part of my school research.

Please click on the link below to be part of the survey

http://goo.gl/forms/NcqOLf2l5rHcutNW2

For further information on myself, the survey and the research in general you can contact me
at [email protected]

I will try and make all information and findings to members. I can also forward any literature or material to those interested.

Thanks guys for participating