my journal

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Dommo

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Jan 13, 2009
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Travis

I've followed your journal off and on for a few weeks - you are far and away the most prolific poster on this site at the moment. You are very open about what you are thinking. I'm not sure I cogitate as much in a week as you actually post on here!

If I may, I'd like to make an observation (and I realise that maybe others have made it). I think you've described both automatic and discretionary trading systems. My observation is that you don't appear to stick with any strategy/tactic for any reasonable length of time. You appear to change strategy intraday, and sometimes more than once.

Memory is vague, but I think you said that you have written 40 or so automated systems. I think you have claimed here that some of them work. If so, why are they not at work now? I realise, of course, that almost any auto-strategy might work over some timeframe/given set of circumstances and not others, but if you think they have longer term viability, why not use them?

I don't think there is any one definitive way to approach trading - some people like TA, some like drawing lines, some FA, some candlesticks, some like stat arb rules coded in a machine or a combination of these and other things, all with a variety of degrees of success but I really do think this, and someone else said the same on this site earlier this week: if you can make one unit a week, fairly consistently, and you can maintain that then you are in a great position because you can scale up. I think Sharpe ratio (crude, but informational) is useful, and intuitive.

But, if your methodology changes on a daily basis, it must be very difficult to determine what works and what doesn't, because you don't have a coherent, consistent methodology to compare against the market.

Don't be offended if I don't post here again for a long while, or if never. It's because I am not prolific and I am very busy, or, I may just not have much to say.

Out of interest, are you currently trading from Italy? The side banner here carries the stars & stripes.
I wish you the best of luck
 

Yamato

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Mar 22, 2003
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Thanks for reading my journal and taking the time to write me some feedback.


YOUR OBJECTION #1

You say that I "don't appear to stick with any strategy/tactic for any reasonable length of time". True only for one of the 3 modes of my trading, the "compulsive gambling" mode, which is my worst mode and something I've been trying to get rid of for months - probably since I started this diary.

Here's an outline of my present trading modes, from worst to best:
1) compulsive gambling: all bad and out of control (trying to eliminate it by keeping myself busy with #2)
2) pro-trend semi-discretionary system: all good and under control
3) automated systems: all good and under control

I've been doing #1 from 1997 till now, #2 since a few weeks ago, #3 full time since early 2008 and only backtesting since 2003. I'm trying to get #2 to replace #1, by eliminating the urges that make me do it (probably urges to make money fast so I can solve my problems).

As far as #1, as I said, your remark is correct, and, in all these 12 years I've been trading, I've kept changing strategy aimlessly as I was into "full gambling mode".
But, if your methodology changes on a daily basis, it must be very difficult to determine what works and what doesn't, because you don't have a coherent, consistent methodology to compare against the market.
I know, and I've recently made your same remark in several of my last 500 posts: if you keep changing gun, you'll never become a good shot.


YOUR OBJECTION #2

You ask why i am not using my automated systems. Well, first of all it's not true because I've actually been using them for years and I am still using them even now that I have so little capital (once again, I've written it several times, maybe more than once a day). The question you might then ask is "why aren't they making money?". And again, I've said all this several times (just thinking out loud, without the need for anyone to ask me): lack of capital, which in turn was caused mostly by gambling.

I can still afford to trade some of them, as I said: the few whose drawdown I can afford with just 5k of capital, and they did produce amazing results in the past, but I've blown away the winnings mostly with my gambling (e.g.: I've gone from 20k to 10k just in two weeks of gambling, in July) and partly with faulty money management (trading futures whose drawdown I couldn't afford). I've written all these things before but of course I can't expect you to read over 1000 posts before writing. Not using my profitable systems is not a mistake I am making any more: I've made it before, when I still didn't trust them. The one and only problem I still have is compulsive gambling. A much smaller problem was my automated systems money management, as I mentioned, but that's solved. And finally my problem right now is having a small capital, but if I don't gamble, that won't be a problem for long, because capital should increase thanks to #2 and #3.

I must add this: when capital is low my automated get screwed, even I don't do any gambling. The systems work all right beyond 20k, but perform very poorly under that capital. I can't explain in detail for lack of time and understanding, but due to their drawdown, and to the fact that they help one another by trading all at once, with just 10k you're not going to get very far very fast.

Another thing: paradoxically my systems have performed better with reckless money management than with proper money management. When I didn't know what i was doing, I used them all simultaneously and more than once I got as lucky as getting from 5k to 25k in a few months. Then partly I gambled the winnings away (in my effort to make even more), partly I spent them (because I felt they would go on forever), and, partly, because of the same reckless money management, the systems themselves lost money. Now I know how delicate this money management balance is, thanks to forward testing results especially, and I realize how lucky I've been when I got from 5k to 25k in a few months, and so now I trade the systems much more carefully, because I know they could get from 5k to 2k in two days. But the consequence is that they don't double in one month, nor in two months, nor ever. For example, had I used in November the same money management that I used in all of 2008 and most of 2009 (until I started with my forward testing in July), I would have lost my 5k in just a few days.


YOUR OBJECTION #3

You ask whether I am in Italy or in the States. Yeah, I am trading from Italy and I have written other posts explaining what the american flag is doing on my profile. Travis is from the States. And Taxi Driver is my favorite movie.
 
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Dec 10, 2008
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Hi Travis!

Nice journal here! I find yourself very honnest to show us how you "struggle" whit the market and how willing you are about getting consistant profitable.

I do, still, fight whit the market myself too everyday, and can understand your progression easily.

In short, all I have to say is about your gambling habits. #1. Some rules need to be follow when you don't have a clue about what you do, some other need to be follow even when you know what you do.

Exemple, I don't stick whit a fix entry rules.... I don't trade whit indicators and extra scam tools, so its preatty hard to pin point a rules like this for me, I do it by personnal judgement, experience and technic.

But what I never broke, is my SL rules. Max 30 for scalping, max 60 for swing trading. If you analyse chart and yourself, you could find a way to stop yourself making THE bad mistake, and then focus on what matter the most - making money. (this is an average game...).

You were talking about psychology in your first post and how you don't understand the focus people put on this. This is exacly why.... If the trader don't have the good psychologie, it will always broke his rules, he will place revenge trade, he will get confuse by changing system because of frustration and pain.

Also, you can test a strategy, and it will work for a time, then market behavior is going to change and the system is worthless. What matter the most for me - I said for me ;) its to understand price action, witch is soooo simple that most of poeple don't know it. They like the complicate fancy system and colored indicators, not simple understandable boring thing that make money.... this is so boring. LOL

You take care!
Inz.
 
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Yamato

Well-known member
Mar 22, 2003
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Hi Travis!

Nice journal here! I find yourself very honnest to show us how you "struggle" whit the market and how willing you are about getting consistant profitable.

I do, still, fight whit the market myself too everyday, and can understand your progression easily.

In short, all I have to say is about your gambling habits. #1. Some rules need to be follow when you don't have a clue about what you do, some other need to be follow even when you know what you do.

Exemple, I don't stick whit a fix entry rules.... I don't trade whit indicators and extra scam tools, so its preatty hard to pin point a rules like this for me, I do it by personnal judgement, experience and technic.

But what I never broke, is my SL rules. Max 30 for scalping, max 60 for swing trading. If you analyse chart and yourself, you could find a way to stop yourself making THE bad mistake, and then focus on what matter the most - making money. (this is an average game...).

You were talking about psychology in your first post and how you don't understand the focus people put on this. This is exacly why.... If the trader don't have the good psychologie, it will always broke his rules, he will place revenge trade, he will get confuse by changing system because of frustration and pain.

Also, you can test a strategy, and it will work for a time, then market behavior is going to change and the system is worthless. What matter the most for me - I said for me ;) its to understand price action, witch is soooo simple that most of poeple don't know it. They like the complicate fancy system and colored indicators, not simple understandable boring thing that make money.... this is so boring. LOL

You take care!
Inz.
Hey, thanks for the feedback. Anyone who can make money has something to show to me. This time I won't reply as long as the previous feedback because i am tired from testing and modifying the previous reply to earlier feedback about 100 times in a few hours.

What I can say is this: i trust my simple systems to keep working for the future years. I don't think the changes in the market will make them stop working

You make money? You can definitely teach me a lot. If you teach me your system, I'll try to automate it and it will be one of the dozens of my systems. If you tell me that it requires a lot of work, then I won't do it, because I am tired already. If it's simple, it will still take me months before I can get the energies to automate it.

As a discretionary trader, instead, I still have plenty of energies, maybe too much. I mean the energies to backtest & automate are a different type of energies than the ones that you need to trade discretionary, and that I immediately get by just staring at a chart for one minute (even too much). I get hyperactive when I stare at a chart. It fills me up with energy. Instead, when I look at tradestation or excel vba modules, I get lazy and feel like not doing it. I made myself do it all these years in hope of making money one day. And it was well placed effort indeed. Even though that money hasn't come in yet, mainly due to gambling and under-capitalization (which is partly a consequence of gambling).

Good luck to you. I'll check out your journal from time to time even though I found it hard to read, maybe because it requires the type of work that makes me become lazy. The charts you posted don't look easy to understand to me.
 
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Yamato

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Mar 22, 2003
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My friend from college, who lives in Rome as well, called me several times and insisted and eventually I accepted to meet him with a girl. He came up to my apartment and stormed my house, as usual. He's hyperactive. I would have regretted meeting him, but this girl had huge boobs plus a smell, a nice scent I still can smell in my hands. It was worth to meet a real woman after all these months, even though I could not touch her boobs.

Yeah, it's pretty interesting that I cared about someone's boobs. I mean, what is the point of that anyway? What kind of a sick animal am I? If she had a big ear I wouldn't care. If she had a big foot or a big hand I wouldn't care. But this other part of her body is big and so I am in a good mood. How strange. Especially since I am not going to do anything at all with it. What a totally amazing excellent discovery.

Now he's supposed to come back here, with two or three other friends, after they eat out, because I refused to go to dinner with them, as meeting my friend for one hour was enough of a disruption in my life. But who I really care to meet again is that girl with the big boobs.

And if possible I'd like to touch them. Not that it's going to change anything in my life, but it's like an irresistible instinct, just like the one I get when I feel the urge to gamble.
 

Yamato

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Mar 22, 2003
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Now I am here. I want to go to sleep, but this guy disrupting my life has said he'll come again. I don't want him to come, especially I don't want him to come late. He always makes appointments with several people at the same time, so he is always ditching someone, and late with everyone.
 

Yamato

Well-known member
Mar 22, 2003
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This is what I am going to do. Since he's not bringing to me any girls with big boobs, I'll text message him and say I am going to bed. Actually that I'm already sleeping.

I don't understand why this guy is coming to my house anyway. I don't give him money any more since I've lost almost all of it. I don't pay for dinners or anything, the way I used to do. Maybe he feels friendship or something similar. But he just gives me stress, and I don't know what I give him. Maybe peace? I just keep on complaining about him to his friends he just introduced to me the whole time he's in the house, because he keeps on...

there he goes - he called me.

He gave me permission to go to sleep because he said... well, he said it's up to me, so I said I am going to bed. But if he doesn't insist he's basically telling me he doesn't want to come and therefore he's allowing me to go to sleep. Nothing ever happens with his friends anyway, he brings me all these women, and nothing ever happens with them. I just spend my money treating them to some useless place.

Prostitutes are better, because you don't spend as much time nor money and you get to the point. These women are like a bucket shop, where you pay but you don't trade. And prostitutes are like the interactive brokers of sex.
 
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Dec 10, 2008
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Sorry to bother you on your journal, I hope I'm not....

---------------------------------
Muhahaha! I love your way of perception on things like : "He gave me permission to go to sleep because he said... well, he said it's up to me, so I said I am going to bed. But if he doesn't insist he's basically telling me he doesn't want to come and therefore he's allowing me to go to sleep."

This is priceless!!!! And also, how you turn everything to trading!!! Hehe! Girls for me are mostly predators as most guys but whit a suite. Some are just getting pratice while others are pro.

My idea is that those people have an ego trouble and need other as spectators, if not their show would be worthless. No spectators, no false impression idea about himlself ("he's so hot!...) to leave to anyone - imagine how this is painfull for him... poor him.

And you, you are the kind of guy who don't care about what others think about you, so he's just mystify about your concept of life. "How come he don't need to impress people to feel find about himself, me I hate myself but at least other like me, or I can dominate them. But this guy like himself and don't care about others... "....

I can be wrong, but I'm a loner too, and most of my 'friend" pass by, make their show, then when its done, they shut down and I start to talk...poor them, muahah!..

You take care!
 
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