my journal

[Yamato]

Check it out! I was about to say "i wish i could be free to gamble and go long on everything because everything is about to rise", and now everything is falling instead. More evidence in favor of "one shot one kill".

In my gambling days, this would have caused me a loss of 2000 because I would have kept saying I was right and would have doubled my contracts.

 

[Yamato]

Well, ok, it's a short day. Another instance of being wrong and not losing money because of it.

Here's the situation for a short:

1) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (3 months to 1 hour): can't go long/short if most correlated markets are heavily overbough/oversold
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes

 

[wprins]

This looks bullish to me. If it is indeed so, my signal will come in another hour. Just like a sniper I'm having to spend the whole day or at least a few hours for just one good shot.

I like how you say "if it is indeed so", this is acknowledgement that you have no apriori attachment to going long, and will only do so if the correct signals/signs present themselves. I think detachment is a very valuable attribute in trading, it's one I struggle with as well.

 

[Yamato]

What makes me say we're going down is the CL at -1.00. The CL is usual at -3 or -3. And now it's leaning towards -3, so it will fall, and if it falls also the ES will fall, and then also the forex will fall.

 

[Yamato]

I like how you say "if it is indeed so", this is acknowledgement that you have no apriori attachment to going long, and will only do so if the correct signals/signs present themselves.

I agree. It's a big change for my trading. As I said, I used to say "i am right, and I will prove it to you" (to the markets).

 

[Yamato]

Short signal could be coming any time. Correlations seem ok after all. Not excessively oversold. I am ok with taking a short signal in about 10 minutes:

1) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (3 months to 1 hour): can't go long/short if most correlated markets are heavily overbough/oversold
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes

Now price just has to cross and re-cross the fast moving average. Forget about my quick GBP discretionary trade today because it didn't get me hooked on trading.

 

[Yamato]

Come on, now everyone go up for a big bounce, and then I'll take the next bearish signal.

 

[Yamato]

Yeah, it's not a bad improvement at all that, despite going about charts and guessing the direction as usual, moving averages are keeping me from going against the trend. Yeah, because for every such guess I made about direction, I would make a trade in my gambling days. And if the market proved me wrong, I would double my position. Instead nowadays I get to be wrong and still make the right trade.

 

[Yamato]

Now, despite all my predictions (about markets being oversold, about wednesdays...), markets are obviously going down and when they go down or up they don't do it for half an hour, so I don't have to regret not being with them from the start of the trend. I will be ok with taking the second wave down. I definitely missed the first wave, which was about 40 ticks on the EUR.

 

[Yamato]

Now I am expecting a 10 minutes 20 ticks rise.

 

[Yamato]

1) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (3 months to 1 hour): can't go long/short if most correlated markets are heavily overbough/oversold
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes

 

[Yamato]

Rising... rising... rise almost over...

 

[Yamato]

1) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (3 months to 1 hour): can't go long/short if most correlated markets are heavily overbough/oversold
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes

 

[Yamato]

good... good.. rise now... don't do it later.

 

[Yamato]

Looking at correlations all the time, definitely taking the next short signal.

 

[Yamato]

rising a bit more than i expected. also the EUR looks quite oversold on the daily charts.

 

[Yamato]

ok, here it comes... here it comes!!!

 

[Yamato]

Rise it out all now, get it out of your system. Don't rise once I am short.

 

[Yamato]

Short signal approaching fast, within 2 minutes or so...

 

[Yamato]

Short entry

And now let's start praying as usual...