my journal

[Yamato]

1) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (both 1 month and 15 minutes)
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes

We're right near the pivot line, so I can't make the SHORT trade that I was going to make. Also, we're too oversold. The pivot line works like a magnet. It either attracts price or it repels it. Your trade cannot start too close to the pivot line, because price could always re-cross it in the other direction. While price is close to that line, it's a period of uncertainty, so you should not trade. It's as if you were to shoot at a target that is continously changing direction. We want a target that's going in just one direction, for at least 20 ticks.

 

[Yamato]

1) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (both 1 month and 15 minutes)
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes

Now we're far enough from the pivot line (1.4754) but only to start a LONG trade, which cannot be started because we're below the slow moving average (we're still in a downtrend, as far as my indicators). So conditions are not good betting in either direction.

 

[Yamato]

I can take a 10 minutes break and brush my teeth. Until we will be below the slow average and above the pivot line, there can be no trading.

What's really in favor of a SHORT trade on the EUR is that the GBP has already fallen down much more than the EUR. Plus, all the markets are down for the day... ES, CL... I am going to wait for definitely a short trade, but 20 ticks lower than where we are right now, beginning at 10 ticks below the pivot line: 1.4744 or lower. Otherwise there's no room for making any shots.

 

[Yamato]

My sniper analogy is turning out to be so good, and so useful to get the point across to my old gambling self, that I was wondering whether I had read it somewhere, but, even though other people are talking about it (people I found with subsequent searches), I really came up with it all by myself on this historic post:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/72598-my-journal-113.html#post997020

I was talking about playing risk, playing videogames... shooting away... and I came up with the concept that I should trade like a sniper. Congratulations to myself.

 

[Yamato]

1) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (both 1 month and 15 minutes)
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes

Everything would be ready for a short trade, except the pivot line which is too close to my takeprofit, actually we would have to cross the pivot line before we can get to the takeprofit, but of course price would slow down before that line, and therefore we cannot make the SHORT trade, because probability is against us.

 

[Yamato]

Price is on that line right now and sure enough it's bouncing on it (1.4754).

 

[Yamato]

Everything looks very short, also the other markets, and the idea of extending by another 20 ticks my takeprofit has crossed my mind (especially since the EUR has fallen much less than the GBP), but I cannot change my rifle or I'll never get good at using it.

 

[Yamato]

Ok, now we're below the pivot line. As long as our next SHORT fast ma crossover signal comes below 1.4744, then I can take it and shoot.

So right now I am waiting for price to fall lower and stay under the fast ma, then recross it and stay on the other side for >= 4 minutes, and then I'll go short at the next fast ma crossover.

 

[Yamato]

Another short signal from the fast ma but we're right on the pivot line again, so I can't take it. By the way, I am also noticing that if I had taken all these past few signals I've been discarding, by now I would have made two trades with 20 ticks profit apiece, but it would have been gambling on my part.

Another thing I am noticing is that without the support from the readers I wouldn't be able to be so disciplined right now. Had I not made all these promises, and resolves, during the past few weeks, right now I would be able to gamble and I would be gambling. But the key to this disciplined behaviour are that I promised discipline to people who care, and that I don't lie: otherwise I could just trade all I want and lie. But that's one discipline I've always followed: not lying. It's kind of a discipline, because I rarely feel tempted to lie. It's become a habit.

Another important thing is all the writing I've been doing about trading like a sniper. You can't write 20 posts about it, and then the next day gamble as usual. Probably, unconsciously, I've written so much about it to force myself to implement the principle, for fear of contradicting myself so much by not doing what I've been almost teaching for the past 20 posts.

Also, watching 5 movies on snipers has delivered some of the message to my unconscious as well. Enemy at the gates, sniper, sniper 2, and now watching sniper 3. And shooter, the one with the happy ending I wrote about.

 

[Yamato]

Look how much screwing around goes near pivot lines. Luckily I've understood this part correctly. Pivots are the example that I can't always say "stay away from the crowd". Everyone talks about pivots and so they work. So one should always be aware of what the crowd is up to. Especially if you're trading with them. I'll go play a game of risk later, because it also has a lot of similitudes with trading.

Somehow while playing risk I never played like one of those "suiciders", that are like gamblers in trading: go for jugular as they say. They either win or die. At risk, I've always been patient. Very patient. I let everyone kill each other usually, and then come out of australia, or irkutsk. But the US people have horrible settings, so it's hard to play the game properly any longer (they defend only with 2 dice, and have increasing armies from card sets).

 

[Yamato]

Ok, this is interesting. Despite all my talking, the markets wanted to go up, or at least it seems so far. So, thanks to the discipline, I was wrong and I didn't lose money. Isn't that amazing? I wanted to go short, but was not allowed by my system, so I might actually end up making money by going LONG in a bit.

 

[Yamato]

Or not. Because now they're looking bearish again. The great thing is if I hadn't valued my bullets and my shots, by now, with this uncertainty, had I been trading, I would have made 4 trades and lost 200 dollars between commissions and slippage. Instead, a reader of this journal taught me about pivots, and so I stayed away from the screwing around that goes on near the pivot lines. So, thanks to trade2win and thanks to that reader.

 

[Yamato]

Oh yes. Definitely going up. The GBP is bullish. By now, had I traded my old gambling "overstretched" method, I would have been LONG 5 contracts, and would have managed to lose money despite being right. Yes, because I'd have opened the first LONG contract two hours ago and 50 ticks higher, the second one an hour ago... and so on. Then I'd be closing all 5 positions at breakeven, out of having been so scared until then (because I'd have had 5 losing positions, and would have been praying for a reversal by now). What a messy situation I got myself out of. Value your shots. Value your one daily bullet.

 

[Yamato]

Oh wow... I was wrong again: we're going down. You see? I've changed my mind 5 times already, but didn't lose anything because i was disciplined and didn't place a single trade. This is definitely the way to go. Observe like a sniper and only shoot when you're positive.

 

[Yamato]

And needless to say we're still screwing around on that same pivot line at 1.4754.

 

[Yamato]

Ok, this is it. It's going down. So it will be one fall, then one rise, crossing the fast ma, staying there >= 4 minutes and then, if I'll be >10 ticks from the pivot line, I'll take the short signal (the fast ma bearish crossover).

 

[Yamato]

All right all right, it got me again: it's going up now. Sixth bad forecast in one hour and still didn't lose any money. By now, the way I used to trade, I would have lost on 5 trades, 500 dollars, and would be so upset that I'd have bet the farm already.

 

[Yamato]

Yesterday, that friend of mine, recently laid off, whom I was trying to teach some trading (despite being unprofitable myself), told me that he integrated pivots into his system. His system was "go long if above zero", and "go short if below zero" (zero means no ticks gained since the previous daily close). Now he changed the system to "go long if above pivot line" and viceversa. He says it makes money. Well, he agrees that when price hesitates a lot around the pivot line he loses money. I wonder how he's doing now and if he's trading (paper trading, with my demo account).

 

[Yamato]

Wow, this trade is almost like giving birth. Let's go over my plan again (in red requirements not met):

FOR A LONG TRADE:
1) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (both 1 month and 15 minutes)
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes

FOR A SHORT TRADE:
1) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
1) it's your first discretionary trade today (you can't trade discretionary outside this system)
2) your entry and your take profit are >=10 ticks away from any pivot lines
3) you've looked at "correlated" chart (both 1 month and 15 minutes)
4) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
5) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes

 

[Yamato]

I'm now forecasting that conditions will be ready for a short trade in about 15 minutes. And I am taking a 10 minutes break.