my journal

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Well, I agree more or less. Even though the idiots seem pretty modest to me, usually. And I don't see how this is just the case with "modern society", rather than the way it's always been. But I do recognize myself among the "intelligent thoughtful people with no self esteem". At the same time I think "I'm a goddamn marvel of modern science" as well, so maybe I'm a talentless idiot.
 
Here I am, back at the office. The guy with the radio didn't come in yet and I am enjoying silence. I came early, at 7.45, and I started working immediately. I wish I could work during the night, so to avoid all people. I should try to work part-time between 5 am and 9 am. That would be perfect.
 
If anyone hasn't done it yet, you should definitely check out ET's journals:
Forums - Journals

There's a journal with 8 million views. I didn't post there first of all because it's not as highlighted as it here, and because it seems like a black and white world: no avatars and so on.
 
Once again, as every working day, I came home, and found that my systems had opened a bunch of trades, and, once again, they were making a huge amount of money. Once again I felt the urge of closing the trades early, because the money seemed so much (+700). Once again, I respected the principle of "non-intervention" (term borrowed from political science), that tells me to not act at all and not interfere at all with my systems because in the long run it's more profitable that way. Because even if it yields me a higher profit today, in the long run, I will abuse my interferences, and will blow out my account (it happened every time). So, once again, like in the past weeks, I followed that principle and didn't touch anything. Pretty soon, that +700 had turned into +1100. Once again, as usual, the urge to close my positions got stronger. Once again, I resisted, and once again, the profit decreased, to +600. Every day the same thing. But I can't count as if I renounced the profit of +1100, because had it been up to me, I would have closed everything at +700. So now I will see where I close the day compared to that +700. So far we've fallen to a low of 600 at the most. I just looked and I'm back at +900. In the past week this principle of "non-intervention" (once again, term borrowed from political science) has benefited me by doubling the profit I would have otherwise made, and by saving me a lot of stress (I cannot do a thing, even in case of technical errors causing missed entries). On the other hand, with the 37 systems I have right now I (purposely) made it impossible to intervene at all in a reasonable way, because it's too hard to go after all trades and close them at the "right" time (which is never the right time anyway). +750 now, which means more than what I'd have made by closing the trades early and manually. I am slowly becoming a convinced supporter of non-interventionism.
 
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Yeah, it was worth it. Overall I made more, once again, by non-intervention than by tampering, as it seems clearer and clearer that we can call it.
 
Yeah, it was worth it. Overall I made more, once again, by non-intervention than by tampering, as it seems clearer and clearer that we can call it.

Well done once again! :clap:

You know, you've achieved something pretty special if you've constructed automated trading systems that are actually reliable and profitable over the duration. In my (obviously more limited) experience, fully automated trading systems can be very complicated and a heck of a lot of work to make robust and reliable, due to all the edge cases and needing to make sure the system will not blow up your account due to some overnight or unexpected rare event. Anyway, well done and keep at it.
 
Well, thanks a lot for your compliments and for the thoughtful motivation accounting for them. I don't know about unexpected events yet. They didn't happen yet. I am willing to lose 50% of my risk capital if they ever happen, considering the speed of my equity. Say you double every x days, and then, every x*3 days (at risk capital * 8), you get an unexpected event that makes you lose half: it would be acceptable. You know, I use leverage, and my emotions are indeed magnified by it, but my decisions are not careless. They'd be reckless if I made them, but I don't make them any more. And of course I am unique and I don't rely on borrowed brains. Not that your quotes were meant for me, but just a comment.
 
Ok, I have news. The guy with the radio and the other lady got moved to another room so now I am alone, with no one bothering me. I don't know for how long. But certainly he got what he deserved. He got moved to a room with 5 people, very noisy room, where everyone is a slacker except the boss, who's there with them in order to make sure they work at least a little bit, and he got moved there because the boss knows he doesn't have to check on me, and that I am particularly disturbed by noise. So finally I get some fair treatment. On the other hand today I'm losing money in the markets, which I can take, after the good previous days.
 
You cannot allow yourself to ever think that you will not make a mistake on a given trade

You see, one important thing that we never get, or that at least I never got is the following. With futures (but also with stocks) there is NEVER a trade worth betting your whole capital, there is never a trade so sure as to bet so much and keep it open so long that if you are wrong you blow out your account. You ALWAYS have to be able to afford being wrong.

That is exactly where my system never went wrong. It always invests a fraction of the capital available on each trade and system, and if it invests everything, it is still able to close the trade long before blowing out the account. On the other hand, even just now, I often see situations where I am so confident that I would double up and triple the investment, and more, with as much capital as I have available. I don't know why it happens, but I always fail to realize that if I happen to be wrong, no matter how small the probability of that, I'll blow out my account. There are NO trades that are worth taking up your whole capital and NO trades that are worth saying "I am so sure that I bet everything I have on it". And guess what: I remember saying this sentence at least 10 times this year, and investing accordingly (and I blew out my account over 5 times in the past year and half). Especially with futures, where every trade that is taking your whole capital is actually taking ten times as much capital as you have.

In other words, the principle is simple, but I still forget it after 12 years of losses, and it is that you cannot enter a trade where if you don't win you're going to lose your whole account (because you will not have the guts to take a smaller loss). You cannot allow yourself to ever think that you will not make a mistake on a given trade. The system can take losses - it doesn't have this problem. Losses do not represent a trauma for him, they do not destabilize it.
 
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Ok, and now the milk has been taken care of as well. Actually, there is a maid / cleaning lady who comes twice a week, but she doesn't like to go shopping and buy milk or water, because they are heavy to carry. Another one of these sluts that I tend to come across... So I had to think of something, because I can't keep going to buy one liter of milk every day, or 2 liters of milk every 2 days, or 3 liters of milk every 3 days, which is the most I can carry. I called and I found a nearby store that delivers to your house (for free). I told them I will buy 30 liters of milk once a month, so I finally solved this problem once and for all. Likewise, I will buy from that store everything I need and fulfill my dream of never having to leave my home again. Here's what I'm gonna tell them when they show up with the milk:

YouTube - Leonardo DiCaprio: The Aviator ( Come in with the Milk ) HD
 
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You cannot allow yourself to ever think that you will not make a mistake on a given trade

You see, one important thing that we never get, or that at least I never got is the following. With futures (but also with stocks) there is NEVER a trade worth betting your whole capital, there is never a trade so sure as to bet so much and keep it open so long that if you are wrong you blow out your account. You ALWAYS have to be able to afford being wrong.

That is exactly where my system never went wrong. It always invests a fraction of the capital available on each trade and system, and if it invests everything, it is still able to close the trade long before blowing out the account. On the other hand, even just now, I often see situations where I am so confident that I would double up and triple the investment, and more, with as much capital as I have available. I don't know why it happens, but I always fail to realize that if I happen to be wrong, no matter how small the probability of that, I'll blow out my account. There are NO trades that are worth taking up your whole capital and NO trades that are worth saying "I am so sure that I bet everything I have on it". And guess what: I remember saying this sentence at least 10 times this year, and investing accordingly (and I blew out my account over 5 times in the past year and half). Especially with futures, where every trade that is taking your whole capital is actually taking ten times as much capital as you have.

In other words, the principle is simple, but I still forget it after 12 years of losses, and it is that you cannot enter a trade where if you don't win you're going to lose your whole account (because you will not have the guts to take a smaller loss). You cannot allow yourself to ever think that you will not make a mistake on a given trade. The system can take losses - it doesn't have this problem. Losses do not represent a trauma for him, they do not destabilize it.
Hey Travis; I'll get back to you on that PM later today...
I did some research and i've found a way to statistically know the probability of a given market moving x% in any given day and i'd worked that into the system to identify the second custom indicator which indicates a totally oversold day based on volatility calculations!
Wooo :cool: We Gon' Be rich Travis :p
 
Well, yeah, hopefully. I am trying to not get too excited, so let me remind myself that since I started trading in 1997 I am still down about 40 thousand euros. And that in 2008-2009 I blew out my account over 5 times. And that I last engaged in discretionary trading about two weeks ago, causing myself (documented live on this journal) a loss of 50% of my risk capital (which is also my entire capital).
 
... I can't keep going to buy one liter of milk every day, or 2 liters of milk every 2 days, or 3 liters of milk every 3 days, which is the most I can carry...

Travis, no offence intended but *why* can't you buy 1 or 2 or 3 liters of milk every one or 2 or 3 days? This is what I/we do, it's just life! Why does it bother you, apart from the fact that it's a chore? (But then, everybody's faced with the same bother there, and after all, there's lots of chores in life, it's not worth getting wound up about them, is it?! Having said that, if you can get a supermarket to deliver then by all means go for it! Though, I must wonder how you're going to deal with 30 liters of milk to keep it from going bad/use it etc.... Do you have a very large fridge? )

BTW, regarding your comment about not being able to afford thinking you're not going to make a mistake: I agree, and that is to me a restatement of the first part of a key traders rule "Cut your losses short...", so good job, you're making these lessons your own.
 
I agree with you on most things. You made me wonder about something I've been wondering about, even today, and that is: is it a good idea to optimize your life and get rid of all chores, so you basically won't have to do anything ever again in your life and everything will be automated?

In principle it would seem a great idea, to automate your life entirely and make it as efficient as possible. But then you will turn into Howard Hughes and say "come in with the milk" repeatedly, and won't have any fun for your entire life. Or even worse you could be in a situation similar to that portrayed in the movie "Matrix" where these guys are actually not living any more, but they lead an imaginary life, which is perfect.

My conclusion is that I don't know... but if I have to draw a conclusion right now I would say that it's only optimal to optimize your life up to a point, after which it gets so boring that you need to get rid of some of the optimization and become more human and imperfect in order to enjoy it a little more.

Also, if you stopped buying milk, and stopped doing other chores, you might lose strength, the strength required to do not only those unpleasant chores but also required to do many other pleasant things. And that in turn may ruin your life, and you will have to resort to your previous lifestyle to make it happy again. For example, if I stopped seeing people by not going shopping, then my only occasion to see them would be when I go swimming, but then I may be so unused to seeing and been seen by people that I might feel uncomfortable getting into the water in front of the whole beach (a bunch of people sitting there and getting tan). I know because it's happened before. So, by going to buy milk every day, despite the fact that it seems a useless pain in the ass, I am actually getting used to being around people, which will benefit me when I have to get into the water and don't want to feel uncomfortable being around so many people.

Yet the perfectionists may not be able to reverse the process of optimizing everything. This is just like what happens to me at the restaurant. Once I've decided what the best dishes are (the best menu choices), and no matter how often I go, I'm always getting those dishes. And, by the way, I always go to that same restaurant (because I rank it as the best one). After about a year or two, I start telling the waitress to decide the menu for me, because I'm bored with my own choices, but I am unable to choose differently, knowing which are my favorite dishes, and yet I am not happy at all with my dinner, even though it's my favorite restaurant and my favorite dishes. So then I'll either get the waitress to pick for me, or I have to go to the second best restaurant, and I'll do that for a year (and always get the same food, again).

I tend to do this to every field of my life, even when I am the beach (my favorite beach), and I enter into the water. I have found the most efficient spot, where I step into the water in the most efficient steps (there's rocks, and other dangers). This was taught to me by my dad once again: that there is a best way to do everything, and that it's not ok to do things randomly, but you must find the most efficient way for whatever you are doing and be methodical about it.

Having said this, I still think the optimization of getting food and milk (I get the milk that expires in a few months, not the fresh one, it tastes just as good to me) delivered to you is an ok optimization, even though the delivering business may get out of control and I may expand it to all aspects of my life, even women (I already did, in part, get women delivered at home, but I couldn't get much done with them, because they weren't prostitutes).

To think of it more, even people who have swimming pools built at their homes, are bringing this optimization quite far. So are people with maids living with them. I mean, not just "sick" perfectionist people like me are in danger but pretty much everyone.
 
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One time Travis; i went food shopping (For first time in ages) and i walked down forgetting about the actual shopping; Got like a trolly full of things to eat, check out i had 11 bags and then thats when i realised i had to walk home with them... It was like that 'Biggest man competition' where they have to carry stuff 10m; stop, have a break, restart. I live about 1 mile away from that shop aswell; was totally embarrasing walking home; It was a case of running with 6; Dropping, getting the other 5 and catching up.

:(
 
Wow, interesting how that doesn't prevent you from being a good trader. I could never forget something like that. I am constantly calculating all the consequences of my actions, even when I sleep. That's why I can't sleep. I just got up in the middle of the night because a dream didn't go as planned.

There was this girl, C.P.. It ended like this. My former girlfriend was leaving the runway in her car. She was allowed there because she was a travel agent. I was supposed to board on a plane alone and she had walked me there, but as we were on our way to the plane, she had made friends with other male passengers, so I was upset and I had let her go into the plane, while talking to them, and didn't actually go in myself. But she carried my bag inside it.

The plane left with my bag and without me. She told me so while sitting at the wheel of her car. I told her I knew and I didn't care because I only had some swimsuit and goggles in it. Some strangers were leaning towards her and me and were listening to our conversation, and I said to them: "Do you mind giving me some privacy and letting me talk to... whom I still consider my girlfriend?!". I was really upset this time so they stopped looking and listening.

She was slightly crying as usual, but as usual that didn't mean that she loved me or that she wanted any kind of future with me. That's what drives me mad about this girl: she leads me on and makes me waste a lot of time trying in vain. So she was crying and her makeup was melting and it made her look ugly. By the way, I would never cry for someone I don't love, and I don't even cry for someone I love, so I guess to me loving only means owning that person, or rather having her at my disposal. So she was crying and her makeup was melting and it made her look ugly, but for some reason I still wanted to own her, which is to say "I loved her".

Then I woke up, maybe because there was some garbage truck in the street below me or maybe because I understood, once again, that our love story was over, which as usual wouldn't prevent me from trying to get her back in the future, just like I've been trying to find out how to be profitable with discretionary trading, and have been failing, but still persistently trying for 12 years. Until now since maybe I found a substitute: automated trading. Maybe I should go for automated loving.

But it will have to be manually executed by me. It would consist of an excel sheet with a bunch of rules to be followed at all times. But now I'm thinking that it wouldn't work, because the essential part of automated trading is back-testing and that cannot be done with automated loving. I don't have the data first of all of my girlfriends' actions, and the girlfriends are like a few stocks, whereas to understand the trend I need the indexes, which I do not have. Also, whereas stock indexes are independent from my actions, so I can count on them starting somewhere and getting somewhere else even though I trade them, girlfriends will change their actions depending on my actions. Why can't I just buy a woman, with lifelong installments? Or rather rent one, which is the same thing? Now I'll try to go back to sleep. How much does she want? How much do I need to buy C.P.? Will I then still want her, once I can buy her? I hope so. I hope so both, that I can buy her and still want her then.
 
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