Best Thread My Journal at a Prop house

[pozzyp]

Nothing really exciting happening with this GBP trade. Price is slowly ticking down to the base of the range which I have marked of at 1.5187. Sooo if it gets there then we are looking to trade the breakout however it also presents the opportunity for a naughty range scalp. If price tests that level and bounces then ill be looking to buy and hopefully ride it up to the top of the range.

I have several ways determining if price has bounced or not and I'll post the setup if we Ever get there. The same theory can also be applied to shorting at the top of the range. While targets arn't large in this trade plan there is the potential to grab several bites of the cherry and can turn a slow day into a profitable one.

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

GBP trade right at its base / support / lower range, whatever you wish to call it. Very tricky trade this close to US GDP date. While most news doesn't bother a figure like this can spike the market which might not change direction or the path of price but it is enough to spike through my stop. So going to have to trade this with extreme caution and there is a chance that I wont take the position, frustrating as that may be. But as the old saying goes "better to be out the market wishing you were in, than in wishing you were out"

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

26 February

GBP March 10 Contract:

GBP breaks out of the range however I didn't take the trade. There where a few reasons why, firstly it was right on the border of having done 65-70% of its average day move (A theory which is not mine but a good one none the less and I think there are a few posts on here about it) But ultimately the reason was being a little to close to the GDP figure. As I said earlier I'm not usually too bothered about news announcements and figures however major figures such as GDP, NFP and interest rate decisions are enough to keep me out of the market, mainly just to avoid being stopped out by a spike. If I'm already in a trade there is not much I can do but I didn't want to take a position this close to the number


This time it worked out in my favor as the trade would of been stopped out had I taken it however it could of just as easily come off and been profitable.

so had I taken the trade in the usual way. Red circle marks the breakout low, -2 round down to give an entry of 1.5180 (red line) stop goes above the pullback high +2 round up (blueline) at 95 and as you can see I would of just come about 2 ticks shy of the scale but would of been stopped out.

On a side note these arn't the only trade setups I'm taking just the only ones im posting at the moment, didn't want you to think I sat here all day doing nothing.

pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

The last two weeks have been made pretty tough due to some market chop and being as it's Friday and I'm cream crackerd think I'm going to head in for an early one. Managed to juuuuuussstt scrape a profit this week so if thats as bad as things get then I'm not complaining.

I hope you have enjoyed my first week of posting woooooop! and not found it too boring as I know I have run the same set up a few times. I'll probably continue to post these next week just so I've truly exhausted it and then will start to post some other stuff too.

Time for a few beers and prize fighter on the telly

Hope you have a good weekend

pozzy

 

[timothy0387]

Lol, would make for a pretty uneventful day otherwise...

What other set ups do you trade off? Do you trade candelstick patterns?

 

[pozzyp]

Look for a few different setups but they are hard to talk about properly without posting charts and stuff. Was just going to go through them as the journal progresses.

But yeah use some candlestick patterns, breaks of swing highs and lows, often ill scalp the range that I have been posting up as well as waiting for the breakout, and use fibs from time to time to.

To be honest though I still don't place many trades a day. Today I only placed 4 so far, I had a 5th lining up on the Euro and stepped out for 2 mins to make a phone call came back and I had missed it, TYPICAL!!! my own fault! can at least take a little comfort in the fact I would of been right, Comfort doesn't pay to well though

Im only trading two pairs at present so it does keep the volume of trades down. When I was at home I was trading 6 so was a lot more active.

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

Morning guys,

Hope you all had a good weekend....

Fresh start to the month for me so hoping I get off to a good start.

Following on from a similar theme last week I have marked off the swing highs and lows on a 60 min Euro chart.

The red circles clearly mark price making higher highs and higher lows which for me is an uptrend. The pink circle marks the break of a previous swing low. This for me is the first point in time that price has the potential to turn around and signals that there are sellers coming into the market. Straight off the back of that price rallies and makes a higher high (second pink circle). This is whats making conditions for me tough at the moment as the market is really chopping about and flipping my intraday bias. One minute price is making a lower low and so I'm thinking about shorting and then a higher high comes barging in and I'm looking for the long opportunity. This is also whats producing these range bound setups for me as I Mark off the previous swing high and swing low and wait for a break to either a higher high (possible resumption of the uptrend) or a lower low (possible start of a downtrend).

This is just my opinion and how I like to trade. Essentially I am waiting for price action and market action to align. Market action gives me the directional bias and price action gives me my entry.


Thanks for all the comments

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

Just hearing round here that the GBP is getting smashed on the back of this AIG deal. Not sure how accurate that is but thought it was worth a post anyways.

I'm also told this is a new 9 1/2 month low.

Pozzy

 

[Black Swan]

This is just my opinion and how I like to trade. Essentially I am waiting for price action and market action to align. Market action gives me the directional bias and price action gives me my entry.

Pozzy

:smart:

 

[pozzyp]

Nice little bit of action there.

The Euro broke down fairly violently and unfortunately I didn't manage to get a good entry on it so I let the trade go. I never like to chase a trade and I was just a little late so decided to leave it. I did the same thing last week as I posted and it worked in my favor as the trade would of been stopped out this week it would of hit targets nicely so it was a shame but it's all swings and roundabouts.

The GBP however was a different story and I caught a nice piece of the Pie. I know I'm posting this after the event so it's very easy to look like I'm trading with hindsight but it obviously takes me a little while to write up the trade as well as post it and also my first priority is my own trades. But I did take this trade and I hope that you can see from the setups that I have been posting that it all adds up.

So again I'm establishing a market bias, in this case from the hourly chart as I'm only looking for a cheeky scalp, if you have longer term objectives you would use longer term charts.

The red circles marking off lower lows and lower highs showing a down trend. There was a little point where things looked like they could turn around (marked in yellow box) on Friday morning which actually pushed me long at one point but sitting down this morning the direction was still down. I marked off the previous swing high and swing low and was waiting for a break. This isn't to say that things were massively range bound its just what I was using as a reference to trigger my trades. A break to a new swing low shows the downtrend is still going and a break to a new swing high could suggest a change in direction.

Price moves to the downside making a new lower low which for me means there is still further downside potential. Market action for me is therefore bearish so I drop to a lower time frame to find my short entry based on price action.

I took the breakout low (red circle) -2 and round down to give me an entry of 1.5070 (red line) My stop is placed above the pull back high +2 and round up to 1.5095 (light blue line) and as the chart shows the order triggered and rapidly sold off.

Price continues to make lower lows and lower highs (red circles) selling off nice untill we get a higher low, higher high (Pink circles) this is showing there is a chance price could turn around and so I manage my stop to the top of the higher high + 2 and round up to 1.4915 (second blue line) which for me has just been stopped out. So a nice 155 ticks (thanks for that David) on the trade.

I hope that has all come out ok as I have tried to power through it so if there are any mistakes please let me know.

Thanks

Pozzy.

 

[DavidS]

I make that 155 pips not 95... unless I've missed something

Great discipline in your trading.

A couple of questions if I may:

If the first lower high (after entry) had not formed before price came back to your entry point would you have been out for a scratch trade?

Relative to earlier price action cable was falling like a stone, were you not tempted to maybe scale out half at around 1.5020ish?

And finally, did your palms not get just a bit itchy when the price fell spectacularly by 170 pips in about 3 minutes at about 11.37?

I appreciate all my observations are with the benefit of hindsight, but I'm trying to get a feel for how you felt about the price action at the time.

Thanks, David

 

[pozzyp]

I make that 155 pips not 95... unless I've missed something

Great discipline in your trading.

A couple of questions if I may:

If the first lower high (after entry) had not formed before price came back to your entry point would you have been out for a scratch trade?

Relative to earlier price action cable was falling like a stone, were you not tempted to maybe scale out half at around 1.5020ish?

And finally, did your palms not get just a bit itchy when the price fell spectacularly by 170 pips in about 3 minutes at about 11.37?

I appreciate all my observations are with the benefit of hindsight, but I'm trying to get a feel for how you felt about the price action at the time.

Thanks, David

Thanks for flagging that David read it off my log wrong (too excited I think)

Not 100% sure what you mean about the first question. The stop is placed above the first pullback so if price had retraced after getting me in then I would of been stopped out for a loss. Due to the nature of that pull back, it itself is a lower high which is why I place the stop there as if this is broken price has made a higher high and therefore I don't want to be short. If after the trade had triggered a lower high formed and then later was broken I would manage the stop to that break high. Sorry if that sounds a little disjointed but it's hard to write it out.

I usually do scale out parts of my trade either in 3rds or by 2/3rds at half the stop size so it locks in profit as the move goes and reduces risk.

Obviously it was a fairly unusual move and I had no clue it was going to fall that far. Palms where sweating, trigger finger itching and everything in my body screaming to close the trade thinking "surely it cant keep going" but the one thing I've learnt is always Stick to the plan. The bottom of that move down for me was at 1.4778 so I gave up a fair amount of profit waiting for the full higher high pattern to develop and give me the exit signal. But thats the exact logic that kept me in the trade stopping me from cashing out early so it pays off. I actually find it easier now to stick to the plan than to deal with the frustration and anger of not sticking to it and getting bitten because of it.

Thanks for the comments and support let me know if that answered your questions ok.

Pozzy

 

[DavidS]

Hi Pozzy thanks for clarifying, I think

I was a bit obscure in my question, sorry. Would you have been out at 2/3 on half stop loss (+13) and 1/3 break even if the price had reversed after having gone down to around 1.5050?

 

[pozzyp]

Hi Pozzy thanks for clarifying, I think

I was a bit obscure in my question, sorry. Would you have been out at 2/3 on half stop loss (+13) and 1/3 break even if the price had reversed after having gone down to around 1.5050?

No probs mate, glad you are interested enough to ask.

If the stop hadn't been moved the last 3rd would of been - 25 not break even.

So on a 3 Lot position 2 lots would of been closed at +13 ( 26 ticks to 1 lot) and the last lot would of been stopped out at -25. So the trade overall would of been +1.

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

02 March 2010:

Morning Guys,

So some very nice moves yesterday on both the Euro and GBP making for a great start to the month.

Keeping with the same method of trading I'm looking at align market action with price action.

Using the 60 min chart to gage what market action is doing I have marked off the previous swing and high and swing low and I'll be waiting for a break of either one. Due to size of this range it is a fairly unlikely that I will see a valid breakout trade today. However I will be looking to scalp the range.

Essentially the swing high and low are areas of support and resistance. So if price reaches either extreme and turns around then there is full grounds to trade the bounce and I'll use price action to determine the entry if this happens.

The same set up applies for the GBP except the range is even larger.

I fully appreciate that the range of this trade is around 400 ticks and that it could take a while for that range to break or even provide a valid trade however thats the trade plan for this particular method and therefor I'll stick to it. You don't have to run this on a 60 min chart you can drop down to a lower time frame and trade it. There are a few other threads on here that go through a 15 minute break out plan which obviously is going to give you more setups throughout the day.

For me on a GBP trade like this I mark off the points on my chart and then move onto something else. That way if a trade setsup I get a little alert and I'm not sat around all day / week waiting and watching every tick.

Thanks

pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

Ok sooo its the third time in a about a week that i have missed another Euro scalp (different trade setup) due to being away from the desk very very very annoying!! but shrug it off and onto the next opportunity.

so Euro at the base of its range, and even though it hasn't touched, it is close enough for me to drop to a lower time frame. I am now looking to see if price breaks through or if it reverses and the support level holds.

As I was typing this Euro has broken out, and had a little go at pushing down.

I took the break out low -2 and round down in the usual way giving me an entry of 1.3430 which as we can see didn't trigger and price has now retraced back into its range.

On the back of that there was a little reverse pattern as price broke a previous swing high.

Now even though price broke out of the range I had marked due to the fact that no short trade was triggered I am going to still take the range as valid. Which also means that the reversal trade at the base of the range is valid.

Entry is above the break of a previous swing high (pink circle) 1.3480 and the stop is at the pullback 1.3460 (second red line) which coincidentally is the base of the range we had marked out. As this is a range scalp I want to get the risk off as soon as possible so my scale out is going to be at 1.3490 (green line) which for me has just filled so the trade is now risk free and running so lets hope I can ride it all the way to the top of the range.

back to waiting for now.

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

Euro trade running nicely. Break of a swing low meant there was a little trade management needed.

Stop has been moved up to 1.3520 on the break of a previous swing low. This locks in +40 on the last 3rd of the trade so good stuff.


Thanks

Pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

Stop moved again on the Euro trade and its looking like it might run out of steam.

Pink circle marks the break of the previous swing low, Stop is now at 1.3540 locking in +60 on the last 3rd of the trade.

pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

Euro proving to be a bit of a star!!! Profit target on the Euro at 1.3630 which is 10% of the range down from the top and then rounded down.

The stop is looking a little scary all the way down at 1.3540 and I am very tempted to move it up and lock in some more profit. BUUUUt going to stick to the plan as its got me this far.

pozzy

 

[pozzyp]

Euro stop moved again on the break of a previous swing low to 1.3580 and stopped out pretty much straight after.

100 ticks on the last 3rd of the trade and 10 ticks on the other 2/3rds (20 ticks to one lot) So overall 120 tick trade to one lot. Not bad for what started out as a little range scalp. Took a little bit of luck on the way with some Greece news which I reckon ran things an extra 30 - 40 ticks up for me but still stuck to the plan and it paid so happy days. :cheesy:

Pozzy