Today's trade list includes EURZAR off the back of continued Euro stupidity and SnP downgrading ZAR deeper into junk status (buying a pullback for another test of 17). No other major news today. Will be spending the day catching up on central bank research and preparing for data releases later this week. Also on the cards is news on progress of brexit which if deterioration occurs will be a seller of GBPUSD and also on the cards is news on US tax reforms.
a couple of months of hard work.
Sorry haven't updated in a while. Got out of the USDZAR trade at break even (it just wasn't going anywhere and was my last swing trade)
Last week i took 3 news trades trades (the strategy i will focus on going forward)
GBPUSD - off of news on brexit trade talks moving forward (25 pips profit)
NZDUSD - Worst business confidence in years (20 pips profit)
USDCAD - brilliant employment and gdp data (65 pips)
Today nothing on schedule but will be listening for brexit news
Last week i took 3 news trades trades (the strategy i will focus on going forward)
GBPUSD - off of news on brexit trade talks moving forward (25 pips profit)
NZDUSD - Worst business confidence in years (20 pips profit)
USDCAD - brilliant employment and gdp data (65 pips)
Today nothing on schedule but will be listening for brexit news
What happened?
Nowler
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pfftt...been wondering the same thing myself...
Adding to positions that have not actually went anywhere probably isnt helping...
I was only moaning about my win/loss ratios over this recent bad habit the other day but it's not just the win/loss ratio that gets hurt. Out of the 5% down this week, and in my own opinion/perception without looking at the stats, I reckon if I just cut out adding to positions that are still pretty much at the same price I already just entered at, then it would have been... 2% loss?>, not 5%
I don't find myself so frustrated at my trading stupidity often, but this week...
Have you ever felt like punching yourself? in your own nose? Hard!?
🙄
It was only 1 week out of 30 thus far... but still... I am my own worst critic... I feel like I should heavily penalise myself, in a trading sense 🙂 not in a kinky way... not that I have anything against kinkyness 😉 but yeah... I feel I am beyond the point of making such mistakes as I already came across it many times over the months when reading/studying.
Anyway...
On a side note.
I actually thought the NFP was last Friday!
I wasn't trading last Friday so that was the last I thought about it until I was doing some looking forward for this week gone.
I thought it was the first Friday of every month?
Okay here is probably the most important tip I can give you. If you don't have a good reason to place a trade then don't. If you are in a trade that's going nowhere or losing then don't add to it, instead you should consider cutting it. We can't get every trade right and no way of knowing which will end up taking money from you.
Do you have a trading plan for each trade? What is your strategy to get into a trade? The only way you can move on from here is to try and understand what has gone wrong from the point of you deciding to execute a trade to the point you added and then closed.
Nowler
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I completely agree.
I had no valid reason to add to quite a few of them.
I did have a trade plan for each initial entry but it's adding to the positions that's the big problem here. Stops too tight also perhaps...? 😕
I'll tackle the adding to positions going nowhere and also keep an eye on my stop placement because I have been trading a lot more on the 1-5min TF lately and have been placing my stops in that TF. Stops too tight is not something I have had much issues with in the past as my typical trading TF was 15mins and up. I may have changed too much at once perhaps... deposited more into the account (my trade unit size is different), I reduced my leverage from 50/1 down to 10/1 (margin requirements changed dramatically), and then the venturing down to the 1-5min TF's.
Before now I had somewhat of an unwritten rule where my stops would nearly always be 20 pips or more but since I ventured down to the 1-5min stomping ground, my stops have been more like 3-8pips...
Trading in the 1-5min is a different beast to the 15min... a "hickup" can just plough through my stops, whereas this would be less likely to take me out if in a 15-30min TF.
As I type this, I wonder why I am even on the 1-5min TF's...
I was doing ok up higher when my trades had room to breathe.
I guess it's because of this new adding to positions on pullbacks/pauses in price strategy...
I started doing this in the 15min TF or so but I noticed if there was no pullback on the 15min then if I zoomed in to 5min or even 1min then I could see pullbacks/pauses in price. I guess I just got greedy and caught in a bad habit loop.
I'll address it this coming week.
I think it's a common mistake to make during the learning years. Start taking note on when you break the rules and you will see a trend develop. Be methodical in sticking to the process which should include zero market time outside of the process. The moment you do you are operating on emotions and that can lead to a 5% loss without breaking a sweat. I feel those urges too but my number one rule protects me from being stupid. I highly recommend doing the same. It should ease over time as you let the strategy work and you see the results. Another important tip is to aim for something realistic like a percentage gain a week but don't be rigid in this just use it as a guide. If you can gain half a percent a week that will be 20 percent gain on your account over a 40 week period. You will be surprised how few pips you need to achieve a 0.5% gain.
Keep at it and start being more methodical. It will force you to do things you currently don't do which can be a good thing on the path to progress.
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
Keep at it and start being more methodical. It will force you to do things you currently don't do which can be a good thing on the path to progress.
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
FOMC week -13/12
FXX,
Interestingly the probabilities for a rate hike has changed somewhat under Fed watch
The market is starting to price in another 25 bp surprise. I was thinking of positioning at least a long USD into FOMC. Basically buy the rumor and sell the fact.
What are your thoughts?
FXX,
Interestingly the probabilities for a rate hike has changed somewhat under Fed watch
The market is starting to price in another 25 bp surprise. I was thinking of positioning at least a long USD into FOMC. Basically buy the rumor and sell the fact.
What are your thoughts?
FOMC week -13/12
FXX,
Interestingly the probabilities for a rate hike has changed somewhat under Fed watch
The market is starting to price in another 25 bp surprise. I was thinking of positioning at least a long USD into FOMC. Basically buy the rumor and sell the fact.
What are your thoughts?
Hey Brumby, been a while are you keeping well?
I noticed that but not giving it any serious thought. The fed are highly focused on wage growth and inflation and both have been soft. I just can't see them raising by more than expected especially when the speeches have all reiterated that slow and steady hikes and data dependent and the fed are not in the business of surprising.
Quick update for the week. The only trade so far has been tonight with the fed where i took 28 pips long GBPUSD. Looking ahead to ausi employment, UK policy tomorrow followed by USA core sales. if nothing comes up then ill be shutting down trading until Jan.
Last edited:
Nowler
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I've been looking into sentiment a bit lately.
Been using the net long/short of the broker IG which is available on the DailyFX site mainly but I was thinking that maybe I should combine the net long/short from the 2-3 biggest retail brokers in the world and then funnel it all through something and into 1 combined indication of global retail trader sentiment. Using a contrarian strategy to capitalize.