My Experience

pinto1uk1

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I am 26 years old and started to trade in the summer of 2009. Realising the fact that my savings were being depreciated year upon year, I decided to invest in the stock market in order to turnover my money. This is my trading experience to date.

Just three days after deciding to invest in the stock market, I was holding shares in a few companies. This was my first mistake, rushing into the stock market and trying to make money quickly. Looking back, I should I have spent considerable time reading around the stock markets and grasping the basics of shares and the factors which influence them. I would also recommend anyone contemplating share trading to set up a ‘dummy’ share dealing account, where potential investors can try share dealing without actually losing any money. If I had done this, I would have saved a lot of money.

Within the first few months, my portfolio was down and I was selling shares at losses. One of the principal lessons I have learnt is that it is very easy to lose money on the stock market without research. Making money in the stock market is not easy and without research, I would say it is incredibly difficult. During the first months of my trading, I spent no time on research and chased many stocks from the ‘top risers’ list and from tips from the bulletin boards hoping for quick gains. I am still paying for some of these mistakes, as I am ‘locked’ into many shares. Some of these ‘quick gains’ are currently down 30% in my portfolio. I have learnt not to trust everyone on the bulletin boards and learnt that everything posted on these boards are not entirely true.
Watching my portfolio depreciate day by day was very difficult for me. I was always trying to recover my losses and taking wild punts into the ‘Risky / High reward’ category. Some of my other mistakes included, buying a share on a RNS not realising the well known phrase ‘buy on speculation, sell on news’.

Emotions can play a key part in buying and selling. I still have to master this aspect of trading. Controlling these emotions and to ensure they don’t cloud your judgement in buying or selling is a key aspect of trading.

I am learning the hard way, but in some strange way glad to have made the mistakes this early in my journey. Thankfully for me, I have met some great people via the bulletin boards who have helped me a great deal. I have been given support, advice and guidance which have helped me increase my knowledge in share trading. I have witnessed some shocking behaviour on bulletin boards with people attempting to drive prices up or down with lies and false information.

For the past few months, I have been in the process of restructuring my portfolio by reducing, or at times replacing some of my losers with companies where I see future growth future potential. It will be one year this summer 2010 when I started my journey, and I am confident I will be able to turn my portfolio around. I believe in learning from my mistakes and acquiring more knowledge will enable me to become a successful investor.

I have recently discovered http://www.share-exchange.com which contains research resources and some very useful links and information on share trading. The articles appear to be written by very experienced share dealers and private investors and have been of great use to me.
 
A lesson learnt, hopefully. Now you may progess from a "Gambler" to a "Trader". Good luck! (What AM I saying!) ;)
 
"I am confident I will be able to turn my portfolio around"

So long as you consider that we may now be in a bear market for some considerable time to come.
Individual companies rarely move against the tide.

Glenn
 
"I am confident I will be able to turn my portfolio around"

So long as you consider that we may now be in a bear market for some considerable time to come.
Individual companies rarely move against the tide.

Glenn

What in particular makes you think that we are in a bear market ?
 
What in particular makes you think that we are in a bear market ?

First off I did say 'may' be.
What I was trying to do was to alert Pinto to the possibility, and to the fact that the overall market determines the direction of most shares, so if you are long in a bear market you will suffer loss, and therefore you must have a plan in case it is a bear market.
Personally I believe that it is, for technical and fundamental reasons, and I have large positions on the short side, as well as being long $/£. I don't anticipate owning shares in anything for a long time to come.
Some reasons:-
I am generally a contrarian.
Mkts were overbought.
Volatility has shot up, which is what happens when the bear comes along
The dollar is on the rise against other currencies, meaning that people are getting out of risky things like stocks and commodities and into something safer - which many need anyway to keep paying their bills and debts.
I see nothing in the future that might indicate economic growth or reduction of debt for a long time to come, only a worsening global situation which is simply too big for governments to fix.

Glenn
 
First off I did say 'may' be.
What I was trying to do was to alert Pinto to the possibility, and to the fact that the overall market determines the direction of most shares, so if you are long in a bear market you will suffer loss, and therefore you must have a plan in case it is a bear market.
Personally I believe that it is, for technical and fundamental reasons, and I have large positions on the short side, as well as being long $/£. I don't anticipate owning shares in anything for a long time to come.
Some reasons:-
I am generally a contrarian.
Mkts were overbought.
Volatility has shot up, which is what happens when the bear comes along
The dollar is on the rise against other currencies, meaning that people are getting out of risky things like stocks and commodities and into something safer - which many need anyway to keep paying their bills and debts.
I see nothing in the future that might indicate economic growth or reduction of debt for a long time to come, only a worsening global situation which is simply too big for governments to fix.

Glenn

:) Maybe is a silly word though isn't it ? Maybe it'll go up, maybe it'll go down, maybe it will stay flat... Pointless word.

As to your reasoning; Thanks for sharing... I agree that volatility tends to mark bearish conditions rather than bullish - But are you basing this data on a historical norm throughout history - Or on the recent 2008 crash ?

Markets are overbought against FAIR VALUE yeah; in terms of indicator overbought and all that i deem as unimportant.

Dollar rising + Falling commodities = Disinflation (which is good for bonds; stocks generally track bonds in a non-deflation environment)

Low interest rates; again strong for bonds + stocks...

The situation you have cited; is very similar to 2009 - The main difference now is that commodities appear to be falling (Suggesting disinflation) and obviously the effect of quantitive easing are going to be gone... So i guess the question is;

What are the effects of disinflation + NO QE going to have on the stock market; while i think in general a low I.R + disinflation has to be positive for bonds right ?

I haven't fully studied the effects of disinflation on the stock market; but ofcourse no QE is a bad thing.

Cool; thanks for your opinion.

Debt + No economic growth was occuring in 2009 and stock markets rose, am i correct in thinking that therefore you are of the belief this was 100% caused by quantitive easing ?

And what do you think that inflation had to do with last years movements ?


My main focus on preparing shorts at the moment is in watching the C.O.T report; historically the 'big boys' have always been short in the market crashes.
 
:) Maybe is a silly word though isn't it ? Maybe it'll go up, maybe it'll go down, maybe it will stay flat... Pointless word.

As to your reasoning; Thanks for sharing... I agree that volatility tends to mark bearish conditions rather than bullish - But are you basing this data on a historical norm throughout history - Or on the recent 2008 crash ?

Markets are overbought against FAIR VALUE yeah; in terms of indicator overbought and all that i deem as unimportant.

Dollar rising + Falling commodities = Disinflation (which is good for bonds; stocks generally track bonds in a non-deflation environment)

Low interest rates; again strong for bonds + stocks...

The situation you have cited; is very similar to 2009 - The main difference now is that commodities appear to be falling (Suggesting disinflation) and obviously the effect of quantitive easing are going to be gone... So i guess the question is;

What are the effects of disinflation + NO QE going to have on the stock market; while i think in general a low I.R + disinflation has to be positive for bonds right ?

I haven't fully studied the effects of disinflation on the stock market; but ofcourse no QE is a bad thing.

Cool; thanks for your opinion.

Debt + No economic growth was occuring in 2009 and stock markets rose, am i correct in thinking that therefore you are of the belief this was 100% caused by quantitive easing ?

And what do you think that inflation had to do with last years movements ?


My main focus on preparing shorts at the moment is in watching the C.O.T report; historically the 'big boys' have always been short in the market crashes.

"Maybe is a silly word though isn't it ? Maybe it'll go up, maybe it'll go down, maybe it will stay flat... Pointless word."
Not if you're prepared to put your money on it, which I have. And you ?
"I agree that volatility tends to mark bearish conditions rather than bullish - But are you basing this data on a historical norm"
Yes
"in terms of indicator overbought and all that i deem as unimportant."
Some things you ignore at your peril imho.
"100% caused by quantitive easing ? "
Absolutely - a sticking plaster applied in a panic.
"disinflation has to be positive for bonds right"
If you like lending money to a broken business. What is happening is deflation, not disinflation imho.
"no QE is a bad thing."
Or QE is pouring good money after bad.
"And what do you think that inflation had to do with last years movements ?"
Which do you mean ? The down or the up ? Either way inflation was/is not an issue. People assume that QE will cause inflation, but sometimes the problem is just too big for QE to fix

Glenn
 
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