Microsoft Flew on Earnings, Then Tanked. Could you tell it would tank?

Shawty_

Junior member
23 1
I know I might be asking the question of the century, but why not?

Can you name the indicators you saw in Microsoft's chart to reflect the impending selloff?

Was it a political event that fueled the selloff? Could you tell it wouldn't rebound, and if not, what strategy did you rely on to tell it would continue to go down?


1st chart - I've highlighted today's date and the end point of the selloff - it came back to the 20 period EMA.

2nd chart - 5 min chart highlighted start of the day.

Let's be clear. MSFT has been doing very well for the past few years and this year especially. It beat earnings and then sold off.

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Trader333

Moderator
8,502 881
Volume was the key in my view for the sell off. Because it gapped up by such a large amount then many investors would have sold very quickly knowing that the gap was very likely going to be closed.
 

fibo_trader

Senior member
2,228 44
SELL SELL SELL ..... Investor signal. Has zip to do with Trading.

2009 - 2019 = a phony "b" wave - clue: (1) small triangle at start of wave in 2010-2011 (2) declining volume in the 3rd wave = no-no. Parabolic mania rise will be totally retraced back to $15/share and lower. End of Era.

The job of "b" wave is to rope them all in. Once in, then Wave C takes over and kills'em all.

Now we wait pay-shuntly for the trigger to fire. What trigger? Mr. Softie has arrived at 261.8%. Nobody has noticed - this is as it should be.

Hide & watch.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,306 975
I trade long-term. I will only be long if the 50EMA is sloping upwards. If I had been in Microsoft I would have been long prior to the results. I normally haven't in the past exited stock positions prior to results. In this case, the 50EMA was sloping upwards prior to the results and price has now gone 1.5 % higher than the close of the day before the results. So the results have so far done nothing more than confirm the basis for the existing uptrend.

I think your attention is on the short-term and you're missing the bigger picture. So your question is a good one but the wrong one, even if you get the right answer.
 

fibo_trader

Senior member
2,228 44
SELL SELL SELL ..... Investor signal. Has zip to do with Trading.

2009 - 2019 = a phony "b" wave - clue: (1) small triangle at start of wave in 2010-2011 (2) declining volume in the 3rd wave = no-no. Parabolic mania rise will be totally retraced back to $15/share and lower. End of Era.

The job of "b" wave is to rope them all in. Once in, then Wave C takes over and kills'em all.

Now we wait pay-shuntly for the trigger to fire. What trigger? Mr. Softie has arrived at 261.8%. Nobody has noticed - this is as it should be.

Hide & watch.


SLAM DUNK! :cool: :whistle: 5 waves up in the last Wave are over.


Now remember that this slam dunk is no ordinary one as the Call is on the everlasting existential Microsoft reign. Its a 40 year trend that Fibo is calling over, not just a piddly little 5 month trend.



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Signalcalc

Veteren member
3,625 764
SLAM DUNK! :cool: :whistle: 5 waves up in the last Wave are over.


Now remember that this slam dunk is no ordinary one as the Call is on the everlasting existential Microsoft reign. Its a 40 year trend that Fibo is calling over, not just a piddly little 5 month trend.



View attachment 266581
You have indeed hit upon the golden ratio, well done young padawan.
 

fibo_trader

Senior member
2,228 44
Mr. Softie has been a very special fella for so long that he is a boon to Fibo to figure out something of even more importance regarding his character and backbone.

Softie topped in 1999 or in 2019? hahahaha. There's not enough DATA on left side of chart to do justice to this magnificente, buenissimo outfit so I gots to be cautious here. But the end result might be the same regardless because if 1999 was NOT the top, then the 2009 low completed wave 4 down and the rise into 2019 finished wave 5. However if 1999 was the top then 2009 was Wave A down with the rise to 2019 a Wave B as I pointed out earlier.

Therefore regardless which, we are going down into at least the vicinity of 2009 low.

But a step by step approach might be better for the shorties - shorties? does anybody think we shorties are even going to get aid for our troubles? I think not. The exchanges will appropriate accounts left and right when the panic gets underway. Still a ways away.

Target #1 = previous 4th @ $93
Target #2 = previous 4th higher degree @ $40
Target #3 = previous 4th higher degree @ $15



Alternatively a grid from 1986 to the top also gives the 2009 low at the low end of the retracement of 88.3%, a Fibo number of considerable import - a magnet for Manias.
 

fibo_trader

Senior member
2,228 44
op asked ...................

"
I know I might be asking the question of the century, but why not?

Can you name the indicators you saw in Microsoft's chart to reflect the impending selloff? "




These are the indicators I saw but they relate to a much larger selloff than you are referring to, but both are selloffs anyway

(1) 261.8% Fibo Extension hit - we did not quite get there but close enough but the key thing was that at the sister level, 161.8% Softie rebounded nicely at this livel so it gave me a clue that 261.8% is the next level to wait for and watch like a hawk.

(2) 261.8% extrapolation of the wave from the 1999 high to 2009 low, near perfect hit. I got out my fancy 2-gun rig about this time and oiled and greased it - I know-ed something was going to happen.

(3) Nobody that I know of cott this but Softie telegraphed a wedge aka Ending Diagonal Triangle to me around April 2019. You see, this wedge is difficult to gauge because it is so close to a parallel channel as to be deceiving, so it toook time to discover that the lines were converging. Softie tricked me real good here. I should have guessed something was afoot because there wer already 4 waves in the formation, therefore the next one, the 5th would be the last and softie's reign would be over. I would be said? Yeah, very much so. Softie is a very special cat.

(4) The wave relationships within the runup from 2009 - 2019 are stellar. Just a mere extension of the 1st wave up from 2009 low gave me Softie at at least 90 dollars. So I know-ed the profit would be hugissimo becasue softie gots to take out the 1999 top which would fall at 261.8% of the extension meaning softie would for sure go to 423.6%. So $90 was high prob. in the bag. Licking my chops was I.

(5) But then Softie did me a cheesecake with cherries - I extrapolated that 1st wave and put the zero of the grid on the June 2010 low and boom the first indication that MAGIC was afoot for Fibo was when 61.8% lined up magnificently perfectly at the crash low in 2015 that had the dow Jones followers terrorized. I know-ed I was on to something. The 423.6% of this grid hits exactly at $139.

(6) I watched in awe as the waves developed, 1, 2, 3, 4, and then wehn the 5th was well underway from early 2019 I waited for the fireworks to come and dropped to daily frame and counted the internal waves. Softie's turn came in at 141.68, close enough to my calculation of $139 mentioned above.
 

fibo_trader

Senior member
2,228 44
The magnificent Softie ....................................... throw-ed Fibo a creme de la creme wave relationship .............. Taking Wave 1 up from 8/31/2015 low and extroplating to the 3rd wave gave a hit at softie's top at 61.8% meaning that the last wave was 61.8% of the waves from 1 to 3. this is a projection grid not an extension or retracement grid.



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fibo_trader

Senior member
2,228 44
I rest my case.

Thank you Mr. Softie for a wonderful ride.


Its just too much for any one man to absorb such inflows - blockages are a sure thing if not outflowed fast. Sooooo many transfers away from Fibo is the modus operandi for days ......................... sister fell off her chair when the bank called her with good news about international deposit. Fibo cannae sleep.


Fibo sees the Golden Ratio that rocks his world .......................................... :):):whistle::whistle:








Always getting banned left and right, can't help it :whistle::whistle::whistle::whistle::whistle:






 

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