Measuring trending behaviour

You can not pinpoint the exact place when the trend is over. But following the Highes and the Lowes is not a bad idea.

So lets say the trend is up and all of a sudden there are several sessions of price making lower highs and lower lows and then the trend continues. Prior to the trend continuing, how does studying the highs and lows give you any indication of the strength of a trend. Why is price doing what it is?

Highs and lows can't answer this so it becomes a game of probability. The problem with this is that the probability is being calculated off nothing but the historic prints in price. The reality is markets move according to the environment in which they exist. Take any instrument and it will have a relationship with <N> external forces (this is why indicators lag). People who think price structure is lag free are also using historical price prints. You can show me any price structure and I bet I will find you dozens like it where it fails.
 
So lets say the trend is up and all of a sudden there are several sessions of price making lower highs and lower lows and then the trend continues. Prior to the trend continuing, how does studying the highs and lows give you any indication of the strength of a trend. Why is price doing what it is?

Highs and lows can't answer this so it becomes a game of probability. The problem with this is that the probability is being calculated off nothing but the historic prints in price. The reality is markets move according to the environment in which they exist. Take any instrument and it will have a relationship with <N> external forces (this is why indicators lag). People who think price structure is lag free are also using historical price prints. You can show me any price structure and I bet I will find you dozens like it where it fails.

Look man you are looking for the secret sauce. There is no single one way to identify the trend and be 100% right. You have to accept that you will be wrong.

As for indicators even the name says that indicates not show just indicate. With price you will see the actual price and you can compare it to previous levels.

I know that i have my strategy and the way i identify trend is working well for me. I am about 65-70% right and its more than enough to give you an edge. The secret sauce is the money management anyway.

I say just stick to something that works, and scale up on it.
 
I have looked through the last 6 pages of your thread and all I can see are channels. Whatever your semi-secret strategy is it cannot determine a trend strength on price alone. All a chart or price can tell you is what's happened in the past. It can't tell you when the trend is losing steam because it can't tell you why the trend exists in the first place.

Look, this constant ego dwelling I find it very childish to be honest.

If you cannot determine trend by technicality is not others people fault.

I disagreed with your comment because I use one it every day successfully. Full stop.
 
Look, this constant ego dwelling I find it very childish to be honest.

If you cannot determine trend by technicality is not others people fault.

I disagreed with your comment because I use one it every day successfully. Full stop.
So I have a different opinion to you and you call it ego. Grow up
 
You can not pinpoint the exact place when the trend is over. But following the Highes and the Lowes is not a bad idea.

I think you can but not the exact point, a confirmation reversal is needed and it will be wise to place the order below (for short) that reversal with a protective stop above it.

I would not take a reversal trade in forex if the counter traders have not already showed their will with a major TL break.
 
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Look, this constant ego dwelling I find it very childish to be honest.

If you cannot determine trend by technicality is not others people fault.

I disagreed with your comment because I use one it every day successfully. Full stop.

You got me wrong brother. I am a technical trader and i am using custom indicators too but i am well aware of their capabilities. There are days when i get crushed because of them but overtime i have the advantage.
 
Look man you are looking for the secret sauce. There is no single one way to identify the trend and be 100% right. You have to accept that you will be wrong.

As for indicators even the name says that indicates not show just indicate. With price you will see the actual price and you can compare it to previous levels.

I know that i have my strategy and the way i identify trend is working well for me. I am about 65-70% right and its more than enough to give you an edge. The secret sauce is the money management anyway.

I say just stick to something that works, and scale up on it.

I was answering a question about lagging indicators and you have turned it into having secret sauce and describing your win rate.
 
So I have a different opinion to you and you call it ego. Grow up

I like different opinions, I just do not like a narrow mind where it merges in ego dwelling.

You have failed in technicality because technicality needs a degree of artistic flair, now what ever is not technical is rubbish for you. I am sure you had the same firm belief when you where trying to make it in technicality.

Does my post help you understand a bit about yourself?
 
You got me wrong brother. I am a technical trader and i am using custom indicators too but i am well aware of their capabilities. There are days when i get crushed because of them but overtime i have the advantage.

No problem mate, I am just giving my view. I appreciated your post, I though it was wise.
 
I was answering a question about lagging indicators and you have turned it into having secret sauce and describing your win rate.

:))) How talks about the EGO ? just please walk me thru how did you came to this conclusion ?
 
hey man if you are into very specific technicalities let me know, i like to improve by sharing

easy.

Price are either in trend, range or channels.

Channels are hybrid and can be narrow or wide, fast or slow as with trend and range.

Those phases alternate between each other all the time and can be visually determined by trend lines and channel lines .

Once a trader understand this constant repetition of Price Action he can then draft a method based on his personality and availability taken in consideration MM and psychology.

For reason of objectivity he can also add other indicators to his system if he wishes, whatever makes sense to himself.

In forex a pair is based on two instruments and for this reason more difficult to trade, that is why relative strength is important because if in a pair there are two instruments balancing each other in strength or in weakness, technicality will have a less impact due to the lack of momentum.

So with technicality you can weight where strength and weakness are shifting towards in terms of relative strenght and with technicality you can also pin point your entries and exit.
 
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I like different opinions, I just do not like narrow mindless where it merges in ego dwelling.

You have failed in technicality because technicality needs a degree of artistic flair, now what ever is not technical is rubbish for you. I am sure you had the same firm belief when you where trying to make in technicality.

Does my post help you understand a bit about yourself?

I did technical for a decade - I'm not a one trick pony. I know it works so you don't need to argue a point of it working and call any view other than your own narrow mindedness (contradicting your first statement where you say you like different opinions). What's interesting about your approach to me is that you call me being narrow minded when technically, I have been able to make money trading both ways. I assume you have never traded without technicals, thus the scope of your knowledge is smaller than my scope. The only person who is narrow minded as far as I can tell is you.

Nothing new to learn. You're just another trader who thinks he needs to defend himself.
 
I did technical for a decade - I'm not a one trick pony. I know it works so you don't need to argue a point of it working and call any view other than your own narrow mindedness (contradicting your first statement where you say you like different opinions). What's interesting about your approach to me is that you call me being narrow minded when technically, I have been able to make money trading both ways. I assume you have never traded without technicals, thus the scope of your knowledge is smaller than my scope. The only person who is narrow minded as far as I can tell is you.

Nothing new to learn. You're just another trader who thinks he needs to defend himself.

I do not need to defend myself, I have nothing to defend.

I am constantly sharing my perception on this forum without imposing my absolute truth as I am doing right now with Future Oil in this right moment, I am having a decent exchange with him just for the sake of sharing, there is not childish ego involved and you are the only one making this conversation very poor with Future Oil and myself.

Now if you do not mind, move on...
 
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I like to think that the end of a trend is when n where mi limits stop getting filled. I like to focus more on the the trend that will be more than the trend that is. Tint 'ard is it.
 
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I do not need to defend myself, I have nothing to defend.

I am constantly sharing my perception on this forum without imposing my absolute truth as I am doing right now with Future Oil in this right moment, I am having a decent exchange with him just for the sake of sharing, there is not childish ego involved and you are the only one making this conversation very poor with Future Oil and myself.

Now if you do not mind, move on...

Lol, keep banging that ego stick of yours. While you are at it look in the mirror. If you can't have an adult conversation about something maybe you should shut your mouth next time instead of this childish behaviour.
 
There is but you won't find it in charts.

Hi Forker,

I am more interested to hear your thoughts. If I can not find it in chart then where should I find it? Are you suggesting volume related market sentiment, any kind of liquidity data? Fundamental area?

I saw your profile suggesting momentum. I always liked it. :)

Regards
S.
 
Hi Forker,

I am more interested to hear your thoughts. If I can not find it in chart then where should I find it? Are you suggesting volume related market sentiment, any kind of liquidity data? Fundamental area?

I saw your profile suggesting momentum. I always liked it. :)

Regards
S.

Hello sun, where have you been? Not off down a cul-de-sac with mofo I hope !

Forker has a new thread all about fundamentals.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex/220432-trading-economics.html
 
Hi Forker,

I am more interested to hear your thoughts. If I can not find it in chart then where should I find it? Are you suggesting volume related market sentiment, any kind of liquidity data? Fundamental area?

I saw your profile suggesting momentum. I always liked it. :)

Regards
S.

hi Sun

Trading technically without any other input requires compensation for the limitations that comes with technical analysis. So what are the limitations? well for starters you have no way of knowing when price changes direction if that change is the start of a new trend. All technical studies of trends requires historical prints in price to measure highs, lows, and closes. As you know you don't need to get in from the start to make money, however the point i am trying to convey here is that the missing information that you can't obtain technically is important to how you approach the trend until its completion.

So being without context when a trend starts you have to wait until price prints enough history to determine technically that a trend may have started. So lets say you have enough technical information to determine a trade and you enter a trade. Now that you in a trade how do you stay in and know when it's time to get out? There are all sorts of technical approaches here and all of them will have merit however all of them lack the most critical piece of information and that is why the trend exists in the first place.

There are 2 ways to trade a trend. The first is to get in and stay in until circumstances change. The second is to get in and take profits multiple times to maximize the opportunity to get in at a better price for another leg. Both approaches work with the second having a better profit profile along with more complexity. The main issue technical studies of trends has is to determine when the trend has priced in the underlying reason for its move. How can you measure this technically? The answer is you can only apply probability based on historical price points. While this does work it is ultimately the compensation you have to pay for lack of a better term. The outcome will nearly always be early or late exit from a trend. This is a crucial point to keep in mind because trends have the ability to make the biggest impact to your account growth.

Now i know there are going to be dozens of traders that are of the belief that its not important and that their technical strategy maximizes opportunity. Don't listen to them or me for that matter but ask yourself this when thinking about it. How can you maximize opportunity when you get in late and the only means of deriving an exit is through historical price. Consider that the historical price reference points at their time of formation were under difference circumstances. Now there is always going to be reactionary behavior at these areas by technical traders. The thing to keep in mind here is that its nothing more than a reaction to previous price levels after which the market will continue pricing in the underlying reason for the trend.

So what are your options to minimize the compensation and lagging nature of technical analysis. For starters you should allow for understanding of the reasons behind the trend. This information gives you the ability to better estimate when you should think about getting out. So for example if the underlying trend is busy pricing in a rate hike then go back measure the % change in price when this last happened and average that out. Lets assume 5% change in price as a hypothetical example. So now instead of trying to compensate through technical strategies you have a good idea to expect where price is headed.

The other important aspect to this is to keep an eye on the data because it is not enough to just have a target area because the circumstance can change. Markets get things wrong often enough to pay attention to this. So perhaps inflation data or jobs data is released that softens expectations of a rate hike. I mention these because you trade currencies so it applies to the market you trade. If you traded commodities then this is important but there are additional factors that you need to consider.

In summary, to better judge the scope of price change and the maintenance of that change you need to have an eye on the drivers of price. You can of course trade successfully without it but you are limiting your potential in the market.

A kind note to technical traders who disagree with me. Unless you have experience trading fundamentally and technically then you cannot possibly have an educated opinion on the subject - only a biased assumption. I know technical works i have done it so keep your pants on i am NOT saying your way is rubbish. If you can't have an open mind to this discussion then its best you just keep your opinions to yourself. I have been around long enough and have experience in both areas to have some insight into whats being discussed here. I am happy to have an adult discussion about this but i am not interested in talking to people who assume any opinion that it different to their own is somehow ego or being narrow minded.
 
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