Markets response to news

[Trojen]

US releases crappy housing news (worse than expected) AND.......the market goes up in first 10mins after release......hmmmmmm

 

[JTrader]

Which market?

GBPUSD
EURUSD?

If so, a worse than forecasr release for the US economy means that u need more USD to buy EUR or GBP - thus GBPUSD & EURUSD go up in price :smart: = USD going down in value.

 

[Trader333]

The USD was expected to go down on this news but as with all things in trading you can never know for certain what the market will do.


Paul

 

[Trojen]

sorry chaps.......I refer to the Dow and other indices.

But yes.....know what you mean......I only use news events to expect when the markets will move. The direction seems inexplicable.....just know that market could move then.

Sometimes just too ass-tounding fer words

 

[FXSCALPER2]

The prior month was revised from 0.6% to 3.7%! WTF! How unrelable are these figures?

Anyway, that is the reason indices were up and the USD didn't go down.

 

[arabianights]

You need to know what's already priced in to the market before you can predict how it will react. That usually isn't the same thing as the "consensus prediction" by "experts".

 

[JTrader]

You need to know what's already priced in to the market before you can predict how it will react. That usually isn't the same thing as the "consensus prediction" by "experts".

And how does one do this?

Cheers.

 

[arabianights]

And how does one do this?

Cheers.

With great difficulty

 

[FXSCALPER2]

Plus timing is tricky. Equities did of course have a sh*tty day yesterday in the end. Dollar was still strangely subdued however. That said, we are now seeing very good 2-way interest in usd/jpy (where one would have thought instinctively the left hand side was by far the more vulnerable) which is serving to keep it more rangebound than you would perhaps otherwise expect.

If you're an options trader, maybe buying 1 week vol is the play. If you're directional only, I personally would look to maybe sell usdjpy here (maybe around 109.50 ish) with a tight-ish stop meself (109.80/85 area?).

Perhaps even eurjpy is a good play, but don't like it at these levels r/r wise.

OK - lets all watch usdjpy go UP in a straight line now I've said that

GJ

The rangeboundness has been going on for while now. 109.75 has been the roof. This has certainly not started after the news yesterday.

 

[Crap Buddist]

doesnt the market respond to the money flow ? so the news can be whatever . The trader is better off looking at the flow rather than worrying hmmm that was good news or the market shoulda woulda coulda.. ?

like the silver analyst and the trader story...

 

[Crap Buddist]

Markets respond to money

thats what I mean. hence why theres no point trying to rationalise was that good news or bad news ehh makes sense..... maybe its more difficult a position to be in if one has to explain to someone why, but markets and money.

 

[Crap Buddist]

And finally from him...

You Snews you looze .

:clap:

 

[FXSCALPER2]

Trading the news works most of the time in FX if you know what to look for.

 

[DaxDestroyer]

Markets react only to UNEXPECTED news. If there is a scheduled news report, the market reacts not to the news, but to the expectations of the traders. This means as well as the markets takes often for between 5 and 10 mins the WRONG side to fake out many traders. The real move needs often time to develop as the REAL MONEY first evaluates the news and then calls in the orders.

 

[Crap Buddist]

yeah agree on news trading,it works , but what does it works mean ? its just that whatever the news the market will respond to money flow ? or try to manipulate prices to guide then abuse the money flow ? is that too cynical ? or just plain wrong ? I dont know, but it must be terrible having to need to work out is the news bullish or bearish.. I guess also I'm focusing shorter term as opposed longer drive to fundamentals 12 months down the road.

Well maybe if we are trading intra session on news then I'd expect the market to take it all ways for that remainder of session. be open to it... expecting to be one or the other intra basis is a bit fixed I think.