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EURUSD faced a test below 1.11 heading towards Wednesday’s publication of Minutes from Federal Open Market Committee Meeting but since the report was understood by traders as dovish, volumes picked up and Euro started to recover. Our expectation for the Euro-Dollar remains unchanged and as the move below 1.11 didn’t really attract sellers, we continue to see Euro-Dollar being traded at 1.15 – 1.16 rate in the coming weeks providing the market doesn’t break the key support at 1.10 – 1.1020.
The RSI,14 on H4 chart bounces off of the oversold area and daily RSI shows a bounce from the mid-point signaling a good support and plenty room for Euro-Dollar to move up.
Heads of a few central banks are due to speak today with ECB’s Mario Draghi scheduled for 9:30 EST.
For this reason we expect high liquidity during and after the speech.
Pound-Dollar goes in-line with our expectations this week and remains in the raising channel.
The nine members of Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep interest rate unchanged. Despite lower than expected inflation numbers in the UK, the retail sales data soared. This could’ve been expected as lower inflation is better for an average consumer, as this simply lets them buy more.
Today, Bank of England’s governor Carney is due to speak, at the same time as Mario Draghi from ECB at 9.30 EST.
Technically speaking, Pound-Dollar is expected to raise towards 1.60 with 1.50-55 remaining a solid support.
Oil too, in line with our expectations reached 58.50 and found a good support at this price level. Oil buyers who missed opportunity to buy at 58.50 could receive another chance at around 59.50 where the market is likely to move before another bull run is expected.
Traders should also be aware and ready for FED’s Yellen speech at 1 in the afternoon EST time.
With also Bank of Japan’s governor Kuroda speech scheduled for today (9:30 AM EST time), today looks to be a very busy day for traders. With high volatility expected, we recommend using Stop Orders on all open orders or minimize the exposure to avoid disappointment.
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The USD Dollar Index (DXY) rises for the third consecutive day on Tuesday and Dollar bulls will be looking at a close above 97 points to regain faith in Dollar --- and continue with the rally.
The dollar climbed to a fresh 8-year high versus Yen at 122.90 during today’s EU session.
Bank of Japan and Government are committed to maintaining the current monetary policies, which are asset market friendly and bearish on the currency. Recent rallies against the Dollar were not noticed on Dollar-Yen and thus break above 122 could’ve been expected.
In order to extend gains, traders will be looking to close this week above 122 where the intra-day support is located. The Daily RSI falls into overbought area and short retracements are expected.
Euro buyers cut their exposure and take heavy positions off the market below 1.11 and since then a fast paced bearish rally continued till 1.09 hit during today’s EU session.
Rate 1.09 falls on 61.8% fibo retracement on the wave from 1.055 and 1.1450 where a pull up is expected. Remaining Euro bulls should be protecting this level as a break below 1.09 may force the market to test 1.0750 and eventually 1.0550. For any move up to take place, daily close above 1.10 is a must. Then too, 1.09 should attract both bull and bear traders where more orders and volumes will decide where the market goes from there.
Pound buyers may be left slightly disappointed after the break below 1.55 as today’s EU session saw GBPUSD traded below 1.54.
Pound is likely to be traded at 1.5350, a 61.8% retracement on the wave from 1.51 and 1.58. 1.5350 should provide more direction and despite the current Dollar rally and break from the upper channel, the Pound is still likely to continue towards 1.60 and current levels may be seen as a good opportunity to join. A break below 1.5350 may see a fast pace break towards 1.5250
There are multiple key events in the Economic Calendar for today and later this week. Traders are advised to be aware of them before making trading decisions. We also recommend using Stop Losses on each and every trade.
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Heading towards Tuesday’s US session, Euro-Dollar climbed above 1.10 on better than expected Inflation data for the Eurozone.
With Greece apparently reaching an agreement among Troika, current price should attract more Euro buyers. It is important however that EURUSD ends today’s US session above 1.10.
First target for buyers will be price around 1.11 from where a short retracement can be expected.
Second target for buyers will be price around 1.12 level and break above should provide a confirmation that the market is ready to continue going up.
On the other hand, a close below 1.10 will attract strong selling interest.
Traders will be looking for clues during ECB’s Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference scheduled for Wednesday at 8:30 am Eastern Time.
There’s little change in the direction on Dollar-Yen after the fast paced break and close above 122.
Having been in an 8 day consecutive move up, Dollar-Yen traders can expect a short correction as the 14 period RSI is well in the overbought area.
It seems that for the price to break and stay above 125 would need to test 122 first. Having said that, a break and close above 125 on the daily chart would indicate possible sharp movements towards 127.
With last week being anti-Sterling, Pound-Dollar is currently testing a break above the declining price action channel. Pound-Dollar traders will be looking at a daily close -- as close below 1.5250 will attract sellers till 1.5150. The 14 period RSI on Four Hour charts shows divergence and thus it shouldn’t take much for Pound-Dollar to raise again. Daily close above 1.5250 will indicate a possible sharp movements towards 1.55 amid this week’s economic data.
There are multiple events in this week’s economic calendar that will surely provide a lot of liquidity to the currency market and thus we advise our clients to get familiar with them before making trading decisions.
We also advise our clients to use Stop Loss orders each time you place a trade to minimize the risk and avoid any disappointments.
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Current setups across major currency pairs signal a continuation of an anti-Dollar trade.
The Euro, Pound and Canadian Dollar show good trading opportunities.
Let’s start with Pound-Dollar
Since last week’s drop to 1.52 after the NFP release, and in line with our expectations and analysis from last Friday, the market attracted a significant number of buyers. Pound finally breaks away from the declining channel and new highs can be expected.
With UK’s GDP Estimate reading and Bank of England’s governor speech later today, it is important that Pound Dollar breaks and holds above 1.55. Such scenario in the next several hours of trade should attract more buyers and rally can continue with next targets around 1.5580 to eventually test May’s highs at 1.58.
On the other side a break below 1.54 on possible dovish outlook by the Bank of England could see Pound-Dollar declining to 1.52 where it all started last week.
Let’s take a quick at Euro-Dollar
Euro too, in line with our expectations found enough at 1.11 to attract buyers and current setup signals possible moves towards 1.16 rate in near future. Ideally, buyers will be hoping for a close above 1.1380 while supporting 1.1080 as break below should see a fast paced move towards 1.10.
Last but not least, the Loonie, Dollar-Canadian Dollar
The loonie remains heavily supported by higher oil prices and the decline towards 1.2250 was imminent and in line with our expectations during yesterday’s live webinar session. Short retracement can be expected from 1.2250 to about 1.2360-80 area before another bear run is expected. However, a daily close below 1.2250 this week, will most likely attract another bear run much sooner and till 1.20.
That’s all for today, don’t forget to check out the Economic calendar and use of stop loss orders.
Looking at this week’s economic calendar schedule, the main focus of currency markets will be on the US dollar as FED is due to release its monetary policy statement and announce interest rate decision on Wednesday.
While the main focus will be on FED this week, there are some important data points that will drive interest in the British Pound with Tuesday’s Inflation Data release, Wednesday’s Vote on interest rates and Unemployment figure as well as Thursday’s Retail sales data signals a volatile week for Pound lies ahead.
Technical view on Pound Dollar.
The Pound Dollar traded strongly last Friday but this week open trims gains on the cable as traders will be offloading their long positions before the huge impact news.
Our view on the Cable remains bullish but better opportunities to long should come at around 1.5430 rate. Cable traders will be looking for a daily close above last week’s high at just under 1.56 while looking to protect 1.5430 – 1.54 as daily close below will signals that sellers are in the driving seat to push the Pound lower versus the Dollar targeting low 1.52 rates.
Euro Dollar traders are looking for more direction as current level is around an average exchange rate taking last week’s trading rates into consideration. In a couple of hours ECB’s president Mario Draghi is due to testify on monetary policy before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee and this event should bring some volatility to Euro Dollar.
Current technical setup suggests a drop to 1.11 rate, which could see another good buying opportunity. As long as Euro Dollar trades within the raising channel, any bigger drops will be seen as good buying opportunity, but break and close below 1.10 will upset buyers who will then be looking to off load their long trades from 1.0850. It seems that for Euro Dollar to break above 1.14, a dovish statement and no change in interest rates from FED will be enough.
Last but not least let’s take a look at US Dollar versus the Canadian Dollar
The loonie remains in a retracement since the drop last week but current 2350 or possibly even 2380 area may be seen as a good opportunity to short again and in line with our expectations from last week.
Next target for sellers will be 1.21 where another 50-70 point retracement can be expected. On the other side, a break above 1.24 could signal a resistance test of the declining trendline at around 1.2520.
We advise our clients to be on top of the economic calendar events and use stop loss on each order.
For the second day running there’s a visible ongoing retracement from recent highs on the Euro and British Pound versus the US Dollar and both European currencies are set to test important support levels before a potential mid-week reversal with US GDP reading, Eurogroup on Greece meeting and Bank of England’s Governor speech all to be out this week.
Euro failed to stay above 1.14 for the second time in recent days and the break below 1.13 during today’s early Asian trade fueled the sell-off in the EU session and the pair is traded some 250 pips below highs from less 24 hours ago. With such fast paced downward move, EuroDollar is likely to drop towards 1050 – 1080 rate and test the support trendline of the bullish channel. It seems that traders will be looking for opportunities to buy into the rising channel again but most certainly be watching 1.10 for any signals that may lead to break below that psychological level. Despite the recent sell-off, our view on Euro Dollar hasn’t changed and remain bullish with dips to provide opportunities to long. However, traders on the Euro Dollar are advised to follow any developments on the Eurogroup negotiations with Greece as any updates in this matter will drive the market.
As expected last week, the Pound was due a retracement and today’s drop will most likely continue throughout today’s and tomorrow’s session as the retracement aims at 5650 area.
Pound Dollar is traded within a tight descending channel and is due to continue downward move till that 38.2% retracement so around 5650, of the move from 1.52 to approximately 1.5920. With US GDP report scheduled for tomorrow and Bank of England’s Governor Carney speech on Friday, there will again be interest in the British Currency, which is likely to continue strengthening versus most currencies after short retracements. Our view on Pound Dollar remains bullish with next good opportunities to buy should come around 5650.
We would like to remind traders to check the economic calendar, don’t forget about checking developments on Greece and use Stop Loss.
Monday’s opening gap on the rising channel’s support on EURO/DOLLAR proved to be a great opportunity to buy -- with the pair currently finding a support at 1.1140 and that is a 38.2% retracement of Monday’s wave from 1.0950 to 1.1250. The upward move comes despite no major positive developments in Greece’s financial situation and thus traders will still be very cautious during this week’s trade.
The current intraday support at 1.1140 level appears to have a great interest as volumes around this level increase and can prove to be a good floor for more long positions with next target is set around 1.1350. As it is still unclear what will happen with Greece during this week, traders are advised to monitor the situation on a regular basis. A break and a daily close below 1.1140 will attract intraday sellers to target around 1.1060 – testing the rising channel’s support yet again.
Despite all the troubles with Greece, our view on Euro Dollar remains bullish as investors seem to no longer be that scared of the prospect of a Greek Euro exit. However, up until this weekend’s referendum in Greece we expect sharp movements and potentially another gap opening Monday, therefore traders should take all measures to protect their interest on Euro Dollar.
Following our last week’s analysis on Pound, the drop to 1.5650/60 area proved to be a good opportunity to buy and with today’s better GDP report for the UK, a drop below 1.5650 seems unlikely in a current technical setup. Buyers aim to take Pound-Dollar back towards 1.60 but and daily close below 5650 may attract intraday sellers to target the rising channel’s support at around 1.5580.
Our view on Pound-Dollar remains bullish with 1.60 as the initial target.
Canadian GDP report came in negative at -0.1%. USDCAD is currently testing the resistance of the bearish channel at 1.24 and sellers will be looking to close the day below 1.24 and if the oil can climb back above $60 per barrel, we can expect USDCAD to move downwards back in low 1.20s. Daily close above 1.24 and further drop in Oil prices may see USDCAD climbing back towards 1.28.
In the economic calendar you can find information about the upcoming data releases and we advise our clients to get familiar with the schedule. At the same time we’d like to remind our traders that the upcoming NFP data release and promotion is due on Thursday, second of July as oppose to Friday.
Thank you for reading and we wish you successful trading.
Greece has been given a time till this Sunday to come up with a new plan for austerity measures and economic reforms
Current global negative risk sentiment is increased by continued drop in Chinese stocks where total number of companies suspended is 1429 out of the 2776 stocks listed in either Shanghai or Shanzhen.
In US, minutes from June’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released this afternoon, with investors awaiting direction from the US monetary policy.
EUR/USD likely to 1.0850 exchange, which last seen at the end of May, provided a good support. On the other side a break above 1.1120 will take Euro-Dollar back in the long term bullish price channel.
USDCAD finds nothing to resist its weakening versus the US Dollar as the price of oil drops.
Opportunity to buy Oil while the price is cheap as indicated by the strong bullish pinbar on daily chart, which actually occurs at the 61.8% retracement from this year’s low to this year’s high.
USDJPY breaks through an important support at 122 Yen per 1 US Dollar and is likely to continue down towards lows of 118.
Traders should remain cautious when taking trades on Euro-Dollar till next week as the Euro-leaders gave Greece the final deadline for IN or OUT of the Euro-zone, a decision which needs to be made this Sunday.
We advise our clients to prepare for highly volatile trading sessions till at least end of this week, check the economic calendar for scheduled events and use Stop Loss orders.
Greece’s latest proposal to the bailout creditors has been welcomed.
There’s little to be expected from Fed’s chair Yellen speech this afternoon on the US economic outlook with rate hike this year appears to be simply fading away.
Euro-Dollar broke through 1.1120 resistance and is back in the rising channel.
Euro-Dollar is likely to continue towards 1.1450 next week with intraday support at 1.10.
Commodity market and currencies continue to suffer from latest fear in China with Australian Dollar dipping below 0.74 and Gold dipping below $1150 near recent lows.
USDCAD aims at 1.2820 but break below 1.2680 may see an accelerated selloff till 1.2550
We advise our clients to reassess exposures on the EURO market before the market close, get familiar with the economic calendar for next week and use Stop Loss on each order.
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* There’s a progress in Greece towards reaching aGreekment to keep Greece in the Euro Zone
* BoE’s governor Mark Carney said during Bank of England’s’ inflation report hearings that the hike in interest rate is moving closer
* GBPUSD More longs can be expected providing we see a couple hourly candles closing above 1.56
* EURUSD is likely to test 1.1150 area on the up side. Should bears take EURUSD below 1.0950 the next intraday support is around 1.0850.
* If the oil price can move up from current level then a new bearish move on USDCAD can be expected.
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- Chinese Manufacturing data for July fell to a 15 month low
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts Interest Rate
- Gold is likely to close around $1080
- GBP/USD important support at lows of 1.54
- EUR/USD Supported at 1.0920 targets 1.1050
- Major Data release next week with FED's Interest Rate and Monetary Policy Statement
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In the UK, economic growth accelerated in the second quarter as the preliminary release of GDP shows a decent growth rate of 0.7% quarter to quarter.
GBP/USD has a good potential to break above 1.5675 targeting 1.5800.
Gold’s technical setup suggests a break above $1105 targeting $1130
USDCAD remains within the bullish price channel and new higher lows are printed we can expect the USDCAD to climb towards 1.31
There are numerous rumors that the FED will hike rates this year and investors around the world will be paying a close attention to tomorrow’s meeting. For that reason, we would like to advise traders to limit exposure on the market to avoid potential spikes during the high volatility period.
- Bank of England keeps Bank Rate at 0.5%
- No rate hike this year (our view)
- GBP/USD tumbles down but stops at support in the bullish price channel 1.5570
- EUR/USD downward pressure on 1.07
- Gold awaits a breakout from technical triangle pattern
- AUD/USD supported in range 0.7330 - 0.7420 major support 0.7250
- NFP and Unemployment Rate for July is due tomorrow
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- UK's Annual Consumer Price Index increased by 0.1%
- UK's Core Inflation measure accelerated to 1.2%
- GBP/USD tests an important resistance at 1.57
- EUR/USD remains supported at 1.1050 but pay attention to any break below
- GOLD supported above $1112 aims at $1130
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