Mark Douglas Interview

15 min tlb

Senior member
yes but theres always direct access.If you win at a casino they will put you in a hotel for the night and hope you come back the next day. They know you cant win over time,SB have a small % that win. Fixed odds bookies wont let you win and will even try and stop you betting if they consider your staking and pattern irregular.

Wouldnt it have been nice to be a card counter in the early 60s in the uk. I guess it was safer than vegas.I wonder how many counters there were before thorps book came out.Even in the 70s and early 80s it was still possible to exploit the counting edge.I supposed a few have ways that they mechanically can exploit the sb firms nowadays but probably very few.

Do you really think that a spread betting company will stop you from betting variable sizes ?I have never been refused my $100 per pip after a string of losses on smaller sizes.If I bet $1,000 a pip , my spreadbetter goes into the fx market and covers himself.

One can use several different spreadbetting companies and several family accounts.:clap:
 

Lord Flasheart

Legendary member
Do you really think that a spread betting company will stop you from betting variable sizes ?I have never been refused my $100 per pip after a string of losses on smaller sizes.If I bet $1,000 a pip , my spreadbetter goes into the fx market and covers himself.

One can use several different spreadbetting companies and several family accounts.:clap:

you really are a fool,did i say that sb firms stop you betting for varying stake,read posts properly before you respond in future and as for you betting in $1000 pp,weve been over this and you really showed yourself up.Please dont turn this thread on me and grow up before you are barred
 

Lord Flasheart

Legendary member
Yes you're right. They are not the same thing. But it is still a reasonable comparison.

Thorp was able to prove it mathematically, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if there were plenty of 'naturals' who had their own system, just like there were those who figured out the Black Scholes option pricing idea before it was published.

The edge is actually quite small in casinos. I think from 0.1-1% The edge if you're card counting probably not much more than 1%. Still would have taken capital, skill and a lot of discipline.

The edge on the one deck game in the 60s was huge.You could even be 100% sure of the next card towards the end of a deck. The edge at the moment is close to what you say and less if you play basic strategy. BTW I counted for 6 months a long while ago,just before they brought out the multi shuffler which has basically killed any chance of counting in the uk.
 

Lord Flasheart

Legendary member
Just to add out of interest for those that want to know.Card counting is really easy and can be learnt in one afternoon,you do not need to be rain man. It is a simple +1/-1 count for each card,so you just have to follow the dealer as he deals.When the score hits a certain level,you know you have a positive outcome and are above 50%
 

Triggerfish

Active member
Lee Shepherd
Assumptions are not the way forward.....maybe you are not ready.

QUOTE: "So....... Do you want to trade".....What is more important?, reacting by emotions like everyone else and jump into the markets.....or.....the alternative?.....thats another question for you!

QUOTE: "I've fully understood the analogy's".....My original post is NOT an analogy so therefore you have not understood the meaning.....it is in fact a very serious and deep question which is unfinished.....maybe I should come back 3 years time again!
 

Lee Shepherd

Senior member
Lee Shepherd
Assumptions are not the way forward.....maybe you are not ready.

QUOTE: "So....... Do you want to trade".....What is more important?, reacting by emotions like everyone else and jump into the markets.....or.....the alternative?.....thats another question for you!

QUOTE: "I've fully understood the analogy's".....My original post is NOT an analogy so therefore you have not understood the meaning.....it is in fact a very serious and deep question which is unfinished.....maybe I should come back 3 years time again!

Hi Triggerfish,

Firstly allow me to apologise if you have taken any offence by my recent posts to you, as I said in the posts they were not intended that way.

I am by no means a professional in this business but if you ask me if I make profit on a regular basis and have done for many, many years then the answer is yes.

I feel that I may have alienated myself towards you so I will no longer offer my help, if I could have been a help at all to which personally.....I don't think I could have been.

So I wish you the best of luck.

If you are in any doubt to which I think you may be regarding my trading then please feel free to nose at my recent 30 day trading history below.

For ease of working out it goes as follows:

19 Trades
13 Winners = £10,202 / 13 trades = average of £784
6 Losers = £3,764 / 6 trades = average of £627

This includes:
12 Shorts
7 Longs

Win rate is 2.16 to 1
Monetary rate is 2.71 to 1

Biggest loss is £894
Biggest gain is £2,545

Profit/winnings over 30 days is £6,438. Currently only 2k but usually equates to 80% of winnings/profits. I live a humble but good life.

Note: I have edited a lot out of the statement as I do not wish to disclose my trades past or present to you for which can include (IMO) critical levels and entries/exits that are still in play. Many (good traders) on here know roughly what I've been trading of late, some have very good insight....However, You will not be one of them.

Good luck to you and enjoy what you can get.

Lee Shepherd
 

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C

cablemonster

Hi Triggerfish,

Firstly allow me to apologise if you have taken any offence by my recent posts to you, as I said in the posts they were not intended that way.

I am by no means a professional in this business but if you ask me if I make profit on a regular basis and have done for many, many years then the answer is yes.

I feel that I may have alienated myself towards you so I will no longer offer my help, if I could have been a help at all to which personally.....I don't think I could have been.

So I wish you the best of luck.

If you are in any doubt to which I think you may be regarding my trading then please feel free to nose at my recent 30 day trading history below.

For ease of working out it goes as follows:

19 Trades
13 Winners = £10,202 / 13 trades = average of £784
6 Losers = £3,764 / 6 trades = average of £627

This includes:
12 Shorts
7 Longs

Win rate is 2.16 to 1
Monetary rate is 2.71 to 1

Biggest loss is £894
Biggest gain is £2,545

Profit/winnings over 30 days is £6,438. Currently only 2k but usually equates to 80% of winnings/profits. I live a humble but good life.

Note: I have edited a lot out of the statement as I do not wish to disclose my trades past or present to you for which can include (IMO) critical levels and entries/exits that are still in play. Many (good traders) on here know roughly what I've been trading of late, some have very good insight....However, You will not be one of them.

Good luck to you and enjoy what you can get.

Lee Shepherd

good effort. looks like you are managing the losers well which for me is half the battle.
 

Lee Shepherd

Senior member
good effort. looks like you are managing the losers well which for me is half the battle.

Hi Cablemonster,

The losses is where its all at. Taking profit is easy, cutting losses is not so. As long as the principles add up then one will be on the right side of trading. BTW, being on the right side does not necessarily mean they are making money but at least they know where they are not.

This is where trading systems come in handy....find one that constantly loses, flip it on its head and you've got a winnner. Its that simple. But why do most people fail.....because they don't stick to the plan and change mentality from one trade to the next. Consistency is in the eye of the beholder, not the markets

I done a trading diary on here in 2008 which detailed (very detailed) all my trades including screenshots. They were also called out live in a trading room (private but still available on here). If it's any help to you there is a section that details specifically about the losses. The diary was only meant initially for a few months but due to having a good run with minimal drawdowns I extended this for a further few months to show how I handled the losses.

After having a good run I knew it was only a matter of time before I got caught out, this is why it ran longer than initially planned for as this is where people can learn most from. We learn mostly from our downfalls.

Like I say, if it's any help to you or anyone else you'll find it by typing into google 'Lee Shepherd trading'.

Have a good weekend.

Lee
 

the hare

Senior member
This is where trading systems come in handy....find one that constantly loses, flip it on its head and you've got a winnner. Its that simple.

Lee

That statement sends up a very large red flag for me.


The majority of trading systems are break even. Transaction costs and broker shinnangins result in losses. The rate at which the losses destroy the account are usually a function of leverage used, and luck

Flipping a break even system results in a break even system. The transaction costs remain.

With the obvious exception of eroding the account due to transaction costs finding a system with a genuine negative edge is as difficult a task as finding a system with a positive edge.
 

Lee Shepherd

Senior member
That statement sends up a very large red flag for me.


The majority of trading systems are break even. Transaction costs and broker shinnangins result in losses. The rate at which the losses destroy the account are usually a function of leverage used, and luck

Flipping a break even system results in a break even system. The transaction costs remain.

With the obvious exception of eroding the account due to transaction costs finding a system with a genuine negative edge is as difficult a task as finding a system with a positive edge.

Hi the hare,

You are absolutely right in what you say. I was getting at a negative system not a breakeven one. Both are hard to find because if you have found one then you automatically have the other.

I try and be as explanitive as I can be with my posts but to be honest I think they are already too long for most to even bother to read so I try and keep them as short as possible but of course this in itself poses problems as they are not explained to the fullest. I can't get everything down in just one or even a few posts.

There are systems out there and many that work periodically and those that have been working for many years, even as far as over a decade. The real part of any system and holy grail is oneself.

Good to have pointed it out though.

Lee
 
L

Liquid validity

Agree with Lee that generally, focusing on losses is better than placing more
emphasis on winners.

The best improvements I found are from limiting losses or even not taking a trade.
Whenever I've focused on maximizing gains, the opposite usually happens, sweet irony.

Also agree with the Hare's points about most systematic approaches being
break even, what can cause the confusion is when an edge is developed to target
specific and more importantly current market conditions.
Usually due to backtests of low sample size - either not enough data or trade duration too long.
Although backtesting itself can be highly misleading, but thats a different story.
Cut a long story short, completely agree with Eckhardt & 12 degrees of freedom...
William Eckhardt: The man who launched 1,000 systems

I agree a negative edge is just as elusive as a positive edge.
Flipping can sometimes work, often it won't, particularly if the consistent
negative edge is simply due to crossing the spread too often.
Funnily enough, what I am currently doing started in exactly that way,
a negative edge, so I wasn't expecting much from flipping it.

BTW lee, good post, I read anything that is interesting and has obviously had
some thought put into it.
 

Lee Shepherd

Senior member
@ Liquid Validity and the hare,

Great conversation.

Just to extend a little on what you've both touched on is the spread/commissions.

These can be the big killers and hidden/ignored at best.

So many times I will see people trying to trade for 10pts and paying a 1pt spread. This means that you have to acquire 10% just to break even.....worse still that's assuming that every trade wins. As every trade does not throws this figure even higher.

I get upset if my comms run higher than 2% on average. I generally strive to keep win/loss and monetary ratios above 2:1RR

I don't think personally that a lot of thought goes in to this concept and the spreadbetting companies and even as far as brokers naturally exploit this. In other words its set up and design is so hard that most will fail by its very intended nature. The house wins everytime.

Lee
 
L

Liquid validity

@ Liquid Validity and the hare,

Great conversation.

Just to extend a little on what you've both touched on is the spread/commissions.

These can be the big killers and hidden/ignored at best.

So many times I will see people trying to trade for 10pts and paying a 1pt spread. This means that you have to acquire 10% just to break even.....worse still that's assuming that every trade wins. As every trade does not throws this figure even higher.

I get upset if my comms run higher than 2% on average. I generally strive to keep win/loss and monetary ratios above 2:1RR

I don't think personally that a lot of thought goes in to this concept and the spreadbetting companies and even as far as brokers naturally exploit this. In other words its set up and design is so hard that most will fail by its very intended nature. The house wins everytime.

Lee

Completely agree, paying or earning the spread makes a huge difference
with short trade duration / average target.
Even when someone is capable of overcoming the hurdle of paying the spread in
such circumstances, I've never been able to understand the point of losing so
much to spread when it could be a substantial boost.

As most won't overcome that hurdle, it usually turns out to be churning, which
may even give the impression of profit for a certain time, but can also easily
lead to a prolonged and inexplicable drawdown as well.
If you ignore spread, its much easier to come up with something profitable...

Market makers are often described as the ultimate scalper.
Their business is centered around earning the spread,
yet so many do the exact opposite and pay it...

With my own tests and research, costs are by far the biggest hurdle.
The effect of earning spread or rebates is a game changer unless you are
a swing trader or longer.

In fact that is my next area to concentrate on, problem is,
automating a procedure for missed limit fills and the knock on effects is not easy,
at least for me anyway.
Unfilled orders can do more harm to bottom line than average slippage / costs on
market orders, at least with the frequency I trade at (0-2 per day).
Then again my typical exit times aren't particularly prone to much in the way of
slippage anyway, currently I'm more likely to get slipped on entry.
 
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