Mark Douglas Interview

Triggerfish

Active member
Interesting video.....but "HOW" can one have "consistency" when one does not know the outcome?.....interesting.

Is that not the same as flipping a coin and expecting it to be right.....as you don't know what the outcome is going to be anyway so every trade is 50/50.....but the REAL question here is if a method/system can be right say 3 out of 10 and still be profitable then surely, logic is the lower this becomes, the less chance of success.....BUT the bigger question is "long term success" is only dependent on consistency.....is that really possible?.....Can a coin flip become an ATM machine?

What do you guys think?
 

Shakone

Senior member
That's the equivalent of asking can painting a wall become a teapot

This place gets worse day by day

What is it with you and teapots lately? Chocolate teapots, wall becoming a teapot?

The place doesn't get worse day by day. It fluctuates up and down. Not nearly as consistent as you'd like to think.
 

the hare

Senior member
What is it with you and teapots lately? Chocolate teapots, wall becoming a teapot?.

Its probably indicative of the complete lack of effort I put into posts. On both occasions that i posted I was drinking tea from a tea pot, and it was the first thing I saw.
 
C

cablemonster

Interesting video.....but "HOW" can one have "consistency" when one does not know the outcome?.....interesting.

Do casinos make consistent profits without knowing the outcome of each individual spin of the roulette wheel? :idea:
 

Triggerfish

Active member
Do casinos make consistent profits without knowing the outcome of each individual spin of the roulette wheel? :idea:

excellent point.....BUT that is not a "direct" comparison as a trader-market relationship.....is it?

If it is, then everyone will be successful.....like the casinos....no?
 

Shakone

Senior member
excellent point.....BUT that is not a "direct" comparison as a trader-market relationship.....is it?

If it is, then everyone will be successful.....like the casinos....no?

Why? If a casino allows card counters to come in and play as long as they want, then those casinos won't be successful, just like many traders.

Only casinos that don't allow this and don't allow excessive risk and ensure they have an edge will prosper, surely.
 

Triggerfish

Active member
Why? If a casino allows card counters to come in and play as long as they want, then those casinos won't be successful, just like many traders.

Only casinos that don't allow this and don't allow excessive risk and ensure they have an edge will prosper, surely.

Good point but not the point am making, however, your point is very relevant in the finer details.

so if we were to flip this:
we become card counters V casinos.....is this an acceptable comparison?

Card counters are smarter ones, they know the weakness of the system.....now.....can the same be found in the markets?.....is this not the REAL QUESTION here?

The only thing is we are not counting cards in the markets.....so what are we going to count instead?
 
C

cablemonster

excellent point.....BUT that is not a "direct" comparison as a trader-market relationship.....is it?

If it is, then everyone will be successful.....like the casinos....no?

no it's not a direct comparison. thinking may be required.
 

ffsear

Senior member
Card counters are smarter ones, they know the weakness of the system.....now.....can the same be found in the markets?.....is this not the REAL QUESTION here?


As in is there a direct mathematical edge that a card counter has? Not really, but having an edge in a situation can come in different forms.
 
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Lee Shepherd

Senior member
Hence my original question.....which is still not understood!

@Triggerfish,

You always ask questions that will be of no benefit to you, or at least should not be anyway (or to anyone else). Obviously the questions you ask promote many different answers and that helps T2W but I cant see the relation of what you ask to help you in making money from the markets. Do nearly all your posts end with a question???? I'll let you decide.

Thats my interpretation of the posts that I've seen you write.

So....... Do you want to trade, I see you have been on this site for many years so your interest must have peeked by now. If it has then what in particular did you want to know, what do you want to trade in and what kind of risk/reward are you looking for etc etc.

Don't see this as a dig (its not) but if you are not from T2W to inspire posts to be written then ask something pertinent to your trading or trading prospects as appose to questions that will not help man nor beast make money from the markets. If you are a T2W bot then obviously continue but if you are a genuine human wishing to make a little from the markets then many on here will help you.

I've fully understood the analogy's that have been put on here and personally thought them very good.

I await you next post so I can help if possible with something specific and genuine.

PS: Not sure how this post will come across but is in no way intended to offend. My reasoning is that the length of time you have been here and the questions that you ask are somewhat very vague and almost like you've not read any of the other posts on here or anywhere else to that effect. But, like I said, no offence is meant and sometimes posts can be taken out of context and on many occasions misread by many.

Lee
 

Lord Flasheart

Legendary member
Why? If a casino allows card counters to come in and play as long as they want, then those casinos won't be successful, just like many traders.

Only casinos that don't allow this and don't allow excessive risk and ensure they have an edge will prosper, surely.

all very logical and correct,but there is no true comparison. Card counters are stopped by the casino and more recently they are set up so that you cant have an edge at anytime.
A trader can trade where he likes and with whom he likes and theoretically can go on winning and winning. Even when we start trading we beleive we have and edge after reading one book,but surely that doesnt apply if we go to the casino,a gut feeling for red17 cant be the same feeling as my favorite pattern.

Ive probably gone of track a touch,sorry
 

Shakone

Senior member
all very logical and correct,but there is no true comparison. Card counters are stopped by the casino and more recently they are set up so that you cant have an edge at anytime.
A trader can trade where he likes and with whom he likes and theoretically can go on winning and winning. Even when we start trading we beleive we have and edge after reading one book,but surely that doesnt apply if we go to the casino,a gut feeling for red17 cant be the same feeling as my favorite pattern.

Ive probably gone of track a touch,sorry

That's not too far off from successful traders and 'some' spreadbet companies though. They may stop you playing.

Now wondering if there are times when the market stops (or discourages) you from playing.
 

Lee Shepherd

Senior member
Edge in trading is simply the ability of the trader to be RIGHT consistently. The markets are always right and the bigger question is are you the trader on the right side or on the wrong side?

Casinos have an edge hence they are in business, it is the odds that are in their advantage to win over time. So it is fair to conclude the odds, the rules of payout and restrictions of bets in place are part of a system of controls. eg. Roulette. These rules are there for their own benefit and not the punter.

In blackjack, it is similar but it is based on cards yet there is a possiblilty of beating the system because you can count cards, it is based on the probability and understanding the odds and play it to your advantage and not theirs. Casinos have rules and the punter usually plays along the rules, if you do that, you lose.

In trading, an example would be riding the trends. The markets moves in a particular way and for the trader to win, it needs to see this beforehand so to establish a system to take advantage of it. That system would be defined by rules to allow the trader to enter and exit to complete the trade or trades. The example is simply following your system to ride the trends, some will lose but most will win, and for the ones that wins, they can win more because you are allowing it to run, just like a trend. The edge itself is that your winners will earn you a lot more than the losers so the advantage you have over time is you will win.

The casino rules are a system and the punter who does not have one will lose.
The markets is a system and the trader without a plan / system will lose.

How can you beat an enemy without knowing their weakness?

Not sure why you are not getting the casino analogy. Especially when you have quoted similar previously.

My conclusion is that you are either someone else from the person that originally was posting in 2009 and 2010 or something has happened and you have taken several many steps back, this would equate to blowups.

when you first joined you had some great insights and good contributions, something has happened since the break you had in 2010 to when you were active again of late.

I'm sure many on here can help if you explain what has happened.

Lee
 

Lord Flasheart

Legendary member
That's not too far off from successful traders and 'some' spreadbet companies though. They may stop you playing.

Now wondering if there are times when the market stops (or discourages) you from playing.

yes but theres always direct access.If you win at a casino they will put you in a hotel for the night and hope you come back the next day. They know you cant win over time,SB have a small % that win. Fixed odds bookies wont let you win and will even try and stop you betting if they consider your staking and pattern irregular.

Wouldnt it have been nice to be a card counter in the early 60s in the uk. I guess it was safer than vegas.I wonder how many counters there were before thorps book came out.Even in the 70s and early 80s it was still possible to exploit the counting edge.I supposed a few have ways that they mechanically can exploit the sb firms nowadays but probably very few.
 

Shakone

Senior member
yes but theres always direct access.If you win at a casino they will put you in a hotel for the night and hope you come back the next day. They know you cant win over time,SB have a small % that win. Fixed odds bookies wont let you win and will even try and stop you betting if they consider your staking and pattern irregular.

Wouldnt it have been nice to be a card counter in the early 60s in the uk. I guess it was safer than vegas.I wonder how many counters there were before thorps book came out.Even in the 70s and early 80s it was still possible to exploit the counting edge.I supposed a few have ways that they mechanically can exploit the sb firms nowadays but probably very few.

Yes you're right. They are not the same thing. But it is still a reasonable comparison.

Thorp was able to prove it mathematically, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if there were plenty of 'naturals' who had their own system, just like there were those who figured out the Black Scholes option pricing idea before it was published.

The edge is actually quite small in casinos. I think from 0.1-1% The edge if you're card counting probably not much more than 1%. Still would have taken capital, skill and a lot of discipline.
 
 
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