Marconi

[shelman]

MONI
If support holds at 370ish it's almost possible to draw a straight line through the lows since early April. A lot depends on whether the rally continues, today and tommorrow will be critical on the Nas, but if it does hold, it's one of the best indications of entry point at support i've seen.
Steve

ps Anyone tell me how to attach a chart. A simple cut / paste doesn't seem to work.

 

[Riz]

Down -38.0 (-9.6%) to 356...thanks to Sun Microsystems, Alcatel and ThyssenKrupp Profit Warnings...

Steve, I am attaching a 3 month chart to show recent price movements clearly...from here down support is every 5 or 10 points...the last major one where a strong bounce occurred being 350...it's worth to note that MONI was just about to rally and retest recent highs right before the last negative sentiment started...that's also when I got in at 398 and out at 394.5 seeing the sentiment taking them down...I won't be hesitating to long them at the first sign of a turn round no matter at what support below the current level they are...as for me buy on the dips is still the name of the game

PS: to attach a chart you need to save it on your hard disk as a .gif file first...then you click the browse at the bottom of your post (reply) and find the file on your hard disk and open it...don't worry about the rest, our sharky will take care of it

Riz
(No finacial advice intended)

 

[RogerM]

Shelman - I had come to the same conclusion but sold out at 364.25 for a loss when it fell thru the trend. Down another 8 this morning. I wouldn't be surprised to see this test 300 again where there is strong support and where I would be a buyer, provided that there is evidence of support holding at this level.

 

[shelman]

Thanks Riz
I'm waiting 'til later for the Nas. I've done very well out of MONI since the start of the tax year having last sold for 411 on 22nd ( bt 359 on 14th )
You can see i don't trade as often as you i prefer to be patient on winners like this... it suits me better.
Just seen your post Roger, i hope you're right but just can't see it .

Steve

ps have you seen Ed Downs web site... remember he used to post his report on the old BB :-

http://www.signaltraders.com/omnitrader/signalwatch/signalwatch.html

 

[shelman]

Ran out of patience... bought for 352

 

[Riz]

Hehe...Steve you trying to beat me on this?

Riz

 

[shelman]

I would never be so presumptuous Riz.
Back in ARM too, hehe.
Just hope the Nas does the biz.
Steve

 

[Riz]

I am not in yet, Steve...but I'll be watching them closely next week...

today's telegraph tipping them a long-term buy..

http://money.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2001/06/03/ccmm03.xml

Riz

 

[shelman]

Hi Riz
I'm still holding although it was a close thing. 330 was and is the danger point for me. If the Nas had gone belly up 330 would have been breached and the possibility of 300, as Roger said, definitely on.
I'm quite comfortable with the position having traded it several times since early April and it would need to fall to 240ish before my gains evaporate.
I see it as a good long termer but will continue to get what i can, when i can, out of it.
This way suits my style and means i'm not glued to a screen all day, everyday.
I' m dealing ARM and LOG the same way (not in LOG at min )

Steve

ps i should also point out that i've used this strategy for about 15 years with my two oil favourites with outstanding success... i still think new historical highs will be formed this summer, although not as early as May, which i'd suggested as a possibility, back in early March i think.

 

[Riz]

Hi Steve,

I wouldn't worry about your MONI holding...they were set for a rally when they were around 400 right before the last negative telco sentiment started...I got in at 398 and out at 394.5 due to the -ve sentiment in general not that I was worried about moni...

Anyway this must be your lucky weekend...positive news on MONI just keep coming

Here is another one from Financial Mail:

US giant Cisco systems is considering a £12bn bid for UK telecoms firm Marconi. Marconi would represent a significant European operation for Cisco, which supplies many of the systems necessary for the internet's infrastructure. Marconi needs to raise more capital for further investment, and is considering selling off its medical equipment division, estimated to be worth £1.5bn. Marconi's shares closed down 15.5p on Friday to 338p

Riz
(no financial advice intended)

 

[shelman]

I'ts a funny old game, Riz.
How many times do we see a quality stock get a battering and then out of the blue news like this materialises.
It may come to nothing but i was watching the size of trades last week and a lot of heavies were able to get in at a discounted price.
We'll find out soon enough.
Good luck
Steve

 

[RogerM]

Hmmmm! The 300 support level is getting close - currently 307-309. I see this as a critical level for MONI - if it doesn't hold it could go anywhere.

 

[shelman]

Yep, i agree, i'm almost certain i'll be buying tomorrow.
The shorters will need to cover and i think next week will bring a rally.
I base all my judgement on 'Tiger' winning the US open.
Good luck if you have a dabble
Steve

 

[Uncle]

.............and so the LOW goes ever LOWER!!!!!!

Beware of this one...........so many on this BB must have lost a small fortune this last year trading this stock!!

 

[RogerM]

Well, whadyaknow! In mid January a senior executive of Marconi, which is a client of the brokerage I work for, addressed our annual conference. At the time the share price was 700+ and he was lamenting the low price and enthusiastically forecasting 1500 within 2 years. I'm glad I'm a better stockpicker than him!

So do we have a 2 year 13 bagger here? I don't think so. I sold out at around 364, disgruntled, for a small loss when the apparant recovery failed to make a new higher high. I looked again at around 300 where there was potential support, but with no sign of a base forming I bottled out. I think this just goes to show that there are no experts and that we must believe our own research, which is as valid as anyone's. Also, bottom picking is dangerous, and I won't be tempted unless a substantial base has formed, AND the sector looks positive.

 

[ChartMan]

And the rest is history as they say.....