Making Money Trading

[new_trader]

[EDIT]

If people want to hear other market live calls I will do that too. But hopefully everyone realises that the aim is to not to follow me, just look to see what I do and then use it combined with what you already know!

Trader_Dante,

I asked you to post a live call which you did, so as far as I am concerned you have at least put your money where your mouth is, good on you for that. I know that making a live trade call is tough and puts you under the spotlight and additional unnecessary pressure when trying to manage your own trade. I would strongly advise you against making any further live calls because as you have seen, there are some people here who will blindly copy the trade when they ought to be doing nothing but watching and learning. I suppose it’s their insatiable greed for money that is overriding logic and reason.

 

[trader_dante]

Well, for better or worse, the poll results are in!

Indices win so I am going to concentrate my operations in this area (with regards to this thread).

I would still like to post setups and calls on the other markets too, though.

The point of letting you all choose a market was to show you that price action works across all of them. However, as I have said before, I find it easier to make money in some markets rather than in others. Less than 10% of the money I have made in my personal account has come from trading indices.

However, indices provide some clear and very profitable signals so without further ado lets do this!

Wish me luck!

 

[Directional]

Well, for better or worse, the poll results are in!

Indices win so I am going to concentrate my operations in this area (with regards to this thread).

I vote DAX from the indices :cheesy:

 

[timm]

However, as I have said before, I find it easier to make money in some markets rather than in others. Less than 10% of the money I have made in my personal account has come from trading indices.

Well we didn't want to make it too easy for you.

Wish me luck!

Good luck!

 

[milan47]

Aud/usd

Hi DT

I just wanted to say thank you for your dedication of teaching us. I can finally see some of the things I did not see before and I have spent the last couple of days drawing S/L lines everywhere, including the kitchen cabinets. Of course, my wife is a bit worried now, which is a little surprising since she is a psych nurse.

Anyway, this trade worked out not too bad, even though I fell asleep in the middle of it. By the time I woke up,(10 EST), the pair came down to my original entry (0.9176), but then returned to the previous high where I closed the trade. (+39).
One more thing, One of the veteran traders on FF, Soultrader advises to draw the lines by switching to line charts that indicate only the open and close of the move. Do you think that it gives us a more precise picture?
Thank you again and I hope that I did not pollute the thread too much.

That is a nice looking pin that comes back to a key fib.

Remember though, the more you factors can get in your favour when you take a trade, the more chance it will be a winning one.

I would rarely, if ever, play a pin off a fib alone. I would want to see that it is also bouncing off an area of support or resistance and preferably an area that has flipped between the two.

If you have experience with a particular moving average that you have found reliable, add that to your chart and see where it comes in.

Many traders also use calculated pivots. You can download a pivot calculator very easily and for free from the web, enter in the details including open, close, high and low and it will give you a pivot point. Traders DO use these so it can be another tool in your arsenal. However, I will tell you that although I have looked at them in the past, I no longer use them. I really like to keep things as simple as possible.

One element that you can also use is bullish or bearish divergence on your preferred indicator. This is the only reason I ever use an indicator and even then it is rare I check for this. Having said that, it can give a good signal if you have, for example, a sustained move down to support, with bullish divergence (indicator making highs while price makes lows) and then a pin bar setup.

I am not going to get into divergence now but I may mention it in the future.

The next element I will be showing you all is an excellent moving average system that you can play with the price action I am teaching. I will do this soon.

 

[trader_dante]

One of the veteran traders on FF, Soultrader advises to draw the lines by switching to line charts that indicate only the open and close of the move. Do you think that it gives us a more precise picture?
Thank you again and I hope that I did not pollute the thread too much.

Hi milan47,

I know some very good traders that also use this technique.

I saw a post once where a trader posted two charts. In the first bar chart it was hard to quickly pinpoint any clear areas of S/R but when he showed it as a line chart it was immediately obvious where they were.

Still, it is not something I do. I like to draw my lines by looking at candles or barcharts so that I can see the EXTREMES of the moves.

In my experience, I have found that "if it ain't broke, don't fix it".

 

[smbtnt]

dow

Hi TD,

Would you trade this as a high probability set up? Fib retrace, doji at previous s/r zone but no confluence.
Interesting to have your input on this one seeing as this thread will be primarily on trading indices.

 

[forexbee]

Hi TD,

Would you trade this as a high probability set up? Fib retrace, doji at previous s/r zone but no confluence.
Interesting to have your input on this one seeing as this thread will be primarily on trading indices.

Hi smbtnt

Just my observation (if wrong, pls correct). Setup looks good and i believe it could go ride till 38.2% + few pips below, bcoz as we see between 21-Sep-07 & 27-Sep-07 there is a doji formation which acts as support area. There is already a confluence pivot and fib 61.8% line which signals for short...
Someone can correct me if iam wrong...

Fxbee

 

[lurkerlurker]

I vote DAX from the indices :cheesy:

I second that. I've had enough of the ES and YM, and the Dax looks interesting. Also, I can trade the futures price in the bucket shops for a 2 point spread. My first market was the FTSE, and that was rather boring and difficult.

 

[firewalker99]

I second that. I've had enough of the ES and YM, and the Dax looks interesting. Also, I can trade the futures price in the bucket shops for a 2 point spread. My first market was the FTSE, and that was rather boring and difficult.

Here I am again lurker, sorry to keep chasing you down but looks to me like you are looking for "excitement" in the market. DAX sure has plenty of volatile moves over time. But I think trading should be boring... if you are looking for something else than perhaps you are looking into the wrong profession :|

 

[firewalker99]

I vote DAX from the indices :cheesy:

I vote against DAX. Might lead to a bloodbath

Edit: CAC40 for me. There aren't many out there who look at this market, so looks like nobody will have an advantage.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Here I am again lurker, sorry to keep chasing you down but looks to me like you are looking for "excitement" in the market. DAX sure has plenty of volatile moves over time. But I think trading should be boring... if you are looking for something else than perhaps you are looking into the wrong profession :|

Thanks for chasing me down. I don't want to take the thread off topic, but I can assure you I am looking for pips and consistent equity growth, not excitement. Short £20pp in the Dow in August was exciting enough, and I don't want to be doing that again!

 

[fibonelli]

I'm doing some testing on a volatile instrument.

I thought you'd all like to see this 30 min chart of multiple pinbars and hammers . I've circled them in blue!

4 hour chart showing big picture S&R - candle also highlighted in blue.

enjoy

 

[trader_dante]

Aud/Cad update

A quick update on this pair.

The minor S/R pivot I drew in before taking the trade has now made the transition into a significant one.

If you have followed each post I made on that call, this should really start to get you to see that it is not hard to pinpoint with a good deal of accuracy, certain areas that price has a high probability of turning at.

 

[trader_dante]

Hi TD,

Would you trade this as a high probability set up? Fib retrace, doji at previous s/r zone but no confluence.
Interesting to have your input on this one seeing as this thread will be primarily on trading indices.

Hi smbtnt,

The price action itself ruins this setup in my opinion. This doji represent indecision and is often found at areas where price consolidates or catches its breath before moving on. The doji also appears to have a small range. When bars have a low range you have to be careful because price can drift into your stop order, fill you and then turn. That is why pin bars are reliable because they show that price momentum (at least in that bar) has significantly turned. When you enter this move you are on the RIGHT side of this momentum.

Aside from this though it's not bad. There is a visible S/R pivot and it is close enough to have confluence with the 61 fib.

But smbtnt, look at your chart again. This is what you want to see. A pin bar with a long nose that by virtue of its length shows a FIRM rejection of that previous resistance level on the left and confirms it is now support. This really stands out to me. This is probably because it worked. But I can tell you that if I had seen that I would have almost certainly taken it.

While I'm at it let me write for a minute about the 4hr TF. I don't trade 4hr setups.

There is no real reason for this. I just don't. I actually learnt this technique with the aim of applying it to daily bars. I was always told that until you have mastered the higher timeframes you shouldn't trade the lower. I was advised to make sure I was a consistent winner on daily and weekly before moving down to 4hr and 1hr. However, who ever does what they're told?

After learning the technique and trying the daily timeframes, I went straight in on 1hr and it is only then that I found considerable success.

I make almost all of my money trading 1hr setups.

So, as I said, you can get some great setups on 4hr but for some reason I skipped it and as a result don't feel totally comfortable trading it now.

 

[Tennis]

A quick update on this pair.

The minor S/R pivot I drew in before taking the trade has now made the transition into a significant one.

If you have followed each post I made on that call, this should really start to get you to see that it is not hard to pinpoint with a good deal of accuracy, certain areas that price has a high probability of turning at.

Hi trader_dante - I am new to this and I am wondering if perhaps you had seen this chart just now, or perhaps whenever that third pin (or closely resembling a pin) formed... would you have entered in on the trade? Or has the tail fallen too low below the s/r line?

Thanks for all you are doing.

 

[trader_dante]

I'm doing some testing on a volatile instrument.

I thought you'd all like to see this 30 min chart of multiple pinbars and hammers . I've circled them in blue!

4 hour chart showing big picture S&R - candle also highlighted in blue.

enjoy

Shares! On 30m charts! :!:

Fib - I have to say that I am not keen on the look of your pins. The first one has a big body in relation to the nose and the open/close is not within the left eye. The other pins are "in traffic". What I mean by that is that their nose doesn't poke out into space away from the other bars.

 

[forexbee]

A quick update on this pair.

The minor S/R pivot I drew in before taking the trade has now made the transition into a significant one.

If you have followed each post I made on that call, this should really start to get you to see that it is not hard to pinpoint with a good deal of accuracy, certain areas that price has a high probability of turning at.

Hi TD,
Just saw your chart, (I hope arrows you pointed are pinbars ) from extreme right first one marked with down arrow does it qualify a PIN....looks the body of candle is long....!...?

By the way, using your lessons, GBPCHF is on short entry and 39pips as i write this post....

Fxbee

 

[trader_dante]

Hi trader_dante - I am new to this and I am wondering if perhaps you had seen this chart just now, or perhaps whenever that third pin (or closely resembling a pin) formed... would you have entered in on the trade? Or has the tail fallen too low below the s/r line?

Thanks for all you are doing.

EDIT: Tennis is referring to the pin bar that was forming as I posted this chart above: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/attachment.php?attachmentid=30462&d=1193770559

Tennis - this is a great question. I was sitting here just now staring at this setup and wondering why I didn't want to go long.

Ultimately as a trader you have to decide whether you are going to commit some money to a trading idea.

I see you are in California so you probably won't have heard of this but over here in the UK we have a programme on Television called Dragons Den.

In this program, a group of rich entrepreneurs sit in a room and people come in with products they have designed and made to show the group and try and convince them to invest in their idea. Perhaps they need capital backing so they can go into production or perhaps it is for marketing costs. Anyway, the point is, the entrepreneurs sit there and they listen to the person, look at the product, ask some questions and consider whether they want to invest in the person and their idea.

Sometimes they think the product has great potential and will make them a worthwhile profit for the risk taken in investing in it. If so, they negotiate a deal to provide the money for a percentage stake in the business.

You can see though, that from time to time, although everything looks good on "paper", some of them get a negative feeling from the person. It could be because they feel they are being told a lie or it could be the way they come across in their behaviour. Maybe you can see where I am going with this...

Would I invest in this chart based on this setup? The answer is no.

Do I have a clear answer I can express to you as to why? The answer is also no.

The closest I can come to a reason is that the pin nose is not poking out far enough from the other bars and there is also not enough space between it and the other bars. I think the body extends too far up into the previous bar. Something just doesn't feel right about it. That doesn't mean it won't work it's just that there are so many trade setups out there that there is no harm in moving on and waiting for the next one.

 

[lurkerlurker]

By the way, using your lessons, GBPCHF is on short entry and 39pips as i write this post....

Fxbee

Pleased to hear you are making some pips forexbee, and more importantly are watching the thread. However, I wouldn't trade a pin bar on a M5 chart, no matter how convincing it looks. Perhaps trader_dante could tell us a little more about which timeframes he considers to be valid.

The trade is in the direction of the trend though - taking a trade with the trend can bail you out of almost anything.

I've looked at the GBP/CHF, and the only entry I see is the pin bar at 19:35 on the M5. Could you let us know which signal you took, and where your stop and target are?