Major Currency-pair Signals Analysis And Market News

[willissom1]

Major Currency pair Signals

EURUSD

Entry Point: Buy at 1.1882 Take Profit: 1.1913 Stop Loss: 1.1841

GBPUSD

Entry Point: Buy at 1.3152 Take Profit: 1.3183 Stop Loss: 1.3111

USDCHF

Entry Point: Sell at 0.9673 Take Profit: 0.9642 Stop Loss: 0.9714

USDJPY

Entry Point: Sell at 110.10 Take Profit: 109.79 Stop Loss: 110.51



AUDUSD rallies further with large option expiry interest in play

Session highs of 0.7943 now for AUDUSD 8 Aug

Earlier I posted my daily update on expiries and noted the AUDUSD rally to 0.7931 from 0.7910 and warned a further attempt on 0.7950 could not be ruled out.

Large expiries at 0.7950 in play and with highs of 0.7943 we're back to 0.7935 as the sell-side interest prevails for the moment.

 

[willissom1]

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY fails on break lower. Shorts cover.

The USDJPY sprinted lower yesterday. Then sprinted back higher and by the close, it was sprinting back lower again.

In the Asian session, the move lower was extended. The pair reached a trend line on the hourly (red circle 4), and bounced. Then fell below the trend line not just once but twice. The high correction price on the break stalled at the 109.84 area. That was the lows from August 3rd and 4th. Staying below would have been more bearish....

BUT

The price could not stay below, and the sellers covered on the failures.

That type of price action, comes with the territory when geopolitical stuff happens. You just don't know which way the wind with blow next.

So traders tend to keep a short leash on the trades at technical levels. If the price continues the run, all is happy. If the price does not continue the run, the trades are closed/reversed. Today, the trades were closed/reversed.

The reverse took the price back to the 110.10-23 area and stalled there.

What is the significance?

Looking at the daily chart, I am hanging on to the area as a bullish above/bearish below level. Going back in time, there has been a number of swing levels in that area (see red circles).

The high corrective price off the failed breaks today stalled at 110.16 (between the two extremes). I guess, geopolitical fear subsiding stalled the fall... but not all the way. There is still some fear and the area is keeping a lid on the rally for now.

So going forward, watch the 109.84 on the downside for support, and then the old trend line on the hourly at 109.73. On the topside, a move above 110.10-23 would be more bullish.

 

[willissom1]

EUR/USD most overbought in a long time, could test 1.15 - BAML

EUR/USD needs to go lower before it goes higher

Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Technical Strategy Research notes that EUR/USD rally keeps showing signs of exhaustion around current levels.

"The seven month rally has surpassed a long term Fibonacci level (38.2% 1.1743) and is the most overbought in a very long time.

Tactically we think EURUSD should at least consolidate at this 200wk SMA, if not correct to test some support levels.

The long discussed 1.15 level may be what EURUSD needs to test before it can resume it strong uptrend into the 1.20's, such as 1.2172," BofAML argues.

 

[willissom1]

Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD snaps back after crack of triple bottom fails

Other support at the 50% and July swing low at 1.2928-31

The GBPUSD was on the defensive as technical selling and a running EURGBP also impacted the price actionTechnically the price moved up to the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and found sellers.. The tumble lower, was able to push below the triple bottom at the 1.2950 level only to stall ahead of the next target at the July 2017 lows and the 50% retracement of the move up from the June lows at 1.2928-31 (the low reached 1.2938).

The price has snapped back and is trading more toward the middle of the 50%/200 bar MA range now at 1.2972.

Looking at the EURGBP, the pair tried to break above top side trend lines, but momentum faded and that has helped the GBPUSD rebound as well

 

[willissom1]

CFTC Commitments of Traders. Speculators increase US dollar bets to largest since Jan 2013



Forex futures net speculative positions as of the close of business on Tuesday August 8, 2017

EUR long 94K vs 83K long last week. Longs increased by 11K
GBP short 25K vs 29K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K.
JPY short 96K vs 112K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 16K
CHF short 1K vs 1K long last week. 2K new longs
CAD long 63K vs 41K short. CAD longs increased by 22K.
AUD long 58k vs 61k last week. Longs trimmed by 3K.
NZD long 33K vs 35K long last week. Longs trimmed by 2K

Highlights:

JPY shorts trimmed by 16K in the current week
Longs in the EUR increased by 11K. The largest long since May 2011. The EURUSD is closing at the higher weekly close since January 2015

 

[willissom1]

Morgan Stanley revised FX outlook: No universal USD story as in first 8 mths of 2017

From the bank's weekly 'Pulse' research note, revised currency projections. They expect the broad USD index to fall; with EURUSD higher but GBPUSD lower, EURGBP moving beyond parity & EURCHF "accelerating towards 1.20"
From the note, in brief:
On EUR:

Real money investors may increase their EUR exposure ... pension funds and insurance companies (such as those in Switzerland and Japan) start to increase their net EUR currency exposure from historically low levels
increasing FX-unhedged inflows into EMU equities recently
MS warn: The Jackson Hole Symposium later this month could be an avenue for ECB President Draghi "leaning against EUR strength", but "it will be about winning time and not about a fundamental change in its current policy approach"

On GBP, likely to weaken in its own right:

driven by weak economic performance (household sector has increased spending, primarily funded by unsecured lending, which is unsustainable. A consolidation of the household balance sheet, coupled with negative real wage growth, may reduce consumption, which has been propping up growth so far),
low real yields
and increasing political risks (rifts within the Conservative Party have become visible again, leaving the question on where the PM will position herself in respect of Brexit)

Yen:

MS look for yen weakness for now but "the set-up for a USDJPY rally has remained in place". The bank looks for yen strength in 2018

 

[willissom1]

Forex technical analysis: AUDUSD moves toward low from Friday

Moves toward a test of the 2016 high price too

The AUDUSD is trading at the session lows and in the process is moving toward last Friday's low and a retest of the 2016 high price from April 2016 at 0.7834. The low has just reached 0.7844. The low last week reached 0.7838. The high price from July 9th week reached 0.7833.

 

[willissom1]

Date:14-08-2017

Major Currency pair Signals by Forex Signals Es

EUR USD : +19 Pips

USD JPY : +22 Pips

GBP USD : +24 Pips

USD CHF : +27 Pips

Total Profit hit +92 Pips

 

[willissom1]

US trade representative Lighthizer says looks forward to productive NAFTA talks

The NAFTA talks start today.
The NAFTA talks will start today between the US, Canada and Mexico. The US trade representative is Robert Lighthizer. An experienced trade negotiator and litigator, Ambassador Lighthizer brings a history of tough U.S. trade enforcement and a record of standing up for American workers, farmers, manufacturers, and businesses.

He adds:

Need to modernize NAFTA to include digital trade, e-commerce
Hopes to create model provisions in NAFTA that can be used in future years
Will seek to protect farmers
NAFTA has failed for countless Americans. cannot ignore trade deficits
At least 700K Americans have lost jobs due to NAFTA changing trade flows
Must ensure that huge NAFTA trade deficits do not continue and there is reciproocity
Autos mus have higher NAFTA content.
Dispute settlement systems must ensure national soverignty
US priorities show that NAFTA negotiators have difficult tasks


Meanwhile Canada's representative Chrystia Freeland is on the wires saying:

Does not view trade surpluses/deficits as primary measure of whether a trading relationship works
US, Canada and Mexico have powerful shared interest in reaching mutually beneficial NAFTA agreement

Mexico's Guajardo says:

Issue with NAFTA is not tearing apart what has worked
In best interesst of 3 economies to move fast forwward, taking fully into account the substance, content of negotiations
Mexico comes to NAFTA negotiations to play constructive role, to advance our interests and goals without risking what region has achieved.

The talks will likely go as well as President Trumps winning record. They will already be tough for Canada and Mexico, but if the President is on a losing streak, you can imagine he might instruct Lighthizer to hold a hard line in order to get a win. The talks will likely take a few months to complete.