LuckyD1976's ST-MT plays

[luckyd1976]

Cant sleep and frankly alittle bored. SO I've decided Im going to blog out my thoughts, reasoning(s), and trades here for everyone. Now this journal isnt going to be for DT. Sry you cant just teach people how to do that, trust me Ive tried. But this will be more of ST-MT plays (>1wk)

1st the Basics.

1) Identify Trend (Pick Your Side)
A good ST play relies on an affective recognition of trend. Once you get comfortable in picking the trend, then there are thousands of ways to profit. For me, Im a SP500 guy that focuses on Daily charts and Breakouts for my ST-MT plays.

2) Choose Your Play (Choose Your Weapon)
Once you get the trend recognition down then its really up to you on the weapon you choose to slay the markets with. Im not going to say one is better than the other. Because frankly each has a different Risk/Reward profile and I tend to switch back and forth anyway to keep my % Risk Management in Check.

Thats about it... So hopefully this will be fun and all of us can make some money and bounce some ideas around.

 

[luckyd1976]

I'll start today as if I have NO POSITIONS

1) Step 1 Identify Trend (Pick Your Side)
Bearish with ST 832.98 Stop...Mondays trading was interesting. Big down day but clearly a breakout of the low on the 25th. And given the last two days of trading pullbacks Im going to give a ST Bear trend with a nice Stop at 832.98.

2) Choose Your Play (Choose Your Weapon)
My favored picks for Tuesday's price action will be either the S-SPY, L-BGZ, Call Spread-SPY, or B2O SPY MAY 62Puts ".SWVQJ"

 

[luckyd1976]

I'm eye-balling the SPY APR 90/88 Call Spread.

With US set to open alittle higher (So far) +5%-6% return for such a short hold. I'll be watching this most of the day. Late Day is when I enter most of my (3pm ish)Options picks.

I'll also be looking to fade this open this morning on DT and look to capitalize on the MT trend with the SPY MAY62 Puts ".SWVQJ"

Man I'm so tired today, hurry up and get here Market open...

 

[luckyd1976]

I'll also be looking to fade this open this morning on DT and look to capitalize on the MT trend with the SPY MAY62 Puts ".SWVQJ"

Man I'm so tired today, hurry up and get here Market open...

Since the Open I'm liking the SPY May63 PUTS for those with smaller accounts trying to play the MT Bearish Trend.

So far looks lke today is the classic tight directional-less day. After yesterdays sell off it was predictable really. That was my main reason for the Opening Fade play on DT. No real news premarket and Daily Charts pointing lower with the Higher Open.

 

[luckyd1976]

So far looks lke today is the classic tight directional-less day. After yesterdays sell off it was predictable really. That was my main reason for the Opening Fade play on DT. No real news premarket and Daily Charts pointing lower with the Higher Open.

Will today finish up strong or stay Inside bar of yesterday?

 

[luckyd1976]

Step 1) Still Bearish SPX w/832.98 stop
Step 2) With todays price action pulling so far back from yesterdays push down, Im going to play this ST-MT trend with an SPY APR 92/90 Call Spread w/NetCred $0.10 or better. This Play, I get the benefit of time decay 17 days til Exp. And two real hard stop levels before ITM($83.30 and $88-ish)

For those smaller accounts (who need homeruns) You can play out the ST-MT trend via SPY, May 65 Put for less than 1% of Underlying Price.

 

[luckyd1976]

Im just hoping the day slows on out to a close lol.

I was getting worried there for a moment. 812 on SPX is the Retracement area. But we blew up all day and pulled Back.

 

[luckyd1976]

Good Morning. Well, I'm relieved to see us pull back even further from the highs of the day yesterday. Yesterday was an odd day. Nothing new as in real news. And still that was a big day. So that tells me yesterday was the window dressing day. Big money was re-allocating/rebalancing because yesterday was the end of Q1. Most End of Qrts arent really big days so that was alittle unexpected. That was a big move though. But hey low volumes can do that.

1) Still Bearish. 2) Being played with SPY APR 92/90 Call Spread

 

[luckyd1976]

Big ol Fade this morning. Nice Bounce off 800 on the SPX Hopefully this holds today.

 

[luckyd1976]

Pushed through the 800. Next big Resist is 812 (61% retrace)

 

[luckyd1976]

Good Morning. Well yesterdays close was up. And it look slike the Futures pushed higher in the overnight. I'm Bearish still but barely. Im really concerned todays "Review" as they are calling it on Mark To Market. Supposely there's going to be some decision/discussion on it today. As crazy as this market has been, that would be the excuse to blow the market higher. Im still Bearish but I'm going to look at some Bullish XLF Calls today for a shortterm lift of the M2Market. Maybe even the 3xFinancial "FAS" for DT scalping today. Im going to move in my MidTerm stop to 830 on SP500. Even if we blow to the upside today, Tomorrows NFP is another excuse to blow it all away to the downside.

 

[luckyd1976]

Well for those who have been reading. This morning SPX crossed the 830. Im going to a close out my APR 92/90 Call spread later in the day. I was filled at 0.11 so If I was to close right now it would be a0.24 spread. So by me waiting until later in the day hopefully the market will pull back some but if not oh well thats the importance of diversification/risk management, live to fight another day.

1) Bullish SPX (779.81 Stop)
2) Im going to wait til Friday NFP for my new MT pick.

 

[luckyd1976]

I'm kicking myself allittle Because all wk long everyone was talking about the M2M advisement coming today. I should of acted on it. Oh well missed opportunity right there to trade the expected News. A 1% allocation in FAS (+11%)

 

[luckyd1976]

Im going to a close out my APR 92/90 Call spread later in the day. I was filled at 0.11 so If I was to close right now it would be a0.24 spread. So by me waiting until later in the day hopefully the market will pull back some but if not oh well thats the importance of diversification/risk management, live to fight another day.

Call Spread closed at $0.30

 

[luckyd1976]

Good Morning. NFP 25 minutes.

1) Bullish (w/779.81 Stop)
2) Waiting to make my MT play til after the Jobs Report action

 

[luckyd1976]

NFP

Will it be Less Bad? Or just Bad? lol Oh the craziness of Economists

 

[luckyd1976]

-663k in MAR. The market will say this is less worse than the 700k Expected Whisper, blah blah blah. Wait for the Reaction

 

[luckyd1976]

Non Event for Equities really

 

[luckyd1976]

You know what, Im going back to bed, get some more sleep. Aahhh the joy of working from home. Then Golfing today. Enjoy the weekend everyone...