Looking for a Forex strategy with zero profitability

Dimtrad

Junior member
18 10
This may be a strange question, but I am looking for a Forex strategy with zero or very small profitability after all fees have been taken into account. Preferably should either generate 1-2 signals a day so I can place trades manually or trade fully automatically.
Now the hard part - it should not have any significant drawdowns, the equity curve should gently rise and fall, the strategy should be very stable for in it's outcome for years and years.

Now you must be asking - who in his right mind would be willing to trade a strategy without any expectation of making a profit? The answer is no one, I do expect to make a profit but in some other ways.
 

pboyles

Legendary member
8,072 1,301
This may be a strange question, but I am looking for a Forex strategy with zero or very small profitability after all fees have been taken into account. Preferably should either generate 1-2 signals a day so I can place trades manually or trade fully automatically.
Now the hard part - it should not have any significant drawdowns, the equity curve should gently rise and fall, the strategy should be very stable for in it's outcome for years and years.

Now you must be asking - who in his right mind would be willing to trade a strategy without any expectation of making a profit? The answer is no one, I do expect to make a profit but in some other ways.
Are you going to market it as a new secret nazi box and sell it to unsuspecting fools? That would probably be profitable and zero risk for you. Unfortunately you're not the first to think of it.
 

Dimtrad

Junior member
18 10
Are you going to market it as a new secret nazi box and sell it to unsuspecting fools? That would probably be profitable and zero risk for you. Unfortunately you're not the first to think of it.
This is actually a good idea, I did not though about that. No, I am not looking to package and sell the system, there are certain tax advantages that can be gained by racking up trades.
 

pboyles

Legendary member
8,072 1,301
This is actually a good idea, I did not though about that. No, I am not looking to package and sell the system, there are certain tax advantages that can be gained by racking up trades.
OK like pip rebates from zulutrade or the other ones. That's not exactly a tax break but I get the idea. I still think the secret nazi box would do better, there's a terrible shortage of them nowadays.

I have some more marketing ideas for you, but you'll need to break a few codes first.
 

the hare

Senior member
2,949 1,283
Some sort of diversified hedged basket perhaps ? Random entries with Negatively correlated instruments ?

I think the problem is that in order to overcome transaction costs, any edge that you apply to overcome costs runs the risk of making significant profits !

Ignoring costs, its as hard to design non profitable systems, but you could get somewhere close to break even just through diversification and juggling position sizing.

I like the fact that your thinking outside the box

What about exploting the no swap paid or recieved loop hole using the old Islamic account scam ? That's probably still viable, but I doubt you'll find a reputable broker, so it's a risky proposition. Options perhaps ?, touch / no touch boundaries and the like.
 
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Hakuna Matata

Well-known member
357 209
if you want a zero profitability system after costs, you obviously need a strategy that is gross profitable... in this case, I would search through econometric / behavioral finance journals - quite often they present trading strategies that are profitable before costs but break-even/negligible downside after spreads and fees etc... seasonal spreads spring to mind, but they can vary quite a bit in style... last one I remember reading was on effects of order flow in ccy's.

If it's just trades you want to generate though, then there are other options on the table - but transaction costs are impossible to avoid, it depends on whether the tax advantages make up for them. for example, you could try going long/short single names in different countries
 

BeginnerJoe

Senior member
3,329 350
Trade 0.0001% of account per trade. On 2 trades a day, you will break even for a long time regardless of strategy.
 

trendie

Legendary member
6,233 1,007
Dimtrad,

do you want a net zero strat to use to collect premiums via writing options?
 

Dimtrad

Junior member
18 10
Some sort of diversified hedged basket perhaps ? Random entries with Negatively correlated instruments ?

I think the problem is that in order to overcome transaction costs, any edge that you apply to overcome costs runs the risk of making significant profits !

Ignoring costs, its as hard to design non profitable systems, but you could get somewhere close to break even just through diversification and juggling position sizing.

I like the fact that your thinking outside the box

What about exploting the no swap paid or recieved loop hole using the old Islamic account scam ? That's probably still viable, but I doubt you'll find a reputable broker, so it's a risky proposition. Options perhaps ?, touch / no touch boundaries and the like.
I am not against making some profit, and I am not looking at the Islamic account scams and any other scams. What I am after is some simple fully automated system which either can break even or generate some small profits. I can design the system myself, however it will take around one month of efforts to do so. Why - because the system itself is only half of the solution I will also need to write a code to automate it, find a server to host, make sure breakdowns in connection are ironed out etc.
Therefore, given the efforts involved I was hoping that someone of the forum may have already done something similar which will save the efforts and hopefully can be used by other members as a starting point.
 

Dimtrad

Junior member
18 10
Dimtrad,

do you want a net zero strat to use to collect premiums via writing options?
Not sure if I understand your question - in short no, the Forex strategy has nothing to do with options. I just need to rack up trades and thought that Forex would be the easiest market to do so.
 

Lord Flasheart

Legendary member
9,796 975
over what timescale are you talking about and what drawdown will you accept. without knowing that how can we advise you?
does it have to be automated or can it be manual
 
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Dimtrad

Junior member
18 10
over what timescale are you talking about and what drawdown will you accept. without knowing that how can we advise you?
does it have to be automated or can it be manual
I will accept a 10% drawdown the timescale should allow for 1 trade a day may be every two days. The strategy preferably should be fully automated or at least generate trade signals.
 

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