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[counter_violent]

I can't believe that the eur has done nothing but rise all day and everyone is gambling for the big tumble that still has not come....

Theres no reason for it to tumble, the markets are clearly in a "risk on" mode.

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post3208

Ok here goes, if we assume that there are Two main market conditions, "risk on" and "risk off".

What we have since christmas, and it's speeding up, is a "risk on" type market condition. So this is to say, a flight to risk.

So in forex the Jpy has been weakening with no signs of a slowdown. Even the Usd has pummeled the Jpy.

Supporting evidence for this condition can also be seen in the stock index's, Dow S+P etc.

Also Europe is on the cusp of a decision concerning the Greek situation. To me the markets have already started pricing in a successful outcome ie, no default.
If a favorable decision is announced today or tomorrow...then the likes of Aud, Gbp, Eur, Chf and possibly even the Usd could fly North...big breakout style and the loser will continue to be the Jpy.

 

[ZEN archer]

Theres no reason for it to tumble, the markets are clearly in a "risk on" mode.

.

What about that $ printing guy?

 

[counter_violent]

What about that $ printing guy?

?

 

[VielGeld]

He probably means QE, but that's just more bullishness.

 

[ZEN archer]

?

I was thinking about possible QE3

 

[eabostwest]

Theres no reason for it to tumble, the markets are clearly in a "risk on" mode.

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post3208

Ok here goes, if we assume that there are Two main market conditions, "risk on" and "risk off".

What we have since christmas, and it's speeding up, is a "risk on" type market condition. So this is to say, a flight to risk.

So in forex the Jpy has been weakening with no signs of a slowdown. Even the Usd has pummeled the Jpy.

Supporting evidence for this condition can also be seen in the stock index's, Dow S+P etc.

Also Europe is on the cusp of a decision concerning the Greek situation. To me the markets have already started pricing in a successful outcome ie, no default.
If a favorable decision is announced today or tomorrow...then the likes of Aud, Gbp, Eur, Chf and possibly even the Usd could fly North...big breakout style and the loser will continue to be the Jpy.

wow....I like that bit of education....thanks CV

 

[counter_violent]

I was thinking about possible QE3

Ah I see. Well i'm not at all sure that QE3 will happen considering the better numbers out of the states. The mere threat of QE3 may be enough to boost confidence

 

[ZEN archer]

sell eur/usd 1.3460 stop 1.3477 target 13443

1 hour) What a pain - I've been in the trade for an hour and the range is less than 18 points.

And this is the biggest market in the world ?!

100min) Now it's been 100 minutes and the range is shrinking - how exciting!

2 hours) After more than 2 hours range of less than 18 points.

 

[be-positive]

long eur/usd 1.3466 trg +13 stop -9

 

[be-positive]

getting out at B/E to slow

 

[ZEN archer]

1 hour) What a pain - I've been in the trade for an hour and the range is less than 18 points.

And this is the biggest market in the world ?!

100min) Now it's been 100 minutes and the range is shrinking - how exciting!

2 hours) After more than 2 hours range of less than 18 points.

After 140 minutes of slow torture it hit the stop (there was even 1 point gap against me)

Buyers can't have enough of it - they love euros.

 

[VielGeld]

^ Market's been slow this week. It's like holiday trading all over again.

Hours for which Eur/Usd is likely to have a small range:

1) 6~7am EST (Lunch hours for London)

2) 12~1pm EST (London close + US lunch)

3) 4~6:30pm EST (US close)

Asian session gives it some life at 7pm, then carries it into London open.

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Flash, why not identify a way to get out when you notice a trade isn't working? I think it would substantially reduce your losers.

NO,Just to answer the point. I generally leave trades in as often I am selling from an area of resistance so therefore it is an area of resistance and no reason to get out.If anything,the longer it stays there, it shows at least I have got the right area and the 25 pip stops I employ are generally above the resistance so the trade is still valid. I do sometimes cut or reduce size if I have concerns about the price action,but mostly not. losing 25 pips or indeed a 200 pip drawdown is nothing in a long term plan as I have many winning 1/2 trades through the day and week and generally at least break even with those. What I have not had this week is a runner on the second 1/2 or when I have, I've not got any value for it so I have not made anything this week. If the market keeps rising, I am NEVER of the belief that it has to turn at some point,it doesn't.WE are miles off last years highs and the 2000 lows,so how can anyone say it has to turn.Everything you look at will look different in a different timescale. I try and avoid too much opinion of fundamentals and overall chart opinion, We are all naturally going to say its gone up and up,and must therefore come down. This market could just as easily go to 1.5 or 1.25, who cares,I really try to just look at the charts for my areas. My trades are taken from areas I believe to be of value. If you look at my charts where the ellipses are you will see that a lot of the time I am waiting for the market to reach that level before taking a trade in the opposite direction.Today was a poor example however and I had the feeling by the price action I should have got out.
My posts will be limited next week,but back to normal after that I hope.
Take care and have a good weekend

 

[ZEN archer]

^ Market's been slow this week. It's like holiday trading all over again.

Hours for which Eur/Usd is likely to have a small range:

1) 6~7am EST (Lunch hours for London)

2) 12~1pm EST (London close + US lunch)

3) 4~6:30pm EST (US close)

Asian session gives it some life at 7pm, then carries it into London open.

That's my impression VielGeld.

There were few days with untradable market (intra day) - like holidays.

 

[forexkunta]

Long Aud/Usd 1.0717 s/l 1.0655 target 1.0942ish

 

[forexkunta]

Oh ye of little faith!
Am I to assume that you don't think that the Aussie will rise that much? Or rise at all? Hmmm...... I guess that TIME will tell!!!!

Long Aud/Usd 1.0717 s/l 1.0655 target 1.0942ish[/QUOTE


Sorry to say no chance

 

[VielGeld]

Don't listen to that guy, lol. He's just peddling misfortune to the lowest bidder.

 

[forexkunta]

I am not worried. Since waves 1-4 have played out, then wave 5 is due to go to new highs in the next couple of days(week). Have to have faith in your method, or give your funds to charity, and disappear!!! LOL!

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Long Aud/Usd 1.0717 s/l 1.0655 target 1.0942ish[/QUOTE


Sorry to say no chance

your record is very poor in predictions,youve probably increased the chances of it working,might even have a go myself

 

[forexkunta]

Short Gbp/jpy 127.937 s/l 128.488 target 125.46