Best Thread Live Cable Trading

[fseitun]

Let me guess which 2 - 3 months !!!

Nobody has been able to confirm they are correct through backtesting. But I'm not sure how good the programming is behind the back test.

Best I did was download a years worth of data and rough check a couple of months by eye before I got bored..... and it was there or thereabouts.

But it requires too much capital for Joe Public IMHO.

Only really posted the totals again for those of us trading breakout strategies... just to give some hope !!

Backtesting always produces more pips than live trading. It's a classic.

I am not doubting there are some awesome traders out there, yet I highly doubt it there are many who can produce so many pips in one single year.

 

[Baruch]

Backtesting always produces more pips than live trading. It's a classic.

I am not doubting there are some awesome traders out there, yet I highly doubt it there are many who can produce so many pips in one single year.

Since we here in this thread some days ago started to follow the Hans123 system day after day it has lost more than 200 pips...

 

[Kaffee]

Backtesting always produces more pips than live trading. It's a classic.

I am not doubting there are some awesome traders out there, yet I highly doubt it there are many who can produce so many pips in one single year.

?? This is just a number crunching system. Nothing to do with the skills of the individual. It's not discretionary and to be honest it's not really techincal..... You have your entry price set by the market, your stops revolve around that and you watch your money go the drain.

Simple really !!

 

[zuke]

I wonder what the backtest results look like for trading only the am b/o?

 

[trendie]

I wonder what the backtest results look like for trading only the am b/o?

I tried to code it::
set ( 5-9am range +5 pips )
if b/o occurs: set SL to other end of range or 70 whichever is lesser.
if diff(price,b/o) > 40, then set SL = b/e;
if profit >= 120 then end.
if time = 23:00hrs then end.
if price < other range value then do above.
( dont reverse more than once )

add up all pips.
no matter how I coded it, I didnt get a positive net value. ( I think I posted that the value I got was -2,500 or so. data from: mid-Nov-2004 to mid-Jan-2006)

Because the value was so horrendously low, I didnt bother applying logic to PM range.
( there is NO WAY the afternoon range could overcome the losses of the morning range - I admit this is conjecture, but, come on, -2,500 )

 

[fxmarkets]

have you run a fade version test as well trendie, maybe run both at once one true to form and the other fades the signals see if you get anything, unless both stops get whipped....... perish the thought.

 

[Kaffee]

I tried to code it::
set ( 5-9am range +5 pips )
if b/o occurs: set SL to other end of range or 70 whichever is lesser.
if diff(price,b/o) > 40, then set SL = b/e;
if profit >= 120 then end.
if time = 23:00hrs then end.
if price < other range value then do above.
( dont reverse more than once )

add up all pips.
no matter how I coded it, I didnt get a positive net value. ( I think I posted that the value I got was -2,500 or so. data from: mid-Nov-2004 to mid-Jan )

Because the value was so horrendously low, I didnt bother applying logic to PM range.
( there is NO WAY the afternoon range could overcome the losses of the morning range - I admit this is conjecture, but, come on, -2,500 )

What was it from start of October to mid October ??... Here are Hans results:-

Results October 2005:


10/03 : -22 pips
10/04: -61 pips
10/05: -103 pips
10/06: +168 pips
10/07: +156 pips
10/10: +135 pips
10/11: +61 pips
10/12: +108 pips
10/13: +97 pips
10/14: +274 pips
10/17: +178 pips


Total: +991 pips

 

[trendie]

have you run a fade version test as well trendie, maybe run both at once one true to form and the other fades the signals see if you get anything, unless both stops get whipped....... perish the thought.

cant be bothered. maybe I will let the dust settle, and re-code it afresh.

a: bear in mind that markets are apt to change character, so an idea thats worked Feb-2005, may be subtly different from Feb-2006.

b: as Baruch has pointed out, would it make sense to avoid major news days

c: we need to be adaptive, and also consider rules to identify when the system has stopped working. ( in the way some use ADX to identify a trend, before trusting MA cross-over signals )

d: FetteredChino has done some work as to which parts of month are likely to be selling weeks, and which buying weeks. ( could this be used as a filter, and trade selectively )

e: triple-witching weeks. are these more volatile and directionless than other times ?

EDIT:
f: could be I have duff data. however, I did a few random dips per data-month and the data is consistent with MT-4 charts

 

[Kaffee]

cant be bothered. maybe I will let the dust settle, and re-code it afresh.

a: bear in mind that markets are apt to change character, so an idea thats worked Feb-2005, may be subtly different from Feb-2006.

b: as Baruch has pointed out, would it make sense to avoid major news days

c: we need to be adaptive, and also consider rules to identify when the system has stopped working. ( in the way some use ADX to identify a trend, before trusting MA cross-over signals )

d: FetteredChino has done some work as to which parts of month are likely to be selling weeks, and which buying weeks. ( could this be used as a filter, and trade selectively )

e: triple-witching weeks. are these more volatile and directionless than other times ?

EDIT:
f: could be I have duff data. however, I did a few random dips per data-month and the data is consistent with MT-4 charts

Triple Witching weeks ?? Are there key option expiry dates in the forex market ?

 

[Baruch]

I wonder what the backtest results look like for trading only the am b/o?

zuke & co.

I think we should follow both Big Ben and Hans' morning trades - let's us see which one is the best, and whether it is possible to combine them, or make something better. Maybe DC also could come with some fresh ideas?

 

[dc2000]

Looks like Im off traveling for a few days so I will catch ya all Monday, A pitty really after 2nd entry today Im expecting a nice move tomorrow.

 

[Baruch]

Looks like Im off traveling for a few days so I will catch ya all Monday, A pitty really after 2nd entry today Im expecting a nice move tomorrow.

Have a nice trip, DC. Pity that you miss NFP tomorrow...

 

[coolTrader]

GM morning all. ECB interest rates decision today but not before UK PMI and EUR PPI. EUR has a history fo going down when Trichet speaks. And Cable has a way of tagging along. Today may be different. Who knows happy trading.

 

[dc2000]

mrng chaps
He says Blurry eyed
I get up early for an entry and the thing makes me wait until 8:45

 

[mark twain uk]

dc,

you were supposed to be travelling and enjoying your holiday, I trust you have an open position that needs TLC

 

[Baruch]

mrng chaps
He says Blurry eyed

What happened, DC? Why are you not in Monte Carlo or San Remo? :cheesy:

 

[dc2000]

Hi Chaps no position at mo I was looking to get a price before I leave at 9:30

Nothing quite so glamerous Baruch Im going to freeze my nuts off in Paris

 

[Baruch]

GM morning all. ECB interest rates decision today but not before UK PMI and EUR PPI. EUR has a history fo going down when Trichet speaks. And Cable has a way of tagging along. Today may be different. Who knows happy trading.

I think the market expect some hawkish comments from Trichet this time. But on the other hand, the market also expect a very strong NFP number tomorrow.

 

[Baruch]

Hi Chaps no position at mo I was looking to get a price before I leave at 9:30

Nothing quite so glamerous Baruch Im going to freeze my nuts off in Paris

Have a nice trip to Paris, DC. And don't eat too many frogs... :cheesy:

 

[zuke]

Morning All, I am SHORT 736 Stop 766 looking for a first target of 30 pips..but ultimately I think this could be worth 100 pips.

EDIT: I will probably close this trade prior to the 9.30 and 10 am news before looking for a re-entry, however..I strongly believe today will be a "down" day.