out of curiosity as well, what is like the 3 main microeconomics indicators, i know they focus on firms, families, in general. am i right in thinking, changes at microeconomics would be seen first, if the economy was about to head downwards into the ground, before macro?
There's really no such thing as a "release of microeconomic indicators". A microeconomic indicator is smth like whether you personally got a raise this year or not. By definition, anything that's aggregated and released centrally (by the government or a private statistical agency) is a macroeconomic indicator.
thanks guys, appreciate the advice. i figured with the microeconomics, i thought it was a way of following how family spending, company spending was going in that economy.
i'll do a bit more reading on it i think you guys got good articles to understand how the economy works ?
i'm pretty sure learning economics is a long term thing, but i think it would definately benefit my trading!
These are actually difficult questions you're asking here... The first signs to appear are usually ignored, precisely because they appear in relatively obscure indicators. For example, in the case of US, for early warning signs, I like to watch temporary employment, 'cause it's normally the first mover. Generally, broad unemployment is a lagging indicator of an economy's performance. GDP is definitely lagging, since, by definition, it's backward-looking. A category of econ releases that, on balance, leads is the business activity surveys, like PMI and ISM headline indices and their components.
that definately helps mart. thank you. i've drawn the business cycle. i'm strating to label on it what increases and decreases during the contraction and expansion for e.g. interest rates, CPI etc.
i found something interesting though, someone matching the sectors up on which ones fall and rise during these periods. for e.g. 1 was that transportation increases first from the trough part of the business cycle, then TECHNLOGY etc. hold on ill give you the link http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3618.html
i dont know how accurate it actually is as i would like some feedback on the idea.
i know i'm full of questions atm but i recently learnt about the yield curve and it was said it has high accuracy predicting recessions. whats your opinion on this ?
Yes, I have heard that there are effects like that, where transportation revenues lead recoveries, etc. I am not a specialist on these things, as these are not macroeconomic indicators per se. In general, there are true macro indicators that have to do with transportation and trade, but I don't think you should assume that they always work the same way. None of these things are easy and they don't always behave.