Libya

[Masquerade]

So Libya is on now. We're going to give the people democracy and liberate them. Of course Libya has some of the highest oil reserves in africa (but we're not after that of course, we're giving them freedom.)

So the real important thing: How are we going to make money out of all this misery and mess? Obviously buying OIl is a very easy play. But how will this impact the currencies? Are we going to see the risk averse flight to safety of buying $? Are people going to buy into Euro like they did with Tunisia/Egypt etc.? Is the oil price price rising going to force $ weakness?

 

[Liquid validity]

As well as the above, wait for the indy E&P's to set up shop, who knows, as with Iraq, could be another splintering of internal borders, which will be ripe for small E&P's as the majors don't want to p!ss the larger state off.
Just be very wary of the one hole wonders though...sh1t or bust.

That of course is supposing there is an invasion, which of course is unlikely :whistling

 

[Masquerade]

One thing for sure is this won't be over quick. But i'm more interested in impacts to markets (although I imagine the majority on here would rather just analyse it by posting some lines/fibs/MAs and other mumbo jumbo rather than think about it.)

Will this start a risk averse move or is this unlikely if the Tunisia/Egypt/Bahrain is an example to go by?

 

[brettus]

So Libya is on now. We're going to give the people democracy and liberate them. Of course Libya has some of the highest oil reserves in africa (but we're not after that of course, we're giving them freedom.)

So the real important thing: How are we going to make money out of all this misery and mess? Obviously buying OIl is a very easy play. But how will this impact the currencies? Are we going to see the risk averse flight to safety of buying $? Are people going to buy into Euro like they did with Tunisia/Egypt etc.? Is the oil price price rising going to force $ weakness?

I don't think there is a correlation between rising oil price and dollar weakness. There might be a short term rise in oil price on monday. I see Britain, France and the US are bombing libya. Looks like we're going after the oil again boys!!

 

[neil]

I don't think there is a correlation between rising oil price and dollar weakness. There might be a short term rise in oil price on monday. I see Britain, France and the US are bombing libya. Looks like we're going after the oil again boys!!

Oh you cynics - don't you see that the West will eventually use oil profits to free the tortured and down trodden masses suffering under Mugabe's regime:whistling

 

[Liquid validity]

Interesting day tomorrow for sure.
Arab league seem to be reading the fine print and saying hang on a minute,
Russia piping up as they have various interests and assets at stake.
Another chapter in the East West energy war begins...
This may get rather fugly.

 

[DashRiprock]

I don't think its about the oil really, it's just coincidence that Libya has a lot of oil and so Gadaffi can afford to take the ****. well, until now.

It's politically motivated.

 

[arabianights]

So the real important thing: How are we going to make money out of all this misery and mess?

I suspect you won't.

I have a mate at a hedfe fund who covers libya, I'll see if I can get some research to post.

 

[Liquid validity]

http://www.oilandgaslibya.com/

Thats one hell of an incentive, especially as they are proven reserves.
Cheap tickets for this years conference, complete with complimentary tin hat and flak jacket...

 

[DashRiprock]

really, it's not about the oil. People who think that straight away already have their own tin (foil) hats.

 

[Liquid validity]

really, it's not about the oil. People who think that straight away already have their own tin (foil) hats.

Must be my tin foil hat inducing all this conspiracy theory talk, it even made me imagine that Iraq and Kurdistan are now full of international oilers and e&p's that were previously unwelcome

I agree its not the primary motive, that much is obvious...
Its an opportunistic by product that offsets the military cost and then some of dealing with an overdue problem.

 

[pboyles]

really, it's not about the oil. People who think that straight away already have their own tin (foil) hats.

You're right, the west will make nothing from this campaign. Look at the cost of Iraq in lives and money yet the main benefactors from the subsequent oil contracts were Russia, china, Malaysia, Norway Turkey etc, none of whom suffered so much as a scratch. The Arabs will accept our help when it suits but when the jobs done there will be no thanks and they'll sell to the highest bidder.

 

[Masquerade]

I suspect you won't.

I have a mate at a hedfe fund who covers libya, I'll see if I can get some research to post.

Maybe not, i'm not liking my chances atm. I did ok with the nuclear plant. But let's say I speculated on war breaking out this weekend and now i'm not so sure with my sizeable position if it's going to work out.

 

[arabianights]

have you done 10x normal size and it's 60 pence per point now?

 

[Masquerade]

I wish it was that. Let's try not stray from the major topic though. Word on the street is the arab league aren't happy with what's going on and more bombs are going to be dropped tonight.

 

[arabianights]

The money, mister masquerade, is going to be in the PH tournaments. Get on MSN and we can sign up for this evening's one

 

[Masquerade]

Can't, going out for dad's birthday in ~25 mins. Do you know if that jimbeaux is playing? I want to put a pwning on that yank. gl if you play.

 

[Splitlink]

I wish it was that. Let's try not stray from the major topic though. Word on the street is the arab league aren't happy with what's going on and more bombs are going to be dropped tonight.

I don't like the way this is going. Do they have a mandate to bomb anything other than airfields and control centres?

I'm not, personally, against this but, as PM, I would not have taken UK into it.

The US have not stuck their necks out on this one, Britain has.

 

[Masquerade]

It's something along the lines of enforce the NFZ and neutralise gaddafi's forces using whatever means necessary. It's pretty open to interpretation.

 

[chump]

Arab league couldn't find it's **** with the a bog roll the size of the Queen Mary. However, they've got to make the right kind of sounding noises whilst the people who got the nod sort this out.
Gadaffi howver,is a man of deep deep resilience so it should take about 2 seconds for him to get the message and ask for talks. He's as hard as a meringue

The main isssue is this isn't simply Libya. It's the larger what happens when you flood the market with so many dollars that the price of commodities rises beyond the ability of the common man to buy the neccessities of life. You could say and be right that this raises it's head first in countries where the hit is more meaningful because those basics constitute a larger part of disposable income.
However, it isn't that much of a jump these days to see how meaningful that issue is to other mature economies where disposable income is already under threat simply because debt and serving it is still so high.
This means there are opportunities short term to trade profit from spikes relating to uncertainty on commodities ,but medium term policy will make investing against such spikes more profitable.