Let's Talk Trading Set-Ups

[RachelFX]

Not that this is a call but if it's still around 90 when trading starts on Monday (or I've had enough coffee) and there is no clear bullish evidence to contrary, I'll go short with TP areas of 60, 40 and 05.....if the trend gathers a bit of steam I'd be looking at the .7375 pivot/support. The attached chart is .0005 box x 3 reversal but the pivot comes out more clearly on the .001 x 3.
View attachment 270463

In the interests of balance I'd very much like Dentist's opinion on this and also some other approaches - more Fibs anyone?...Ssam?

I still have a short bias, it has come back up to resistance of the neckline so will be interesting to see where market opens. Perhaps ideal would be a small gap down, close and then drop.

Excuse the messy chart , but with regards to fibonacci the right shoulder to bottom gives 0.38% confluence on the neckline, and the smaller fibonacci move shows a rejection wick through 50% almost touching the 61.8%.
I also like to track the 100 and 200 EMA which are both above and about to cross on the 4hr chart.

Keep me posted on whether you enter this trade and it meets your criteria to get in @cantagril

 

[tomorton]

That is a very different approach to how I trade, very interesting to see how this works. I assume you would determine which trades to look for each week by those with the greatest strength/weakness? How successful have you found this approach?

Well its 100% reliable. Until it fails.

Actually, it is just confirmation of what we would all see as a trend already. However, it does have two benefits in that it actually doesn't just instantly fail, the score tends to erode day by day rather than reverse. So when a currency, say AUD, is at 7-0 tonight, I would never see it drop to 0-7 tomorrow night: the 50EMA slopes don't react that fast. Except that maybe 1 or 2 of them would, so tomorrow the AUD strength has dropped to 6-1 or 5-2. This is useful because maybe I'm long in one of the AUD-based pairs that in isolation still looks strong, whereas the drop in strength score of a couple of other AUD pairs is maybe a warning to me that the situation is changing.

Also, its a good sense-check before entering a position. If AUD is scoring 7-0 or 6-1, I would have to be ultra-cautious taking an AUD short right now, no matter how bearish the individual chart looked.

 

[Madalyn]

I wanted to start this thread as a way of sharing ideas and thoughts on trade set-ups, or reviewing trades that have been taken.

Trading can be a solitary pursuit, so would love to interact with everyone and hear your thoughts about the current markets.
Personally I feel it can be really valuable to get insight and feedback from like minded traders, whether we agree or disagree about what we see on the charts!

I hope others may find this helpful too, and be great if anyone wishes to share their charts/set-ups ideas too.

Great idea for a thread

 

[cantagril]

Not that this is a call but if it's still around 90 when trading starts on Monday (or I've had enough coffee) and there is no clear bullish evidence to contrary, I'll go short with TP areas of 60, 40 and 05.....
View attachment 270463

Good morning Now short just 1L from 90. I'm not yet convinced that we're heading south in a meaningful way and would prefer another test to get me to enter with a full position - I'm a thirds fan when things look OK to me but am still a bit sceptical atm. The pullback on the 1H from 95 seems a tad too good to be true and I note from NVP's correlator that on the one hour CAD has a gentle upward bias whilst CHF seems basically sideways.

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

range ist too tight..IMHO
better eurgbp or usdcad

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

Minor oversold

USDCAD..bounced off horizontal supp

 

[cantagril]

Yes, I continuously log the strengths of the 8 major currencies. This is in a simplistic way but is worth the minimal effort. I just look at the slope of the 50EMA on all 7 charts for each of the 8 currencies, inverted if necessary - upwards is bullish of course, downwards is bearish. Of greatest interest would be a 7-0:0-7 match-up (or vice versa). Any long-term trades I take must not conflict with these ratios: it works.

Ganz interessant Whose charts are you using?

 

[cantagril]

Interesting observation with the Kelltner too, not something I am too familiar with.
.......................
It looks like it could be a relatively good strategy once you break out the bolly band, set stop loss outside kelltner channel and wait for pull back to ‘average’ price in center of bolly band.

You might be interested in this article on Keltner/Bollinger:

Keltner Channels [ChartSchool]

school.stockcharts.com

 

[Bloodhound]

Standard dull Monday but an easy 6.5R trade off the open this morning. Took ages to get to target though.

 

[cantagril]

Standard dull Monday but an easy 6.5R trade off the open this morning. Took ages to get to target though.

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Very nice! I'm lagging you by a mile. I got distracted on my CADCHF and didn't get it at the last restest so it headed south with just 1/3....and a thundering 10 pips in the money. I could possibly afford to buy you a latté

 

[RachelFX]

Well its 100% reliable. Until it fails.

Actually, it is just confirmation of what we would all see as a trend already. However, it does have two benefits in that it actually doesn't just instantly fail, the score tends to erode day by day rather than reverse. So when a currency, say AUD, is at 7-0 tonight, I would never see it drop to 0-7 tomorrow night: the 50EMA slopes don't react that fast. Except that maybe 1 or 2 of them would, so tomorrow the AUD strength has dropped to 6-1 or 5-2. This is useful because maybe I'm long in one of the AUD-based pairs that in isolation still looks strong, whereas the drop in strength score of a couple of other AUD pairs is maybe a warning to me that the situation is changing.

Also, its a good sense-check before entering a position. If AUD is scoring 7-0 or 6-1, I would have to be ultra-cautious taking an AUD short right now, no matter how bearish the individual chart looked.

Sounds like a strong way of providing a bias to each currency and applying this to pairs you see setting up.

Good morning Now short just 1L from 90. I'm not yet convinced that we're heading south in a meaningful way and would prefer another test to get me to enter with a full position - I'm a thirds fan when things look OK to me but am still a bit sceptical atm. The pullback on the 1H from 95 seems a tad too good to be true and I note from NVP's correlator that on the one hour CAD has a gentle upward bias whilst CHF seems basically sideways.
View attachment 270493

I am also in a small position, only 1% risk (usually 2%)
Flag formation has broken, potentially see a small push up after the break out before dropping imo.
I know what you mean about looking to good to be true mind, but trading what i see and manage the trade now as it plays out.

 

[RachelFX]

I agree. This is a great thread Rachael! I'll be back to post up some of my ideas later in the week

Good to hear, looking forward to seeing what you share

 

[cantagril]

Sounds like a strong way of providing a bias to each currency and applying this to pairs you see setting up.



I am also in a small position, only 1% risk (usually 2%)
Flag formation has broken, potentially see a small push up after the break out before dropping imo.
I know what you mean about looking to good to be true mind, but trading what i see and manage the trade now as it plays out.

This on CADCHF? If so, did you get in at 90 or get the extra 10 pips that I missed?

 

[RachelFX]

Standard dull Monday but an easy 6.5R trade off the open this morning. Took ages to get to target though.

View attachment 270517

View attachment 270518

I dont often find i take many trades on Mondays (although I have today) I hear a lot of pros and cons for whether trading Mondays is worthwhile, but clearly a great start to the week Nice work!

 

[Bloodhound]

I dont often find i take many trades on Mondays (although I have today) I hear a lot of pros and cons for whether trading Mondays is worthwhile, but clearly a great start to the week Nice work!

The challenge with Mondays is that they are very often quite thin but there have been a few things to trade today. Was looking to buy USDCAD as well but never gave me the entry I wanted although the H4 picture was pretty straight forward:

 

[RachelFX]

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I think USD CAD will react on the 1.32041, and potential to go back up to trend line or down to next support around 1.30550, a nice 130 ish pip move either way, bias is currently long for me until it breaks through the support level I am looking at.