JPY crosses technical overview
CHF and JPY crosses retraced on Tuesday Asia session and rebound on North America session. Some of the JPY crosses experience sharp turnarounds later Asia session.
• AUDJPY re-tested the fib level and rebound strongly.
• USDJPY and NZDJPY erased the falling trend line.
AUDJPY TECHNICAL VIEW
AUDJPY drifts as low as 85.69 nearly 1.50% down on Asia trade yesterday and re-tested the 100EMA again.
It has a parallel support finds between 85.65 and 85.45 it’s 50.0 fib levels. A breakdown below the 50.0 fib opens to 85 and 84.50 (earlier breakout level) coincides with 61.8%.
Alternatively, resistance seems at 87.60 and 88.00. Foot prints above 88.20 will refresh the extension towards 88.60 and 89.
The Near term trading range remains between 88.20 and 85.40. We are watching for 85 and 84.50 levels. Fails to breach the supply zone seems between 87.60-88.20 retrace initially to 86.
In the medium term perspective, the price action printed a top at 89.45 (50.0% 105.40-73.30 fall). Trading range remains between 90.00 and 83.70.
Data to watch:
Today on Asia trade, Aussie buildings approval
USDJPY TECHNICAL VIEW
• USDJPY retraced and rebound.
• On a verge of a trend line breakout.
• Probably made a double bottom.
We have previously advised, “Until the price close above 108.00, we believe the price action trying to form a base between 108.60 and 108.10 levels”. The price action made a low at 108.25 and changes the direction again.
Our near term view remains unchanged. Buying expected between 108.60 and 108.00. We are watching at 110.00 and 111.00. We repeatedly advise this trade and the price action reacted in line.
Yesterday's sell-off finally turn around and rebound to 20DMA, 109.90. It has a near term resistance seems between 109.90 and 110.00 above this opens to 111.00.
Near term potential support zone remains between 108.10 and 107.50. A move below 107.50 needed to retrace further to 106.50 (61.8% 98.93-118.65 rally) and 105.50. Intraday supports moved to 109.20 and 108.60.
Data to watch:
Wed, Jul 30
August ADP employment report:
Nomura: We expect ADP to report an increase of 200k in private payrolls for August.
2nd estimate Q2 GDP:
Nomura: In the second estimate of Q2 GDP, we expect the BEA to raise its estimate by 0.3pp from 2.9% q-o-q saar.
US nonfarm payroll is the central theme this week.
Barclays: August non-farm payrolls to rise 200k and the unemployment rate to decline to 4.2%.
Nomura: We expect another strong employment report next Friday with a forecasted 205k increase in nonfarm payroll employment, which would mark the third consecutive month of +200k growth.
NZDJPY TECHNICAL VIEW
• Retraced near 70.0% (Mid April-July rally).
• Interesting trend line in focus.
• Positive divergence visible.
NZDJPY fell as low as 1.30%, 78.27 but rebound strongly and closed with 0.45% gains. It was a wild journey to JPY crosses especially to AUDJPY and NZDJPY.
It has erased the descending trend line (below chart) resistances seem at 79.80, 80.20 and 80.60. The daily RSI making a higher low and break out visible on the daily chart. The daily oscillator remains bullish.
Potential support finds between 77.80 and 77.60. A move below 77.60 opens to 76.50, 76 and 75.60 it’s 61.8% fib (70-83.90 rally)
The near term bullish sign back to the table only after settles above 80.60. In this case 81, 81.50 and 82/82.20 possible.
View: We are waiting for 76 and 75.60 levels to open a buy trade in the medium term perspective.
What’s on today?
RBNZ Governor Wheeler due to deliver a speech titled “Reflections on the stewardship of the Reserve Bank”.
It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.
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