Key To Markets - Discussions

[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM Weekly: Week ahead Economic preview (Jan22-26)

The US political drama shifted the focus in Washington, the Senate failed to reach the votes required last Friday night. Over the weekend US government was closed and the USD remains weak against most-traded currencies in early Asia.

Week ahead:

Undoubtedly US Government shut down, grabs the center stage this week. Many countries will provide Jan 2018 PMI releases and 4Q GDP numbers of 2017.

In Asia-Pacific Bank of Japan policy meeting (Tue), National core CPI Y/Y and Tokyo core CPI y/y (Thu) due. NZD CPI due Wednesday.
In the EA, PMI readings (Wed) and ECB policy meeting (Thu) will drive the single currency.
UK labor data (Wed) and prelim GDP (q/q) due Friday.
In the US, 1st GDP estimate of Q4 due Friday.

Preview:

We expect the Bank of Japan to keep policy settings and guidance unchanged. Euro bulls are focusing on the upcoming ECB forward guidance changes.

Another round of NAFTA negotiations resumes this week, USDCAD and USDMXN will raise the volatility. The CAD expose additional risk from economic data releases. We forecast USDMXN offers upside risk in the near term.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM Weekly: EURUSD consolidating in a symmetrical triangle

FX participants now sets the focus to flash EZ PMI surveys and first ECB monetary policy meeting of 2018. We do not expect the ECB to change its tone this week. But we are closely watching to the press conference for changing the forward guidance and its pace.

Three of the Governing Council members expressed the risk around EUR elevation. We believe the change of the tone will take place in March and we also believe this week’s tone likely to be “well balanced to slightly dovish”. We also believe in 2018 the ECB policy likely to dominate the Fed.

Data review:

Annual inflation down to 1.4% in the euro area and down to 1.7% in the EU

Week ahead:

In the EA, PMI readings (Wed) and ECB policy meeting (Thu) will drive the single currency.

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW​

EURUSD has set up a solid base between 1.2200 and 1.2160. While holding 1.2160 the euro bulls try to re-visit last week’s high 1.2323-1.2350. Near term resistance zone seems between 1.2330-1.2360.

As shown on the below hourly chart the price action has been consolidating in a symmetrical triangle. A move below 1.2160 needed to forecast a near term retracement to 1.2100 and 1.2050.

As we pointed in our last week’s article, we still believe the consistent EURUSD bullish trend will continue further with a shallow dip.

At higher time frames while holding 1.1550 Nov 2017 low, the EURUSD will rally further ahead (below chart).

Weekly trading range remains between 1.20 and 1.2400.

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[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM Daily: USDJPY completed 100.0fe, a rebound expected

Bank of Japan maintained its current policy on Tuesday’s meeting. The decision was made by an 8-1 majority vote. Denying dovish tone JPY reacted positively to the BOJ policy statement and outlook report on Tuesday session. The BOJ raised the inflation expectations slightly led the JPY rally yesterday.

As we pointed in our earlier article/s we remain a USDJPY buyer.

The BOJ said it would maintain a negative interest rate of minus 0.1 percent to the short-term Policy-Rate. For the long-term interest rate (JGBs) remain at around zero percent.

In the quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity, the Bank will continue with “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control,” aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent, as long as it is necessary. The bank expects inflation to reach the 2 % target by fiscal 2019.

FX implication​

USDJPY: The Yen rose as high as 109.87 in Asia session, the highest level since Sep 2017. The 100.0fe finds at 109.90 below this 109.50 exists its 200EMA (weekly). Last three-month price action remains in a falling wedge, we believe in Q1 2018 the downtrend continues in a wedge.

Weekly trading range: 109.50-111.60 vs 109.50-112.40

Intraday: While holding 109.50 level intraday, we could expect a minor rebound to 110.50 in the European session.

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[KeyToMarketsUK]

• Spotted with an inverse H&S pattern
• A decent break and close above neckline

The price action printed a triple top between 17.45-17.37 finally gave a solid break and close above. On the daily and weekly charts, we spotted an inverse H&S pattern.

An inverse head and shoulder pattern are referred to a bullish reaction or reversal of the current downtrend. The triple top formation seems between mid-Oct 2017-mid Jan 2018 is the neckline. The given pattern strengthens if the price action produces a break and a close above.

As shown on the below chart the price gave a bullish break through the neckline on the daily chart and we believe weekly follows.

The pattern to aim at 18.50 if surpass the ten-month descending trendline. To limit the risk use sl at 16.74 Jan 23 low.

On the weekly chart, the price should step above the 200EA. Since Nov 2016 the price was rejected thrice at 200EA (below chart). In case if this attempt succeeds 19.50-20.00$ is the next destination, followed by 22.00$ our final target.

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[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM Daily: ECB review. Range remains between 1.2700-1.2160

At yesterday’s meeting, the ECB decided to leave interest rates and forward guidance unchanged. Even though Draghi tried to calm strong EUR, the EUR moved above 1.2500 handle for the first time since December 2014.

The Governing Council confirmed that the net asset purchases, at the new monthly pace of €30 billion, are intended to run until the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary.
The Governing Council also said, stand ready to increase the asset purchase programme (APP) in terms of size and/or duration.
The major currently trading at 1.2430 has made a Friday Asia session high at 1.2433 and hit lows at 1.2369.

At higher time frames, the 200MA (monthly) seem at 1.2530, yesterday’s high was 1.2537. We still believe the upside risk to the EURUSD remains in play this year.

For intraday, trend cast on US economic data. We have US 1st estimate of Q4 due today.

Resistance seems at 1.2460 and 1.2500. Support finds at 1.2360 and 1.2320/1.2300.

Ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting (Jan 31)range remains between 1.2700-1.2160.

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[KeyToMarketsUK]

The major consolidating in a tight range at a higher level in a busy week. Fed monetary policy meeting, EA 4Q GDP, EA CPI and US nonfarm payroll are the key risk events scheduled this week.

This week’s FOMC meeting (Wednesday) unlike to be a key risk event for the major. We expect the Fed to maintain policy settings. FX participants and analysts are focusing on March rate hike signals.
Last week, the ECB decided to leave interest rates and forward guidance unchanged. This week we are focusing on key data highlights.

Data Review:
· Eurozone Services PMI rose to 57.6 in January, from 56.6 in December
· Eurozone Manufacturing PMI drops to 59.6 in January, from 60.6 in December
· Germany Services PMI rose to 57.0 in January, from 55.8 in December
· Germany Manufacturing PMI drops to 61.2 in January, from 63.3
· France Services PMI rises to 59.3 in January, from 59.1 in December
· France Manufacturing PMI drops to 58.1 in January, from 58.8 in December
· The ECB decided to leave interest rates and forward guidance unchanged

Data Preview:
EA 4Q GDP figures are widely expected to be printed strong. We expect GDP growth to be around 0.6% on QoQ basis. We expect the Euro area inflation will come around 1.3%. We expect in December non-farm payrolls to rise 175k.

TECHNICAL VIEW​

Recent overbought conditions have shifted the price action to a consolidation phase within a tight range. Near-term, support finds between 1.2320-1.2300. A move below this need to extend the near-term retracement to 1.2225 (38.2 fib reaction, 1.1717-1.2537 rally) and 1.2170 Jan 18th low.

At higher time frames, the 200MA (monthly) seem at 1.2530, last week’s high was 1.2537. We still believe the upside risk to the EURUSD remains in play this year. Last week the price action come up against the 200MA (monthly) above this long-term descending trendline in scope.
The daily RSI propelling down and the oscillator turned bearish.

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[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM Daily: EURCHF buy trade

In the first month of 2018, the CHF strengthen more than a percent against euro.

The European cross pair manages to hold the parallel support 1.1540. The daily oscillator appears bottomed out and will turn to bullish.

While holding 1.1535 we expect a near-term bullish reaction to 1.1630 initially. A potential daily close above 1.1640 could extend the rebound phase to 1.1670 and 1.1700 it’s 20MA.

Before retracing to 1.1540 the cross breach the ascending wedge pattern. The current near-term bullish scenario is a part of the consolidation phase.
A move below the key support level could retrace further to 1.1390 Oct 02 low. Potential resistance seems between 1.1715-1.1735 as remains below the price action will produce further retracement to it’s 200MA.

View: sl 1.1535 targets 1.1630 and 1.1670/1.1700

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[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM Daily: Bitcoin experience more than 10% drop in price

Bitcoin (KTM: BTCUSD) drops below 9000$ mark per coin on Thursday session continued the South journey in the 2nd month as well. The most famous virtual currency lost more than half of its value from December 2017 high.

In 2017 the Bitcoin price spiked more than 1300% rapidly, but the current retracement behavior has led many traders to tag it a bubble.

Facebook created a new Ads policy that prohibits cryptocurrency ads. Rob Leathern, Product Management Director published an announcement in the facebook business office page, “We want people to continue to discover and learn about new products and services through Facebook ads without fear of scams or deception. That said, there are many companies who are advertising binary options, ICOs and cryptocurrencies that are not currently operating in good faith”.

CME has introduced bitcoin futures contracts. Terry Duffy, chief executive of CME Group, said CME has introduced bitcoin futures contracts, This is to ensure that the CME will not attract small-scale retail participants. CME’s bitcoin futures contracts are much larger than the Bitcoin Futures Contracts offered by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). “I believe this is our Shrewdness. ” reported by Wallstreet cn.

Terry also said, CME is not currently planning to expand other derivatives services in the field of digital cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin started reacting negatively after a speech from India’s finance minister Arun Jaitley. In his budget speech on Thursday, he said, “The government will do everything in its power to clamp down on the use of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in India” reported by Indiatimes.

Jaitely also said, “The government does not recognise cryptocurrency as legal tender or coin and will take all measures to eliminate the use of these cryptoassets in financing illegitimate activities or as part of the payments system,”.

Bloomberg reported, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission sent subpoenas on Dec. 6 to virtual-currency venue Bitfinex and Tether, a company that issues a widely traded coin and claims it’s pegged to the dollar. After the news hit the wires the biggest cryptocurrency dropped below 9,000$. The Bitcoin hasn’t closed below 10k$ mark since November 2017.

According to coinmarketcap, Bitcoin down more than 10% and Bitcoin cash down 15.00%. In our KTM terminal, the virtual currency made a low at 8885.00$. It bounced back a little and currently trading at 9320.00$ (AEDT 8.00AM, Friday) finally settles below the 10k$ mark. In our earlier articles, we repeatedly pointed the South direction.

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[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM Weekly: Underlying indicators are remaining bearish and the price will follow soo

Recent three weeks price action indicating a near-term sell-off could trigger in the coming days. Last week trading behaviour remains in sideways and tight trading range since Jan 25th high 70.78$. As we pointed in our last week’s weekly article, the underlying indicators remain bearish on the daily chart.

Weekly support finds at 66.00$ (50.0% fib reaction, 61.00-70.78 rally) below this could retrace further to 64.50 earlier breakout level. Noting that the 50MA finds at 66.00$. Short term basis, 61$ support is now key and should main the current uptrend.

Weekly range: 66.00-70.80$

On the four-hour chart, the price action indicating a bearish H&S pattern, but remains above the neckline. A move below the neckline needed to confirm the near-term retracement to 67.00$ and 66.00$. Below 66.90$ the degree of the retracement will accelerate to 50.0% and 61.8% fib reaction (61.00-70.80$ rally)

An alternative scenario, A daily close above 70.80$ could open to 71.50$ and 73.00$.

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[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM Daily: RBNZ preview. NZDUSD and AUDNZD are trading at key levels.

NZDUSD: The cross rose more than a percent having a high of 0.7350.

Data Review:

New Zealand 4Q unemployment rate fell to 4.5% a nine-year low from 4.6% 3Q, according to Stats NZ. Annual employment increased 3.7%. The labor participation rate was 71.0% down slightly from 71.1% 3Q. The labor cost index increased 1.8% vs1.9% in the year to 3Q 017.

RBNZ Preview:

Market participants shifts focus on tomorrow’s RBNZ Monetary policy meeting. The acting Governor Grant Spencer is presenting his last policy meeting, as his tenure will end on 26 March 2018. We believe the acting Governor will hold the interest rates at 1.75% and new clues will be available only from the incoming governor. Adrian Orr has been appointed as RBNZ Governor effective from March 27, whose first meeting is not until May.

We expect no change in the policy guidance chapter. In November MPS Spencer said “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly”.

In November Monetary Policy meeting, the Bank has considered four government policy initiatives. These policies have increased government spending; the Government’s housing programme; changes to requirements for work and study visas; and increases to the minimum wage.

The bank will provide a clear picture of these policies at its next meeting in February. The new government will provide a budget in May; we have much time to evaluate the government policy initiatives.

According to Phil Borkin at ANZ, “The RBNZ is not expecting to have to tighten until the second half of 2019”.

The exchange rate against USD has appreciated more than 6%. In November MPS the bank expressed “A high exchange rate typically leads to a widening in the current account deficit, as exports become less competitive and imports become more attractive”. We are focusing on the exchange rate comment at it’s February MPS (Feb 08 at 9.00AM NZDT).

The cross rose more than a percent having a high of 0.7350 on Tuesday session. Recent price action remains in a descending wedge pattern. While remaining below 0.7435 Sep 20, 2017, high the parallel resistance in the near-term trend appears bearish. The daily RSI is sloping and the oscillator remains bearish.

On the downside 38.2% fib reaction will be the next destination, in case of a wedge break down. Alternatively, breach of the parallel resistance targets at 0.7375-0.7400 (below chart).

The cross currency AUDNZD breaks down the multi-support level 1.0825-1.080 and retraced nearly 60.0% of the previous rally ( 1.0370-1.1290). It’s 61.85 fib reaction and 100MA (weekly) finds at 1.0720 below this 1.0700 exits it’s 20MA (monthly). Earlier bullish break through symmetrical triangle trendline finds at 1.0650.

In case of a rebound, 1.0825 and 1.0870 will be the immediate targets.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

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[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM Daily: Mega Thursday's GBPUSD pivotal at 1.3835-1.3800

The cable has fallen since the beginning of this week settled below 20MA. Recent retracement is 50.0% of the previous rally (1.3300-1.4344) indicating a near-term top has established.

Focus shifted to today’s Bank of England policy action and inflation report.
We believe the central bank unlikely to change any policy settings. Our key focus remains on bank’s assessment of the economy and its inflation report. This year’s rate hike factor depends on BREXIT. Traders need to focus on the degree of BoE’s hawkishness. We are also focusing on the vote split and we believe 7-2 will be neutral and 6-3 will be a hawkish tone. The vote-split and inflation report could drive the GBP today.

The Pound Sterling started 2018 on a strong note against the EUR and USD as well in Jan. The pound appreciation has started during the 2H of 2017 driven by the BoE 2018 rate hikes and a gradual easing of the Brexit risk.

FX overview​

GBPUSD: Established an important top between 1.3980 (Jan 30 low) and 1.4070 it’s 14MA. In the near-term, it has a meaningful support at Jan 06 low, we believe 1.3835 is the key for the deeper correction. The 38.2 fib reaction (1.3026-1.4344 rally) finds at 1.3835 and the 50.0% fib reaction (1.3300-1.4344 rally) finds at 1.3825. If we draw a line under the recent correction, between 1.3835-1.3800 the cable has a meaningful support fails to hold, targets at the 61.8 fib reaction (1.3300-1.4344 rally) 1.3700 and 1.3660 it’s 50MA coincides with Sep 20, 2017, high seems at 1.3655. Alternatively a solid daily close above 1.4080 targets at 1.4150. As shown in the below chart selling pressure looms between 1.3980/1.4000-1.4080.

In the medium-term forecast, meaningful support finds between 1.3550-1.3450. The daily RSI and oscillator favor bearish.

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[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM Daily: AUD FX overview

• AUDCAD offers high volatility today
• AUDJPY sit above big levels
• EURAUD and GBPAUD facing resistance at recent highs
• AUDUSD sits above support levels

AUDUSD placed a meaning top after last week’s CPI and China Manufacturing PMI data. From Jan high the cross has retraced more than 4% having a Thursday’s low at 0.7775. Immediate supports finds at 0.7770 its 100MA and 0.7750 its 200MA. The 50weekly MA finds at 0.7720 and additional support 0.7700 mark. A move below 0.7700 could retrace further to 0.7650 earlier breakout level (Dec 05 high).

Resistance seems at 0.7800 above this targets at 0.7840.

AUDNZD: The cross currency AUDNZD breaks down the multi-support level 1.0825-1.0840 and retraced nearly 60.0% of the previous rally ( 1.0370-1.1290). It’s 61.85 fib reaction and 100MA (weekly) finds at 1.0720 below this 1.0700 exits its 20MA (monthly). Earlier bullish break through symmetrical triangle trendline finds at 1.0650.

In case of a rebound, 1.0825 and 1.0870 will be the immediate targets. We remain a buyer in a dip between 1.0750-1.0650.

EURAUD: The cross held the parallel support available at 1.5630 and changed the direction to last week’s high. Parallel resistance seems at 1.5770 above this 1.5830 (Jan 2014 high) exists. Recent five trading sessions price movement indicating a top-in progress. A daily close below 1.5630 could strengthen the bearish view, target 1.5500 initially. Alternatively, a daily close above 1.5830 could open to 1.6000 and 1.6200 in the coming weeks.

GBPAUD: The BoE’s hawkish tone pushed the cross to Dec 2017 high seems at 1.7996 but failed to breach. Today in early Asia trade the cross is trading at 1.7906. The 100MA (Monthly) seems at 1.8040. The daily RSI breach needed (below chart) to forecast further bullish views.

Support finds at 1.7800, 1.7700 and 1.7610.

In the bullish scenario, 1.8130, 1.8270 and 1.8400 possible in the coming weeks. Alternatively if fails at supply zone 1.8040-1.7990 near-term retracement could be expected.

AUDCAD: The cross has erased the ascending trendline and retraced 50.0% of the recent rally (0.9578-1.000). The daily RSI and oscillator remain bearish. On Thursday session the cross down 0.25% having a session low at 0.9800. Today in early Asia session the price action extends the overnight losses down 0.15% but manage to hold the parallel support finds at 0.9785 (Nov 30 high).

Intraday pivotal finds at 0.9780 below this the 1st support find at 0.9740 it’s 61.8 fib reaction/0.9730 a parallel support and 2nd support at 0.9700 previous swings low.

Additional support finds at 0.9670 it’s 80.0 fib reaction coincides with the Sep 06 low.

The cross offers two risk events today, in Asia RBA monetary policy due and Canada jobs data (8.30am Canada local time).

AUDJPY: The risk-on mood encourages trades to shift to JPY to the weekend. The cross down 0.10% on early Asia trade having a low at 84.45. It has a parallel support finds at 84.34 Nov 27 low and 20MA (weekly) at 84.30 below this 83.60 exists its 100MA (weekly). In case of a parallel support break down and close below 84.30 could retrace further to 83.60 and 83.15 in the coming days.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM Weekly: Global economic calendar. US inflation could determine the market trend

• Australia labor data
• German prelim GDP and EA 4Q GDP
• UK, US CPI and Retail sales
• NZ inflation exceptions

Meetings of the central banks during the past week taken the central stage. The Reserve Bank of Australia again left the interest rates unchanged at 1.5% at its last week’s February meeting. The RBNZ left the cash rate unchanged at 1.75%. The MPC voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5% but the BoE hinted to hike the rates.

Last week’s global equity markets selloff supported the JPY and CHF. The cross USDJPY tends to volatile heavily, particularly to the drop-in equities. In the week ahead increase in risk aversion could drag the cross to 2017 low 107.30.

RISK EVENTS:

The UK and US have a busy economic data calendar in the week ahead. UK and US CPI, UK PPI and Retail sales are the key risk events. A higher than expected US inflation number (Wed) will rise the March Fed rate hike bets. Eurostat will publish EA 4Q GDP (Wed).

Chart of the week: USDJPY

The major tends to volatile heavily, particularly to the drop-in equities. Last week the price action managed to hold the 108.00 mark and quickly rebounding to 108.80, however, the decline from Nov 2017 looks increasingly impulsive. A move below 108.00 could retrace further to Sep, 2017 low 107.30 below this the 61.8 fib reaction (98.90-1118.66 rally) exists at 106.50.

Any pullbacks could face resistance between 109.30-109.70 its 20MA. The bulls must settle above 110.30 in order to rally further. The daily oscillator remains bullish.

Weekly range: 106.50-110.80

Also read Bitcoin technical view on our KTM blog.
It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM Daily: A lower high needed to forecast further EURUSD retracement

A quiet week flows in EZ. Last week’s equity selloff has changed the EURUSD positioning structure.
As 2018 unfolds the euro lovers rushed to buy the common. We believe the story likely to continue this year as well, in addition to that euro not yet fully priced for ECB.

Data review:​

EZ January services PMI registered 58.0 from 57.6 in December, 12 years high
Germany January services PMI registered 57.3 from 57.0 in December, highest in nearly seven years

Data Preview:​

This week’s low impact economic data likely to provide a little director to the euro. US inflation could determine the market trend. In case of the DXY comeback would be clearly a near-term weakness in the major.

TECHNICAL VIEW​

The major, finally pause another innings last for three consecutive months or seven weeks in a row facing resistance at 100MA (month). At higher time frames, the 200MA seems at 1.2530, Jan high was 1.2537.

The RSI has been propelling down and the oscillator again turned bearish. The ABC corrective phase 161.8 Fe finds at 1.2190 manage to hold past two days.

Weekly potential support remains at 1.2160-1.2140 and 1.2080

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM FX Daily: USDJPY and USDCHF technical overview and trading plan

USDJPY: The major fell over a percent having a low at 107.40 but manage to hold the Sep 2017 low 107.30. The dollar weakness and the news from Japan hit the price hard.

Bloomberg reported, “The Bank of Japan looks set to stay the course for now, with Haruhiko Kuroda at the helm for another term”.

Today’s pivotal finds at 107.30.

Any pullbacks could face resistance from 109.00-109.30 its 20MA. The bulls must settle above 110.30 in order to perform a rally.

USDCHF: Before retracing to sub-0.9300 levels the other week, the cross has confirmed a top at 0.9430-0.9440 (below chart).

Intraday range remains between 0.9240-0.9440, price trading at the middle of the range.

Medium-term pivotal finds at 0.9240 a break below could open to 0.9200 and 0.9170. A further deep cut could be expected if 0.9170 taken off, in this case, 0.9100 will be the next destination.

On the medium term basis, dip buying favors the trend. Buying between 0.9130-0.9070 sl below 0.9000 target 0.9400.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

Have a question? Let us help!

A KTM Analyst is ready to assist you, click on the comment section below​

 

[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM Daily: AUD FX overview post labor data

The Aussie dollar fell 35 pips sharply after the January labor force data hit the wires.

In January employment increased by 16,000 from 34,700 in December. The cross has re-tested 0.7900 post the data it’s 38.2 fib reaction (0.8135-0.7758 retracement).

The unemployment rate decreased by 0.01% points to 5.5%. The labor participation rates decreased by 0.1% to 65.6.

After the stronger than expected US inflation data overnight the dollar rebound and retraced. This supported the cross rally more than a percent.

AUDUSD: Intraday range remains between 0.7900 and 0.7960 breach targets at 0.8000 and 0.8030.

AUDNZD: The cross currency breaks down the multi-support level 1.0825-1.0840 and retraced nearly 60.0% of the previous rally (1.0370-1.1290). It’s 61.85 fib reaction and 100MA (weekly) finds at 1.0715 below this 1.0700 exits its 20MA (monthly). Earlier bullish break through symmetrical triangle trendline finds at 1.0650.

EURAUD: The cross has been failing to close above Dec 2017. Past eight sessions price action locked in a tight range 1.5800-1.5600. Though the price spikes through the range failed to close above. The daily RSI and the oscillator (RVI) are showing bearish signals.

A daily close below 1.5630/1.5600 could strengthen the bearish view, target 1.5500 initially. Alternatively, a daily close above 1.5830 could open to 1.6000 and 1.6200

AUDJPY: The cross has retraced 80.0 of the previous rally (81.50-90.30). The daily RSI nearly oversold lies at 31. In our last week’s article, we forecast for “83.60 and 83.15” the cross having a low at 83.30 and currently trading at 84.30.

We believe in case of any further retracement below 83.00 could shift the RSI and Oscillator to oversold zone.

View: Buy at 82.00 sl below 81.50 target 84.00.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM Daily: EURJPY and Bitcoin technical overview

Trade: Buy the EURJPY with a take profit at 134.30 and a stop loss below 131.50 on an hourly closing basis.

Grounds:

• On the hourly chart the cross has spotted with an inverse H&S pattern
• A neckline breakout needed to strengthen this view
• On the H4 chart, the studies are tracing out a bullish skin
• Therefore, the EURJPY will outperform intraday in case of a neckline breakout

Medium term: We still waiting for a better risk-reward ratio. Potential support base finds between 132.00-131.00.

Bitcoin technical overview​

The digital currency Bitcoin seem poised to take off day. From early Feb low’s the most famous Cryptocurrency rebounds nearly 70.0% in seven sessions out of eight.

The daily RSI and oscillator remain bullish and the price closed above 100MAs as well. Finally, the price of Bitcoin climbs above 10K$ level for the first time in two weeks’ time frame.

View: We believe in the near term the rally might pause between 11,900$-12,750$ (above chart).

We are glad to announce the introduction of 6 new Cryptocurrencies, which are now available in your Metatrader 4: Bitcoin (BTCUSD, BTCEUR), Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, Dashcoin, Bitcoin Cash.


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[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM FX Weekly: Global economic calendar. PMI readings and RBA, FOMC, and ECB minutes

• RBA Minutes of February 2018 Monetary Policy Meeting
• Retail sales for the Canada and NZ
• Flash PMI for the EA, Japan and US
• UK average weekly earnings, inflation forecast and GDP q/q 2nd release

In the US there is a public holiday on Monday, it might be a slow start for the week.

Wednesday bucket: Undoubtedly Markit PMI readings for the EA (second tier) and the US are the key data events ahead. RBA, FOMC, and ECB minutes are driving the weekly trends.

The EA manufacturing and service PMI are due on Wednesday. We are particularly interested in the US, February service and manufacturing PMI data are due. UK December UK labor market report is the other risk event scheduled on Wednesday.

The FOMC minutes from the January meeting are due to release as well in Wednesday. The ECB minutes of January 2018 meeting will be released on Thursday. FX traders are looking hints for forward guidance.

Chart of the week:
EURUSD: Weekly range 1.2700-1.2165
The daily RSI propelling down and can observe a negative divergence (daily chart). Base support finds between 1.2200-1.2165. A daily close below could target at 1.2000. In case if the price action follows the blue pattern (option 2 on the below chart) we could forecast an inverse H&S pattern. In a bullish scenario, 1.2700 is an open target while holding 1.2165.

At higher time frames the major ahs spotted with a triple top.

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[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM Daily: Wednesday FX focus

The dollar index rebounded from three-year lows, extended the overnight rally for the third consecutive day. FX traders are waiting for FOMC meeting minutes. The USD continues to be in a down trend driven by multiple factors.

FX reactions: From last week’s low the USD (KTM: USDX) off nearly 1.30% whereas in the same period the USDCAD rose 1.65%, USDJPY rose 1.80% and USDCHF rose 2.0%. Within the emerging market currencies space USDTRY and USDZAR rose 2.00% each and USDHUF rose 2.15%. In Asian currencies CNH down 1.15% and SGD down over a percent against the USD.

In the major currencies basket, EURUSD down 1.90% and GBPUSD down over 1.50%. Crosses AUDUSD down nearly 1.5% and the NZDUSD down 1.35%.

The dollar index manages to hold the 88.00 support level again last week. Since the beginning of the year 2018, the dollar index locked in sideways between 88.00-90.42. In our earlier articles, we pointed that in Q1 the price will stabilize between around 88.00 levels.

Ahead of FOMC minutes support potential supports remains between 88.00 and 87.30.

What’s on today?

The EA manufacturing and service PMI are due on Wednesday. We are particularly interested in the US, February service and manufacturing PMI data are due. UK December UK labor market report is the other risk event scheduled on Wednesday.

The FOMC minutes from the January meeting are due to release as well.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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[KeyToMarketsUK]

KTM Daily: CAD Trades update. USDCAD and CADJPY met near term targets

CAD continues to underperform against the USD for the fourth consecutive day. The cross USDCAD snaps two-month, falling streak as the Bank of Canada hikes at a slower pace compared to Fed.

We pointed in our earlier article before Jan policy meeting “BoC neutral hike will cap further CAD gains”. In technical terms “above 1.2600 could open to 1.2660 and 1.2770 in the near term”. The given forecast nearly completed the near term target.

The cross spiked as high as 1.2754 on Thursday session extended the weekly gains to 1.88%.

From Jan lows the cross off nearly 4.35% (CAD performance chart) and has breach the nine-month descending trendline.

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If we shift the focus to the higher time frame (Weekly) the price gave a bullish break through the symmetrical triangle. The oscillator appears an inverse H&S pattern (below chart).

The parallel resistance seems at 1.2777 above this 1.2840 exists its 50MA (weekly). Over the medium term, the key resistance seems at 1.2920 previous swing high.

Our forecast over the medium term remains same “In the medium term, 1.29 and 1.2970 are achievable in case of a higher low pattern on the weekly chart. If the pattern evolved as we expected 1.3200 is the final target”.

The other cross CADJPY has retraced nearly 9.80% from Jan high’s and completed the KTM target 84.50.

Until March Boc and Fed meeting, e believe the USDCAD outperformance will continue.

What’s on today?

CPI data due. We believe the Jan Canada CPI will print above 0.4% on m/m basis.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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