Just who is the 3'O Clock hero?

[JonnyT]

JonnyT thats who...

Given all the flak have been given, I'm going to give you all something for free that should be worth 20 points per day on the Dow.

Mr Marcus has broached the subject about what happens at what times on the Dow and sugested this is important. It is.

Well 3'O Clock, more correctly 10am in the US gives a high probability scalping opportunity.

Simply use a 1 minute chart and look at the latest price action up to this time. It's a high probability that the market will turn around this time and give a 20 points plus trading opportunity.

I'm not giving you a system but rather food for thought, you should be able to consistently make money.

HTH

JonnyT

 

[TWI]

This is interesting as backtesting suggests that if you define the action before 1500hrs correctly you can actually take out consistent money. I found I could take 30 points. I was using a 5min chart and using previous 15 minutes to define what would constitute a counter directional trade. I also closed all open positions at end of day if they had not yet found 30 ticks.
Altogether very simple but I do not think I will bet the house on it just yet.

 

[bracke]

This is interesting as backtesting suggests that if you define the action before 1500hrs correctly you can actually take out consistent money. I found I could take 30 points. I was using a 5min chart and using previous 15 minutes to define what would constitute a counter directional trade. I also closed all open positions at end of day if they had not yet found 30 ticks.
Altogether very simple but I do not think I will bet the house on it just yet.

I think I know what your chart represents but I am not sure. Could you explain it please

What stoploss do you use ?

I don't think it worked today.

Regards

bracke

 

[JonnyT]

Yep,

Defining rules around a 3pm reversal is a valid strategy for the current market conditions.

Today was an easy 15 pointer, most days it is more.

I'm rather suprised no one else has passed a comment...

JonnyT

 

[Dave1971]

Yep,

Defining rules around a 3pm reversal is a valid strategy for the current market conditions.

Today was an easy 15 pointer, most days it is more.

I'm rather suprised no one else has passed a comment...

JonnyT

JT

How do you get 15points? The close of the 3pm bar was 10196 and the peak in the 3.40pm bar was 10213, thats only 14 points before spread. Or have I missed something, also how do you set a strategy for exits?

Thanks

Dave

 

[TWI]

Bracke,
I simply took JonnyT's idea and played around with a few mechanical rules to decide how I would define what was counter-trend at 1500hrs and how much I would try to take out. The graph represents the results.
Time is horizontal axis and Profit/Loss the Vertical. The flat horizontal lines along the equity curve indicate that time was passing with no signal generated hence a flat position. Anything vertical is indicating where I have a position. The BIG vertical spans are where I would likely be chewing off my finger nails as I did not utilise a stop, just a profit target or an exit on close.

 

[cj12]

Jonny it did not revers today,at 3.00 for 15 ticks, where did you get that from.it kept going down,the time we use is 3.04, and 2.52, although I dont personally trade it my self,

CJ

 

[JonnyT]

Low at 10:06 at 10190
High at 10:43 at 10210

Thats a 20 pip range folks.

Dow futures off course.

Remember I posted the idea, you look to enter a counter trend around 10:00 not on the nose.

Generally the turn around from the high/low is a few minutes after.

Mr Walker has generously posted some results using the precise time.

I would wager a few extra points a day could be massaged from his strategy using limit orders a few points from the market at this time.

JonnyT

 

[hampy]

Nice one JT, 2 points range on ES today too. I quick 1.5 pts should be a decent start to anyone's trading day if it can be done regularly.
Cheers, hampy

 

[bracke]

Bracke,
I simply took JonnyT's idea and played around with a few mechanical rules to decide how I would define what was counter-trend at 1500hrs and how much I would try to take out. The graph represents the results.
Time is horizontal axis and Profit/Loss the Vertical. The flat horizontal lines along the equity curve indicate that time was passing with no signal generated hence a flat position. Anything vertical is indicating where I have a position. The BIG vertical spans are where I would likely be chewing off my finger nails as I did not utilise a stop, just a profit target or an exit on close.

twalker

Thanks for your reply

Do you use indicators to decide counter trend, if so which ones do you find work best ?

How do you determine exit.

Do you trade this method using the daily cash

I do not like the sound of profit target or exit on close without a stop. Surely you must have some strategy to close the trade otherwise it could be very expensive eg yesterday.

Regards

bracke

 

[TWI]

I did not say I traded this, just took JonnyT's suggestion and played with it to see if something so simple could work. I use no indicators just look to see if last 15mins was net up or down by looking at relative closes of 5min bar and so take opposite signal at exactly 15:00 bar. Reason I have not introduced stop is because I have not had more time to look at it as also managing my book.
Yesterday the system I have did not take a signal because it obviously did not fulfil the criteria I gave it to determine direction in the 15mins leading up to 15:00. I will post code when I have a moment.

 

[bracke]

I did not say I traded this, just took JonnyT's suggestion and played with it to see if something so simple could work. I use no indicators just look to see if last 15mins was net up or down by looking at relative closes of 5min bar and so take opposite signal at exactly 15:00 bar. Reason I have not introduced stop is because I have not had more time to look at it as also managing my book.
Yesterday the system I have did not take a signal because it obviously did not fulfil the criteria I gave it to determine direction in the 15mins leading up to 15:00. I will post code when I have a moment.

twalker

Thanks for reply.

Will look forward to reading code.

Regards

bracke

 

[JumpOff]

Thanks for the tip JohhnyT. I was just about to post a question about which markets usually *start* to move or often have reversals in the time frame of 9am-noon central standard time here in the U.S. I've been paper trading the forex, and have 6-8 hours a day to devote to it, but those 6 - 8 hours are not all contiguous and client obligations and meetings usually prevent from getting to my trading desk before 8:30 a.m. central time. (The forex move is well underway by that time, and I always feel like I am behind the curve and chasing a runaway train..)

I'll definitely look into the action pattern on the dow -and I'll be looking to see if the same action spills over into the S&P too.

JO

 

[rav700]

This is a very good tip and I do rate it but consistency...is something else..
Thanks for the tip....
This is a very good tip for something like betonmarkets