'Jumpy' pattern

[bedsit]

What do you think about these 'jumpy' patterns? For whatever reason (algos etc.) it seems they are more common nowadays (FX intraday moves). So far as I can see the old nice smooth moves up and down don't happen that often.

Well I’ve managed to trade few of them nicely - it’s a quick profit and sometimes a quick loss, but risk/reward is favourable. I check 15 min charts and if there are 1 or 2 long candles with a small triangle at the top (or bottom) I place a short order below the lowest part of the triangle or a long order above the highest part - this is more conservative as opposed to getting in at the break of the triangle line. Stop should be on the opposite side of the triangle top (or bottom). Target: most likely the length of the long candle (candles) just before the triangle.

Does anybody else trade this small triangles (pennants) in a similar way?

 

[wackypete2]

I agree about seeing this pattern more and more these days. Mostly this happens as a reaction to a release of data, a "not normal" news event, or a knucklehead politician making some statement. I use a similar triangle set up that you describe but generally I only take the trade going in the same direction as the trend BEFORE the spike candle(s). If the trend was very strong then sometimes I'll try to pick a top or bottom with a small stop.

Peter

 

[forker]

There is an overall consolidation which is visible on the larger time frames. Sometimes this type of Market can last a few months in fx. It's a case of having to adapt with strategies that work in this environment instead of the ones that work in a running market

 

[Black Swan]

Good points guys, fwiw my 2-4 hr strat has been battered over the past few weeks, normally I'd simply have a cup of tea, smile, shrug shoulders, lick wounds and wait for the next entry in opposite direction..but due to what's happening out there over the past 2-3 weeks it's been a mess. On reflection I should have been only aiming for 50 pips per trade rather than 100-150 per trade, but you know how things look in that rear view mirror.

Have to be a Miracle to even break even this month now..only wanted a quiet trading life, trading one pair.. been hard to resist temptation to drop down to a lower tf and go at it..

Come to think of it, I don't think August has ever been good for me..normally I'm away two weeks of it each year..

 

[Hotch]

I've found IBs, with the bar before being a new high/new lows to be quite good for a reversal, helps if the bar is big, so I'm guessing that's pretty much the same thing as your pennant, just a higher tf. So yeah, been quite good.

 

[bedsit]

I agree about seeing this pattern more and more these days. Mostly this happens as a reaction to a release of data, a "not normal" news event, or a knucklehead politician making some statement. I use a similar triangle set up that you describe but generally I only take the trade going in the same direction as the trend BEFORE the spike candle(s). If the trend was very strong then sometimes I'll try to pick a top or bottom with a small stop.

Peter

I don't have a strong opinion about the direction - maybe slightly biased towards the opposite from the long candle move.

There is an overall consolidation which is visible on the larger time frames. Sometimes this type of Market can last a few months in fx. It's a case of having to adapt with strategies that work in this environment instead of the ones that work in a running market

Agree - I keep observing the market all the time and try to adjust my strategies accordingly.

Good points guys, fwiw my 2-4 hr strat has been battered over the past few weeks, normally I'd simply have a cup of tea, smile, shrug shoulders, lick wounds and wait for the next entry in opposite direction..but due to what's happening out there over the past 2-3 weeks it's been a mess. On reflection I should have been only aiming for 50 pips per trade rather than 100-150 per trade, but you know how things look in that rear view mirror.

Have to be a Miracle to even break even this month now..only wanted a quiet trading life, trading one pair.. been hard to resist temptation to drop down to a lower tf and go at it..

Come to think of it, I don't think August has ever been good for me..normally I'm away two weeks of it each year..

I think everybody has some tough trading periods from time to time - it's important to stay in control. I find it beneficial to stay out of it for some time if it doesn't work - I have good experience with starting afresh.

I've found IBs, with the bar before being a new high/new lows to be quite good for a reversal, helps if the bar is big, so I'm guessing that's pretty much the same thing as your pennant, just a higher tf. So yeah, been quite good.

I'm aware of IBs - only thing I've never studied them thoroughly. I like to know precisely stop and target before the entry and that pennant set ups seem quite good in that respect. I also like risk/reward - for long candles and small triangles reward can run up to 3 or more times risk (amount risked). So I don't have to get it right every time.

 

[Black Swan]

Bedsit, tbh I'm cool in the gang with it.. considering how much the market has been spazzing off a 4-5% loss is fook all. My mind's not been on the job either, taken on a brilliant new industry freelance job so they have to come first..

 

[wackypete2]

Come to think of it, I don't think August has ever been good for me..normally I'm away two weeks of it each year..

Same here. For as many years as I have been doing this July and August and the last 2 weeks in December have never been good to me. Maybe a trade here and there but otherwise I stopped swimming upstream a long time ago. The unforeseen benefit is the much needed break from it all. It does a mind good!

Peter

 

[Black Swan]

Same here. For as many years as I have been doing this July and August and the last 2 weeks in December have never been good to me. Maybe a trade here and there but otherwise I stopped swimming upstream a long time ago. The unforeseen benefit is the much needed break from it all. It does a mind good!

Peter

you're spot on Pete, normally I'd miss 2-3 weeks of August due to going away with kids and wife, but we just haven't managed to fit it in this year, they got away, but without me..

I think the diff this year over this holiday period was the huge correction which many had anticipated but for Sept/Oct not July/Aug.. probably been great trading currencies off 5-15 min TFs on 1:1 20-30 pip 'fire and forgets'..I just can't do the screen watch..

As for the mind issues yep, it is such an intense business..bloody addictive too..but that's why we love/hate it in equal measures eh?

 

[bedsit]

Another one?

 

[the hare]

Good points guys, fwiw my 2-4 hr strat has been battered over the past few weeks...

EURUSD by any chance ?

 

[Black Swan]

EURUSD by any chance ?

No flies on you eh mate..

 

[bedsit]

Another one?

Today I was following eu only. The first 'jumpy' I traded - got 1/2 out at the first candle's length and the rest was waiting for previous 2 candles combined, but it never got there and was stopped at b/e. Late one I didn't trade because of the time (too late for me) and it was not a triangle - it was an inside candle. It may work somehow - if we apply similar style - stop above the high of the inside candle and target = lenght of the long candle?

 

[bedsit]

it is such an intense business..bloody addictive too..but that's why we love/hate it in equal measures eh?

It's funny - just read about the guy who is very successful - mostly made it by providing services to other traders, but he wouldn't trade? And he has all the info available.

A bit discouraging for aspiring traders?

 

[bedsit]

No 'jumpy' set ups at the moment - price action looks a bit nervous.