it's dangerous to listen to people on T2W

squall321

Well-known member
488 106
Dunning-Kruger effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Dunning-Kruger effect is an example of cognitive bias in which "...people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it"[1].

They therefore suffer an illusory superiority, rating their own ability as above average. This leads to a perverse result where people with less competence will rate their ability more highly than people with relatively more competence.

It also explains why competence may weaken the projection of confidence because competent individuals falsely assume others are of equivalent understanding "Thus, the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others." [1].
in other words

the more you think you know, the less you actually know :LOL:
 

shadowninja

Legendary member
5,524 643
This would explain why usually newbies make an absolute fortune at trading then they start reading and talking to others, and suddenly they take the mother of all losses, which is more or less at the same time as their increase in knowledge, more or less. Probably. Give or take a few. All figures estimates. Your investment may go down as well as up. See our website for full terms and conditions. Only applies to households in the South East England area. Applicable for applicants under 65. Always dilute with water. May contain a source of nuts. Never mix detergents.
 
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tenbobtrader

Guest
450 140
"This would explain why usually newbies make an absolute fortune at trading then they start reading and talking to others, and suddenly they take the mother of all losses, which is more or less at the same time as their increase in knowledge"

thats a very good point you have brought up shadowninja

conclusion = this site contains no knowledge

the newbie had all the knowledge they required at the start, they came looking for a bit more when they ran their 1st loser !

they learn how to become full time losers - and join the 90% club
 

BSD

Veteren member
3,819 984
Nah Ninja-san, we all know there-is-the-one-who-cannot-be-named who likes reminding us of his singular elevated status as sole profitable trader amongst the otherwise penniless paupers that make up the remainder of the membership here per him.

:LOL::LOL::LOL:
 

tenbobtrader

Guest
450 140
Are you saying there are no profitable traders on this site?

No I did not say that shadowninja

unless T2W is a magnet for every winning trader

you take the 90% fail rate is accurate or something like

guess that leaves 10 % could be profitable, perhaps a bit more if answering over a short period (short period 3-6 months out to a yr)

reading the boards I would guess at less than 10 %

consistant profitable for 3 + yrs with enough size to make more than UK average wages - who make money from trading alone

not that many imho a single fig % would be my guess


Andy
 
Last edited:

0007

Senior member
2,327 624
Quote:
The Dunning-Kruger effect is an example of cognitive bias in which "...people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it"[1].

They therefore suffer an illusory superiority, rating their own ability as above average. This leads to a perverse result where people with less competence will rate their ability more highly than people with relatively more competence.

It also explains why competence may weaken the projection of confidence because competent individuals falsely assume others are of equivalent understanding "Thus, the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others."


"in other words the more you think you know, the less you actually know"
Unquote


I see it slightly differently: the more you know, the more you realise how little you know - even though you may know considerably more than the novice.

"This leads to a perverse result where people with less competence will rate their ability more highly than people with relatively more competence. " - agree with that. Those sort of people can be extremely dangerous. In another life we used to call them "Gobby little bast*rds"

Learning to make your own judgements despite the mob's prejudices is one of life's skills that can serve you well in trading.
 
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Trader333

Moderator
8,510 883
in other words the more you think you know, the less you actually know
Taking this a step further is it then possible that you can be thinking so much that you actually end up knowing everything about nothing :)


Paul
 
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BSD

Veteren member
3,819 984
I think a clear tell-tale sign of conversing with someone who isn't really the brightest light in the room is their non-existent mental flexibility, their inability to actually think outside of the box they've lived in all their lives with all their preconceptions and fixed beliefs, in other words people who have the mental elasticity of those unfortunately suffering from rigor mortis.

Funnily enough one gets that amongst traders a lot.

"My method is the only method to make money."

"Your method can never work"


;)

Is it really a wonder that most fail, or that even amongst those who are successful, they then pretty rapidly reach a glass ceiling beyond which they never manage to break through ?

Because they cannot adapt ?

Cannot learn to to make their method compoundable ?

Have a desire to overcomplicate, forgetting that all things being equal simple is best as Occam so rightly observed ?

Etc.

I honestly believe that a prejudiced, unbendable and uncurious mind - which is invariably the result of a weak and insecure ego that needs to be right more than it wants to have success - is the root cause for most outright failure or underperformance.

See the world as it is, not as you want it to be.
 

BSD

Veteren member
3,819 984
To the ego, the present moment hardly exists. Only past and future are considered important. This total reversal of the truth accounts for the fact that in the ego mode the mind is so dysfunctional. It is always concerned with keeping the past alive, because without it - who are you? It constantly projects itself into the future to ensure its continued survival and to seek some kind of fulfillment or release there. It says 'One day, when this, that or the other happens, I am going to be okay, happy, at peace'. Even when the ego seems to be concerned with the present, it is not the present that it sees: It misperceives it completely because it looks at it through the eyes of the past. Or it reduces the present to a means to an end, an end that always lies in the mind-projected future. Observe your mind and you'll see that this is how it works.

The present moment holds the key to liberation. But you cannot find the present moment as long as you ARE your mind"

Eckhart Tolle
SO true !

Great stuff, Andy !

:)
 
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