It is all a Fugazsy

[Fugazsy]

EJ 1H

Prices broke the trend line of the major channel in a tight channel (1), which is also a spike.

Pulled back in two legs (first leg end with the bull bar after the doji bar), which also broke another channel (2).

Bar A is a fail BO ( of the channel 2) and a BO Pullback (of the upper trend line of the major channel).

Now a possible expanding channel.

With a larger channels is best to enter with a reversal patter, in a very tight channel or spikes is best to enter with limit orders at the touch of the channel having a SL below the previous swing low(for long), if RR makes sense.

This is a spike, if you buy with a limit order at 1, your SL should be below 2.

Disregard taking profit based on great RR (1:2 or 1:3), that is BS literature.

Take what is given but letting run his course is also important, personally I take profit at the end of NA close, some time is less than my risk, often is equal to my risk and a few times is 6-7 times my risk.

 

[Fugazsy]

This is a spike, if you buy with a limit order at 1, your SL should be below 2.

Disregard taking profit based on great RR (1:2 or 1:3), that is BS literature.

Take what is given but letting run his course is also important, personally I take profit at the end of NA close, some time is less than my risk, often is equal to my risk and a few times is 6-7 times my risk.

Why not going short at the major bear channel line around 2?

Look at the bar before the down Tline, they are too strong, not any bear bars and there is not a reversal pattern....

 

[Fugazsy]

spike and flag, went short 1 pip below the arrow bar, +41 pips

 

[Fugazsy]

I did not take this trade.

Usually (but not always) after a spike traders will try to reenter after in between 1/3 to 2/3 pull back, here prices reversed with one of my favorite three reversal bar which I call "the Fugs low": a new low, a lower low and a new high based on close, a buy stop order is place above the high of the third bar. (reverse for short)

I did not take this trade because the pullback was too strong for my taste but apparently Japan said something and that is why is best to keep your hears on the ground (which I did not) during the day to embrace sentiments because fundamentals moves market....in this case what they said was in accordance in the direction of least resistance.

 

[Fugazsy]

Now I clean up my chart for the day, as you can see prices stopped to the pip at the upper channel line, we have a new spike into a bull channel....

Also note this bull channel is a bear flag and is in the 2/3 of the bear trend......

Will I short this? No now.

But if I see a nice pull back and a test of the new high with a strong reversal pattern I would because I will be thinking I am entering a reversal in the direction of least resistance...

Enough BS for today....

 

[Fugazsy]

market very slow today but euro is gently pushing down.....This week maybe not easy in currencies....many news.....maybe fading them...

Au

a wedge bear flag pullback in a bear trend.

I have added two indis, macd with a zero line possible rejection and CCI in OB zone, bearish divergence and 100 level cross.

 

[Fugazsy]

posted this on another thread:

TA has many facets which can be overwhelming and confusing but a street smart trader makes chooses by being selective to reinforce his edge, he cares not to be right but to make money, he also knows his psychological make up will constantly try to derail him, but to be aware is a step forward for expansion which is the opposite of contraction.

When he looks at any instruments PA is always shifting between a few phases: trend (spike), channel and range. Channels are hybrid between trend and range, they can be narrow or large, fast or slow, when large they are traded like range, when narrow they are traded like trend with limit orders (not enough space to swing a mouse).

So, prices move fast (trend), then a few minor TL's get broken and prices set in channels in his various aspects, then prices normally shift into range before they break out in either direction and so on and on again and again.

A street smart trader will specialize (in a sea of uncertainty) in all the above phases or in one only, with time and experience he will gain confidence and know more than most (giving him a stronger edge), here he will start to become a professional in his own game and gave him the gratification in knowing he can compete with anyone else in his own field.

He know by only following PA does not need to follow anything else but he is also aware of anything else.

 

[Fugazsy]

now the Italian say: tra il dire and il fare c'e' di mezzo il mare". Best translate is: It is one thing to talk theory. It is a far greater accomplishment to obtain results.....

Have not being choosy here, I just pick up one (the first one) an unusual cross just to show any instruments can be careful analysis in technical terms in his most subtle PA.

How would I trade this? Well all easy in hindsight but I already been given some clues in the previous post.

Being able to know what is going on will help you create your own edge based on your personality and availability to the market. Also once you know the nature of the movement you can also apply to the chart any indicators to give you a better objective view if you wish (but not before understanding its nature ), which can also (indicators) keep your demons at bay.....anyway this is another story....

 

[piphoe]

now the Italian say: tra il dire and il fare c'e' di mezzo il mare". Best translate is: It is one thing to talk theory. It is a far greater accomplishment to obtain results.....

Have not being choosy here, I just pick up one (the first one) an unusual cross just to show any instruments can be careful analysis in technical terms in his most subtle PA.

How would I trade this? Well all easy in hindsight but I already been given some clues in the previous post.

Being able to know what is going on will help you create your own edge based on your personality and availability to the market. Also once you know the nature of the movement you can also apply to the chart any indicators to give you a better objective view if you wish (but not before understanding its nature ), which can also (indicators) keep your demons at bay.....anyway this is another story....

only one way to trade that chart...all too long side. real question is what now at that hard right edge.

i'd go long for retest of highs

 

[Fugazsy]

only one way to trade that chart...all too long side. real question is what now at that hard right edge.

i'd go long for retest of highs

Hi ph
yes trading on the long side would have been the wise choice after the first spike.

how you trade on the right edge must be done in relation to your own system.

What I am showing here is the ability to have a clearer view of what is going on trough PA.

Personally I have a bull view here, sterling is strong, kiwi weak but the all is balancing out a bit.....A proper break out would be an ideal with a strong trend bar or a break out pull back with a protective stop below that swing or at the next swing low down with the view of testing the recent extreme as you suggested.

But before deciding in taking a trade all the conditions needs to be met otherwise is best to go fishing.

 

[Fugazsy]

in larger phases there are smaller phases, here on the same chart you have larger channels....

 

[Fugazsy]

and this is another instruments in current.

trend lines and channel lines are constantly delete and redrawn when not relevant or not effective as soon as two swing are formed.

 

[Fugazsy]

eu

since the election this seems the most serious attempt of the bulls trying to push up... I will not buy here......but I am hesitant in shorting as well.....side line for now...

 

[Fugazsy]

in larger phases there are smaller phases, here on the same chart you have larger channels....

well contained in the channel for now.....

Not much going on this morning in any pairs, counter traders are making their way, not much but enough.....watch for anxiety, she will try to make you find trades where they are not....if she surface be aware and let her be, she will subdue but if she does not at least she will not control you .....

 

[Fugazsy]

daily and hourly dollar index......looks a bit tired to me....

 

[Fugazsy]

daily gold, oil 240m.

 

[Fugazsy]

so, if $ dollar drops, gold might break the flag hit the nose against support making a fail final flag and move up at a double bottom bull flag..........ye ye :clover:

oil has broken many Dtrendlines and spiked up (at the 3 pushes down or wedge....now in a expanding triangle or megaphone....

 

[Fugazsy]

and this is another instruments in current.

trend lines and channel lines are constantly delete and redrawn when not relevant or not effective as soon as two swing are formed.

Time for me to stop trading for the day.

My exit signal is near and I have closed the trade: +148 and +193 pips, risked 2% made 8.1%. Trade initiated the 15/11

I am flat now, my wife is calling....

 

[Fugazsy]

eu

since the election this seems the most serious attempt of the bulls trying to push up... I will not buy here......but I am hesitant in shorting as well.....side line for now...

oops...

 

[Fugazsy]