Is the probability of my losing money 60%

[BeginnerJoe]

I have been doing a single stock spread betting, and the price is slumping for the 6th day. I have no stops and have been averaging down. Yes, I know this is totally against the conventional wisdom. The stock is in the financial sector and the fed is doing its best to kill me off. So is the probability of my trades becoming an overall loser 60%, or do you reckon it will be much higher ?

 

[TheBramble]

No, you keep on averaging down. The Fed will notice this and they'll back off eventually.

Stay strong.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

don't give up !! keep averaging down !!

the lower it gets, the cheaper it is !!

buy as much as you can, as cheap as you can.
after all, it can never get to zero,
so just wait until it bounces back,
you'll be the King of Moorgate !!

and those suckers who told you to use stop losses will have the smirks wiped off their faces while you whisk by in your Rolls

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Thank you for your support guys. We'll see how the probability goes.

 

[TheBramble]

Luckily for us all, that doesn't come into it on this one.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

You make it sound like a dead cert. But I'll ride the probability waves for now. I have to admit the environment is extremely negative given all the bollucks coming out of the rating agencies at the moment.

 

[China Diapers]

Bernanke signals no new round of quantitative easing

In the long term your strategy's (or lack thereof) probability of losing is 100%

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Bernanke signals no new round of quantitative easing

Yes, that was in the news yesterdays. Moody was threatening UK downgrade earlier, which was subsequently withdrawn. The market went all wuzz and couldn't handle that.

 

[anley]

What's the fed got to do with it? Plenty of stocks go up regardless of what the fed does or does not do. So if you're relying on the fed to make you money (or held you lose less) you've got no chance, repeat NO CHANCE.

Anyway, I doubt you'd credit the fed if you made money, that would no doubt be ALL your own skill.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Just having a laugh people. The trade is real and it went against me. I am still learning and trying different strategies. Although your responses were as expected and correct. I am a sarcastic humor type myself, so I didn't miss anything. The environment is negative for the financials for sometime and I am trying to bottom fish. So that isn't too clever.

I have just put in a rather late straddle and the loss is contained. The straddle was missing from my game plan until now. So new lesson learned and another finishing piece added to the puzzle.

 

[JRP2891]

Hilarious, really.

 

[Doomberg]

You should of sold anything in the financial sector a week ago mate....

But to answer the question in the OP there is more chance that 'the average' person will lose,
why do you think IG / ETX / CS / WS all make MILLIONS? People often say that these SB firms
are dodgy as fook, but many are ok.... the markets make it hard enough, i was chatting with
a friend the other day and he was saying "no, its 50/50... it either goes up of down"

But thats not true, the markets ripsaw and often take out stops before going a certain way

 

[Black Swan]

What's the fed got to do with it? Plenty of stocks go up regardless of what the fed does or does not do. So if you're relying on the fed to make you money (or held you lose less) you've got no chance, repeat NO CHANCE.

Anyway, I doubt you'd credit the fed if you made money, that would no doubt be ALL your own skill.

For the next round of Q.E. to *work* equities have to have a mini collapse, circa 20%. Now I don't do stocks but if I did I'd only do sectors, waht sectors do you see winning as Q.E. approaches/unfolds?

 

[BeginnerJoe]

You should of sold anything in the financial sector a week ago mate....

But to answer the question in the OP there is more chance that 'the average' person will lose,
why do you think IG / ETX / CS / WS all make MILLIONS? People often say that these SB firms
are dodgy as fook, but many are ok.... the markets make it hard enough, i was chatting with
a friend the other day and he was saying "no, its 50/50... it either goes up of down"

But thats not true, the markets ripsaw and often take out stops before going a certain way

I believe in conspiracies, and from experience I believe the SB firms do actively take out stops, if not directly then via their associates. This is the main reason I don't use stops. It's equivalent to hanging fruits on the tree ready for the picking. I believe that they have more trouble dealing with me, when I don't have stops, as they have no idea what my real intention is.

I lost money when I had stops. More recently I made money from no stops. Although it's perfectly possible the events are just pure coincidences. But I am stubborn in my beliefs.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

For the next round of Q.E. to *work* equities have to have a mini collapse, circa 20%. Now I don't do stocks but if I did I'd only do sectors, waht sectors do you see winning as Q.E. approaches/unfolds?

The understanding is that there will be no further QE's. This is currently being priced in to the financials. I can see these bottoming out at the end of june. But you should probably buy stocks instead of using leverage to reduce the risk of getting the timing wrong.

 

[shortsell]

Pack it in now Joe. It will save you an absolute fortune.

 

[Doomberg]

I believe in conspiracies, and from experience I believe the SB firms do actively take out stops, if not directly then via their associates. This is the main reason I don't use stops. It's equivalent to hanging fruits on the tree ready for the picking. I believe that they have more trouble dealing with me, when I don't have stops, as they have no idea what my real intention is.

I lost money when I had stops. More recently I made money from no stops. Although it's perfectly possible the events are just pure coincidences. But I am stubborn in my beliefs.

I see what you mean mate, but if RBS shares are 42p today and you have got £10 a pip with a 5 point stop, they won't change their entire data just to stop you out, and if they did people would know because the live price never hit that... remember there will be people / FSA streaming live prices and SB firms prices to make sure they are not taking the pi55 too much... and if you have 1000 quid in your account, go to IG and ask for DMA

 

[Black Swan]

The understanding is that there will be no further QE's. This is currently being priced in to the financials. I can see these bottoming out at the end of june. But you should probably buy stocks instead of using leverage to reduce the risk of getting the timing wrong.

Hahaha..nice one "Joe". Enjoy the attention

 

[BeginnerJoe]

I see what you mean mate, but if RBS shares are 42p today and you have got £10 a pip with a 5 point stop, they won't change their entire data just to stop you out, and if they did people would know because the live price never hit that... remember there will be people / FSA streaming live prices and SB firms prices to make sure they are not taking the pi55 too much... and if you have 1000 quid in your account, go to IG and ask for DMA

I am not saying the price move would be artificial. I noticed the frequency of actual price moves that hit stops and immediately reverse in direction is so high as to be a dead cert. I am sure other SB players would have made similar observations. Someone is out there taking out stops. We can infer the the source of that being, at least in part, the beneficiary. If I have no stops, there's nothing for them to play with.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Hahaha..nice one "Joe". Enjoy the attention

What is your view on QE's ? I am genuinely interested, We will see one way or another after this month. The noises from china now indicate that they see a default, presumably from lack of QE.