Long term bear trend is not over!! However this bull run may only over once bears have been skinned and bull have run run out ammunition! And that may take a few (maybe a lot) more points but perhaps not a lot of time.
Could this be a 'buy on the rumour sell on the news' situation? The markets seem to think there will be a short war with a positive outcome. I can't help feeling that if Saddam does have the weapons the US claims, he is most likely to use them on US troops. I think this might not be as easy as the last Gulf war.
The price of oil has fallen dramatically in the last few days. If the war drags out, it could re-trace this fall. That would be one way that the markets could see new lows.
It was interesting to see the John Simpson programme about Saddam on BBC4. He claimed Saddam was hiding in Baghdad in a bunker underneath the hotel the journalists were staying in during the gulf war. The Americans asked the journalists to leave but they refused (they didn't know about the bunker). So the Americans were unable to bomb the hotel and the bunker. I don't think they will think twice this time.
I also believe is a relief in the bears, once all the shorts are collecting there "war profits", oil will go down until saddam, which i also believe is gone use chemical's against Allies troops, and don't forget the British said a couple of weeks ago in case of use by saddam of chemical they will be excused to use "nuke", and they said they will use them, because in the last decade has been great improvements in this area where the damage is limited by precision and size of bombs... if that happens or anything which can show the markets any improbability on the "quick war", i believe we will see oil shooting up and markets coming down, yes because there inn;t any good fundamental data coming out at the moment, by the opposite all the forecast for the 2.,3 quarter is bearish in terms of corporate news...
From TBS's post- those are some really sick looking charts(if one insists are being long ) I think more people(read- the general public) need to look at these charts and then maybe they will understand.
Fortunately all us traders can be long or short or out