Is the Bear market over?

YES -it's a special offer for the next two weeks only.

Buy into this new bull market while you can!

If the Dow cracks 9000 even I may feel slightly bullish (but probably not enough to stop me placing a long term short)
Long term bear trend is not over!! However this bull run may only over once bears have been skinned and bull have run run out ammunition! And that may take a few (maybe a lot) more points but perhaps not a lot of time.
Wait until June/July. The economic news is poor and until the outlook for forecat profits improves we are likely to continue in a bear market.

Having said that I expect S&P 500 to get to 910 or so..

Consumer confidence is low and falling: until that improves demand will be weak:
Could this be a 'buy on the rumour sell on the news' situation? The markets seem to think there will be a short war with a positive outcome. I can't help feeling that if Saddam does have the weapons the US claims, he is most likely to use them on US troops. I think this might not be as easy as the last Gulf war.

The price of oil has fallen dramatically in the last few days. If the war drags out, it could re-trace this fall. That would be one way that the markets could see new lows.
I think he's more likely to use them on Israel.

With either scenario I expect the retalliation to be a battlefield Nuke on the Republican Guard.

Bush expressed that <i>the full might</i> of the American millitary is available to the commanders. I took this as a thinly guarded threat to Saddam not to play with fire.

If I were SH I would draw the US into a war they can't win: a 3 month siege of Baghdad. They will of course win but atacost...
The new weapons for sieges

If Saddam does hold out in Bagdad then it could get messy.

In this scenario I expect the Yanks to deploy new technology weapons such as the Microwave immobiliser.

This weapon immobilisers all humans within around a 150 metres radius by jamming the nerve signals. There are beleived to be no side effects.

Other possibilities include nerve agents, and intoxicating gases.

Of course Bush could always flatten the city with WMDs to prove he does have them...

I suspect the American Military plan might involve troups in Baghdad from day one via a very large and complex airbourne assault.

It was interesting to see the John Simpson programme about Saddam on BBC4. He claimed Saddam was hiding in Baghdad in a bunker underneath the hotel the journalists were staying in during the gulf war. The Americans asked the journalists to leave but they refused (they didn't know about the bunker). So the Americans were unable to bomb the hotel and the bunker. I don't think they will think twice this time.






Not that it hasn't been a welcome rise with some great opportunities.
I also believe is a relief in the bears, once all the shorts are collecting there "war profits", oil will go down until saddam, which i also believe is gone use chemical's against Allies troops, and don't forget the British said a couple of weeks ago in case of use by saddam of chemical they will be excused to use "nuke", and they said they will use them, because in the last decade has been great improvements in this area where the damage is limited by precision and size of bombs... if that happens or anything which can show the markets any improbability on the "quick war", i believe we will see oil shooting up and markets coming down, yes because there inn;t any good fundamental data coming out at the moment, by the opposite all the forecast for the 2.,3 quarter is bearish in terms of corporate news... :devilish:
TBS said:




From TBS's post- those are some really sick looking charts(if one insists are being long :( ) I think more people(read- the general public) need to look at these charts and then maybe they will understand.

Fortunately all us traders can be long or short or out