Is it Historic-Time to Take Profit and Hedge OR jusPrepare to Trade on the Bear Side?

[mminoo]

There are several Gaps on All Indices to be filled at lower side and also at Historical Level much lower down.

So many of the Cycles have failed on the correction (down) side and Continuously Surprised us on the Upside.

Is this Mid-October 2017 time to Prepare:

Go Hunting South with The Bears Seasonally (Short Term)
or
Cyclically (Mid to Long Term Correction to Bearish Cycle) ?

Anticipated correction by so many pundits so far has delayed the correction;
So are we at The Very Beginning of an Historical Moment Now (Oct 2017 Top & Crash)?

I would Welcome a Economical Correction in the Markets if the upcoming Stats & Earning Season indicate Or a Long Consolidation for the Bull to Continue (though not likely as Complacency (VIX Indicative) & Euphoria (Several Historic Highs) Seem to be playing out)

This market is so ripe for a Geo-Political led Crash with the added pressure of substantial Pullback /Correction well overdue

Is it worth taking any more Risk in the Market Upside any more ?

More often than not The Market has continue and most of us cannot time either the Tops or Bottoms, So is it worth traders being nimble and caution here

My predicament is: Do I take some profit and Hedge the remaining Portfolio or Start establishing some speculative Bearish Positions ? ? ? .

Psychologically speaking Keeping an 'Open Mind' but noting (perhaps fearing) as well The Scent of The Bear.

Nothing is more important than to time this correctly, and its impossible to time the market in my opinion, so I am today going flat on most of my Bullish positions in Indices and increasing the Hedge side Longs with VIX and USD Futures & Options (Increasingly becoming net negative on the Market (Risk Off)

Good Article to Refer: https://banyanhill.com/exclusives/80...ike-in-2016-2/

Any Comments Welcome

Regards Minoo

 

[mminoo]

I was asked the below Question on another Forum & Below is my Reply

Q) How do we Protect from the Anticipated Downside, which has failed to play out ?

Attempted Answer:

I can only chime here what I have started to do increasingly in the market

-Locked in Profit to Get out
(I am out over 80% of my Portfolio Positions which cannot be executed during over night hours, also have Tighten my Stops on the remaining Positions)

-To make most out of a sudden drop or to strategically Hook the Top in
(As market establishes new highs percentage of locked in gains is allocated; To go long in VIX and USD positions using Options and Futures)

-Simple Risk Off Trade: Go Long Bonds & Notes ETFs (TLT, IEI, IEF etc)

For me its not just worth risking these Abnormal Gains and still wait for market Top (or trying to time the top that's very Risky thing to do & remain long with anticipated Bears Fear)

Simply Book or at least Lock in Profit and if you must than establish some sensible Hedges (ie Go long on VIX & USD)

I am avoiding Gold Holdings as well as interest rates are far too low.

One should plan to protect Financial-Capital as well as your 'Mental Capital'.
(Think if the Bear strikes how good a position you are going to be in & what percentage gain is remaining to be on upside and How much to the Downside & most importantly will you have time to get out ???)

As financially most have achieved its time to collect & protect; and equally to take care of Mental Part (I want to book profits now and not be sorry later, but rather make something if the Bear Strikes Suddenly)

ie Balancing Both of Greed and Fear factor Within one traderself.

Thanks for asking.

All The Best
Minoo

Greed = Is also defined as 'Fear of Missing Out'