Iran War and the Impact on Oil

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Trump in deep pooh with this war, fighting the Zionists racist and ethnic cleansing, genocidal policies to create the garden of eden God supposedly promised them.

These Zionists are very dangerous with their god delusion. They have now turned on innocent civilian palestinians in the West Bank. The rest of the World stays quiet. IDF soldiers smashing up Christ symbols with sledge hammers too. Apparently, that soldier will be jailed. Whilst IDF get a pat on the back for killing innocent civilians and journalists in Lebanon. World's gone upside down on morality.

At the same time, US weapons depleted, mega deficit to budget, no objectives on the Iran war and no exit strategy. Rest of the World suffering high inflation with the US not impacted just yet and enjoying her self the high price of oil supplying the rest of the World.

All these attrocities will come home to roost and the US and Israel will pay a price sooner or later. Limits of arrogance and abuse of power well over-reached.

I find it comical that the press here in the UK still hounding Starmer for staying out of the war by asking for his recognition about Mandelson and Epstain Israelli honey-trap shit to blackmail powerful figures. The Jewish lobby are losing their grip. I think the pubic are catching up to how these big vested interests can buy politicians and senators.

Apparently, Trump asked the Iranian football team to be removed from the World Cup and offered position to Italy. https://www.euronews.com/2026/04/23...-fifa-to-replace-iran-with-italy-at-world-cup

Whilst on the other hand some countries boycotting the Eurovision because Israel, which isn't even in Europe is included in the competition.

How low can Israel and US sink? Europe stays silent.

Worst is yet to come I guess. The future looks brown.
 









 











 










 













 







 
My biggest holding by far for a few weeks now has been Sugar. I was long Oil earlier in the year but closed slightly too early at $90. But not bad from $65 at the turn of the year. In terms of Sugar. Why? It is a fuel substitute for Oil. So Raw Cane is converted to Ethanol. In addition, inflation adjusted over the past 5-10 years, it has matierally underperformed all commodities and asset classes. Next, technically set up here for a bounce and I think we may be in Wave 3 right now which is the strongest wave. Finally ........Super El Nino. This is expected to hit as early as some time in May. This will impact the crop massively and supply. So Cocoa had a drought issue a few years back. That wasn't Super El Nino driven. That drove the price to triple. I think Sugar going up at least 50% is a given and I remain long on the 2x LSE listed ETC
 














 








 











"Not only have the United States and Israel handed Iran, on a silver platter, escalation dominance in the conflict - the ability to manage escalation if Washington and Tel Aviv launch another round - but Tehran will also gain additional revenue from selling its 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, which economists estimate at 2–3 billion per month, or 24–36 billion per year. Essentially, even without the unfreezing of Iranian assets in Western countries, Iran will have the resources to rebuild what has been destroyed. To this should be added the fees collected from commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz."

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. . . Back to the oil trade. If you were stopped out by Friday's crash, fear not, as the market is now screaming BUY, BUY, BUY!!! (You can bet that Trump and his cronies have reversed their short positions from Friday.) Getting in at any price under $100 is good. In the coming weeks, it'll return to the $110 / $115 mark and, unless there really is some miraculous breakthrough in negotiations - it'll likely go much higher. All the predictions and targets made at the start and throughout this thread still hold true. As always, ignore what the politicians and MSM say, make your decisions based on their actions rather than their words. Daily chart of Brent Crude, below.
No change.
Don't be fooled by Trump's latest ruse to get traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). There are only two possible outcomes that I can see:
1. Traffic starts to move freely again without any intervention from the Iranians. Like that's gonna happen. Not!
2. Any U.S. craft that enters Iranian territorial waters will be warned off. If they fail to heed the warnings and get anywhere near the SoH - they are liable to be attacked.

Which of the two outcomes is the most likely? If you were Lloyd's of London - would you be happy to insure vessels on Trump's promise of safe passage? Even if they are, just imagine how high the premiums will be!!! This latest idea is yet further testimony (if it were needed) that Trump is stuck between a rock and a hard place and is completely bereft of ideas. He simply doesn't know what to do and can't extricate himself from the war without massive loss of face.

So, what will happen? Well, if I was crew on one of the U.S. ships that's supposed to execute this crazy plan, I'd hope my captain would refuse to follow through on the order and, failing that, mutiny. Self evidently, this is putting the lives of U.S. servicemen and women at huge risk, quite needlessly. It's a stupid idea that has zero chance of success. Presumably, Trump knows this only too well and is using it as a pretext to start military action again by blaming Iran for breaking the ceasefire when it atacks U.S. vessels that get anywhere near the SoH.

Regarding the oil trade: no change. Expect price to rise sharply the minute hostilities resume.
Tim.
 
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No change.
Don't be fooled by Trump's latest ruse to get traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). There are only two possible outcomes that I can see:
1. Traffic starts to move freely again without any intervention from the Iranians. Like that's gonna happen. Not!
2. Any U.S. craft that enters Iranian territorial waters will be warned off. If they fail to heed the warnings and get anywhere near the SoH - they are liable to be attacked.

Which of the two outcomes is the most likely? If you were Lloyd's of London - would you be happy to insure vessels on Trump's promise of safe passage? Even if they are, just imagine how high the premiums will be!!! This latest idea is yet further testimony (if it were needed) that Trump is stuck between a rock and a hard place and is completely bereft of ideas. He simply doesn't know what to do and can't extricate himself from the war without massive loss of face.

So, what will happen? Well, if I was crew on one of the U.S. ships that's supposed to execute this crazy plan, I'd hope my captain would refuse to follow through on the order and, failing that, mutiny. Self evidently, this is putting the lives of U.S. servicemen and women at huge risk, quite needlessly. It's a stupid idea that has zero chance of success. Presumably, Trump knows this only too well and is using it as a pretext to start military action again by blaming Iran for breaking the ceasefire when it atacks U.S. vessels that get anywhere near the SoH.

Regarding the oil trade: no change. Expect price to rise sharply the minute hostilities resume.
Tim.

You are right again Tim, there is definitely insider trading going on before Trump's verbal BS and most analysts say there is market manipulation going on. Trump is making billions out of this war along with his cronies, hence no need for peace agreement just yet. The rest of the World suffers. We are being prepared by MSM for 50/60% increase in food prices based on what farmers are predicting.

Also, Trump's escorted safe passage is a hoax. Apparently, there will be no military support just guidance on what path to take through the straits based on where they think the mines are not located.

Anything that comes out of Trump's mouth is absolute shiite. His popularity has apparently dropped below Biden's. ROTFLMAO. Super power of the World offers us two total shiites, and they call it democracy!!!

US is screwed and the Whole World knows it and now seeing it.

Bully boy is then showing an appetite for some Cuban cigars. What ever next? Love to see what Congress will say about that?
 
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