Iran War and the Impact on Oil

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. . .The time will come when gold will rebound strongly: use your favourite TA techniques and indicators to inform you when the down trend has halted and go long. Gold will rise strongly because it always does following an oil crisis. . .
I'm gonna make the call here and say go long gold. Last week's price action produced an impressive 'pin bar', indicating a lot of buying coming into the market to support price. Is Monday's low set in stone never to be breached? No, absolutely not. But the pattern of gold price falling when Brent Crude rises has been broken, evidenced by both rising very strongly on Friday. As with oil, this is a swing or position trade to last weeks or even months. So, I suggest small size with wide stops: try to enter around £3,400. A number of merchant banks have 2026 year end forecasts of $6,000+ for gold, and UBS has an upside of £7,200. And those were made before the outbreak of the Iran war. Weekly chart for gold, below.

XAUGBP_2026-03-29_16-58-05.png
 
Below is a YouTube vid' from 'Bald Guy Money' in which he talks about the decoupling of precious metals from stocks and oil and gives his forecasts for possible future gold and silver prices. Pure speculation on his part of course, but the funnymentals - along with his logic - form a cohesive argument and offer good reasons to be very bullish about gold and silver. Enjoy . . .

 
I'm gonna make the call here and say go long gold. Last week's price action produced an impressive 'pin bar', indicating a lot of buying coming into the market to support price. Is Monday's low set in stone never to be breached? No, absolutely not. But the pattern of gold price falling when Brent Crude rises has been broken, evidenced by both rising very strongly on Friday. As with oil, this is a swing or position trade to last weeks or even months. So, I suggest small size with wide stops: try to enter around £3,400. A number of merchant banks have 2026 year end forecasts of $6,000+ for gold, and UBS has an upside of £7,200. And those were made before the outbreak of the Iran war. Weekly chart for gold, below.

View attachment 346077

Yes very true and good post Tim. We are seeing the end of the dollar standard imo. Vietnam saw US come off the gold standard.

Landing boots in Iran I reckon will see the end of the dollar standard too.

Unless the US wins some free booty ie oil resources to plunder, its debt will only rise further and dollar assets I'd guess likey to be ditched all over the World.

Its markets and earnings are totally over priced and over valued. So the big reset so many peeps talking about is very close and highly probable if Trump is unable to pull back.

I have shares in gold silver and platinum ETCs. Adding to position with various dips.
 





 
Most analysts are warning the US, ill fit to tackle Iran over land.

Given the territory, mountaineous terrain and changing climate as hot weather and sand storms come into season, landing marines on Iranian territory is lunacy.

US making a lot of noise as if it's going to cause Iran to buckle. Quite the opposite I think.

When you are in the sh!t, stop digging.

I heard JD Vance speak and he made light of it and happy to claim they won, putting Iran back considerable years in their weapons program.

He made good sense to me. Claim victory and get out.

Let the remaining elite, leaders and the people sort out the mess.

I would hazard a guess and say the revoutionary guard will come under considerabl pressure for leading their people into this catastrophe after almost 50 years of daft rule and policies. Time for the turban heads to go. I feel the gentle hand of diplomacy and sweeteners will go a long way to destroying the regime from within.

Hope Trump follows JD Vance and not those two feckwits Rubio and Hegseth or Israel in their daft policies. More people speaking out agains Israel and their lobbies in the US too. Enough is enough. Stop the war before it gets out of hand and markets really do turn crimson red.
 






 
Hi At',
Just watched this interview on Glenn Diesen's YT channel and immediately thought of you - as your focus is often on big picture economics and how it impacts the world order. I think you'll be interested in what Prof. Michael Hudson has to say. Enjoy . . .

 







 










 
Hi At',
Just watched this interview on Glenn Diesen's YT channel and immediately thought of you - as your focus is often on big picture economics and how it impacts the world order. I think you'll be interested in what Prof. Michael Hudson has to say. Enjoy . . .


Hi Tim, yes very much on the nail 100% accurate assessment by Prof. Glenn Diesen.

Key points he makes can't be argued against imo.

US Debt no longer sustainable, and whilst not been heavilly reported US TBill being sold as nations switch reserve assets moving away from the dollar.

He is 100% correct in stating things will not go back to how they were. US has shown it is not fit to govern it self let alone be the "policeman of the globe". Quite comedic for anyone (like the BBC) to even use that phrase anymore. I'd love to see Trump go to China and raise their human rights record with a red face.

First, Joe Kent top US counter-terrorism offical resigned. And now regime change in the US, Trump doesn't like intelligence or no men who challenge him so Hegseth has just sacked Randy George, Chief of Staff for the Army along with Army Gen. David Hodne and Army Maj. Gen. William Green. The rule is the army is supposed to be non-political and independent of political interference.

Are there any senators with spine in the senate? Trump backed up to the hilt by the evangelists in the republican party and owned by the Jewisy lobby have shown this to be the case. This is not US's war. No US president ever listened to any Israeli leader who have all asked to bomb Iran in the past. Trump being the exception, which brings us back to the Esptain files and now sacking of Pam Bondi for not protecting Trump sufficiently.

NATO has got a red card too. That fabulous defensive alliance the US likes to push about.

International law doesn't work for Trump or the US so that's been ditched sometime back with Israel bombing the shits out of schools and hospitals and civilians in Gaza. GENOCIDE and no way can it be described as anything else. We are now seeing civilian infrastructures being hit in Iran. This is clearly Israel's war hence the total destruction of Iran is desired by the two genocidal maniacs with oil grab.

However, if you notice Israel doesn't get mentioned so much as before because public opinion has turned against them. Hence, keep a low profile and let the US take the flack. Attacking another country without warning or declaring war first is also illegal under international law.

As Prof GDiesen outlines, for Israel her objective was going to be the elimination of Iran and the US total control of oil supplies and economic power. Venezuela was never about the drugs. Libya, Syria, Iraq and Iran was all about the oil. The other ME kingdoms are already in US pockets. I think - as you remember I argued against the war in Iraq and 9/11 was an inside job. Many engineers now still question those two towers coming down, but that was the Neocon's plan to start their new ME project to reshape maps and to commandere oil. Also to stop Sadam selling oil in Euros and other currencies other than the dollar.

I think this strategy is clear as daylight now. Hope you can see it too. There are many other articles written about this in other international press.

Also, I agree that this could lead to WWIII, because the WW1 and WW2 were also a battle for global resources, which England had colonised in the late 19th century and wasn't prepared to share with other industrialising countries like Germany. For the layman WW1 & 2 are looked at through political and social lens but it was a fight to have access to resources and thus weakend UK's grip on the colonies. As we all know whilst UK and Germany Russia, knocked blocks off each other the US was able to become a superpower because the geography gave it an advantage much like Iran now and other than Japan it was a remote war one of aiding allies for them, which we paid for with the exchange of colonies.

Having said all that, I do think Trump removing the military headmen and picking his yes feckwits will only lead to further getting stuck in the quagmire of the ME. This is very serious imo. Trump has trashed international law, NATO and now the US consititution. Whatever next.

Finally, Badenoch and Farage cheered Trump's illegal war in Iran at the start, but have now changed their tune about the war.

If Farage or Badenoch ever gets elected they really will brake the UK and I strongly feel Labour and LibDems are the two parties that offer any real solution to our challenges. That entails a more equitable distribution of income and investing in social infrastructure IMHO.
 







 
I reckon the US is walking back to the stone age morally and physically with its war crimes, braked down in international rule and laws including their own constitution.

Destroying civil infrastructure and attacking schools and hospitals with Israel, hand in hand they are skipping into international humiliation and financial ruin.

Their words of peace, lust for oil and land grab and war crimes will be long remembered in the evolution of humanity.

They will both need to be tried for illegal wars and crimes against humanity. Best outcome likely to be if the US and Israel do this internally to pull back from the disastrous leadership by the two genocidal maniacs. Somehow I doubt it, time will tell.
 
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. . . NATO has got a red card too. That fabulous defensive alliance the US likes to push about. . .

. . .If Farage or Badenoch ever gets elected they really will brake the UK and I strongly feel Labour and LibDems are the two parties that offer any real solution to our challenges. That entails a more equitable distribution of income and investing in social infrastructure IMHO.
Excellent post At' and I agree with everything you say apart from the two points, quoted above.

Firstly, NATO was a defensive alliance formed following the cold war. Once the Berlin wall came down and the former soviet union was dismantled, NATO was redundant. I'll criticise Trump until I'm blue in the face, but I won't object if he decides to pull the plug on NATO. It will help EU countries foster independance and grow strionger, instead of being suboardinate vassal states of the U.S. that are scared to stand up to Trump. The exception of course being Spain - well done them. Just imagine how Trump would react if all EU countries and Japan etc. followed their lead and simply said NO!

Secondly, whilst I accept and agree with your comments about Badenoch and Farage, the idea that Starmer and Davey are any better is laughable to me. Just different cheeks of the same arse: all equally useless and all puppets of the billionaire Epstein class who are the ones who are really running the show. Just my £0.02p worth! ;-)
Tim.
 
Excellent post At' and I agree with everything you say apart from the two points, quoted above.

Firstly, NATO was a defensive alliance formed following the cold war. Once the Berlin wall came down and the former soviet union was dismantled, NATO was redundant. I'll criticise Trump until I'm blue in the face, but I won't object if he decides to pull the plug on NATO. It will help EU countries foster independance and grow strionger, instead of being suboardinate vassal states of the U.S. that are scared to stand up to Trump. The exception of course being Spain - well done them. Just imagine how Trump would react if all EU countries and Japan etc. followed their lead and simply said NO!

Secondly, whilst I accept and agree with your comments about Badenoch and Farage, the idea that Starmer and Davey are any better is laughable to me. Just different cheeks of the same arse: all equally useless and all puppets of the billionaire Epstein class who are the ones who are really running the show. Just my £0.02p worth! ;-)
Tim.

Agree about Nato. Now that Warsaw pact is no longer thus no need for Nato.

Moreover as I have been saying all along, Russia is an asset to the EU and UK for energy and trade links.

Our greater opportunity is to the east. The US of A is so behind us.

Quicker we make peace w Russia the better. EU leaders still not really leaders but followers.

I hope Spain joins Russia and helps Cuba in due course.
 
Excellent post At' and I agree with everything you say apart from the two points, quoted above.

Firstly, NATO was a defensive alliance formed following the cold war. Once the Berlin wall came down and the former soviet union was dismantled, NATO was redundant. I'll criticise Trump until I'm blue in the face, but I won't object if he decides to pull the plug on NATO. It will help EU countries foster independance and grow strionger, instead of being suboardinate vassal states of the U.S. that are scared to stand up to Trump. The exception of course being Spain - well done them. Just imagine how Trump would react if all EU countries and Japan etc. followed their lead and simply said NO!

Secondly, whilst I accept and agree with your comments about Badenoch and Farage, the idea that Starmer and Davey are any better is laughable to me. Just different cheeks of the same arse: all equally useless and all puppets of the billionaire Epstein class who are the ones who are really running the show. Just my £0.02p worth! ;-)
Tim.

I do think you sd give some credit for Starmer stating this is an illegal war and staying out.

Be fair.
 
I do think you sd give some credit for Starmer stating this is an illegal war and staying out.

Be fair.
I think you're being generous to Starmer, At'!
Starmer's not 'staying out' in my book. Staying out means doing what Spain has done and having absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the war. Instead, he's sent HMS Drag-on to the region - which endangers British lives rather than protects them. Even worse, he's allowing U.S. bombers to take off from RAF Fairford "for defensive missions to destroy Iran's missile capabilities," according to the MoD. The U.S. doesn't need to defend itself as it's not under attack! If I was an Iranian government official, I'd class the U.K. as an enemy who is aiding and abetting the aggressor in their unprovoked illegal war of choice. We're either in it or we're out of it - we can't be both. Starmer's trying to be a little bit pregnant.

Sorry if you think I'm being uncharitable!
😉
 
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I think you're being generous to Starmer, At'!
Starmer's not 'staying out' in my book. Staying out means doing what Spain has done and having absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the war. Instead, he's sent HMS Drag-on to the region - which endangers British lives rather than protects them. Even worse, he's allowing U.S. bombers to take off from RAF Fairford "for defensive missions to destroy Iran's missile capabilities," according to the MoD. The U.S. doesn't need to defend itself as it's not under attack! If I was an Iranian government official, I'd class the U.K. as an enemy who is aiding and abetting the aggressor in their unprovoked illegal war of choice. We're either in it or we're out of it - we can't be both. Starmer's trying to be a little bit pregnant.

Sorry if you think I'm being uncharitable!
😉

Yes fair points but never the less we could be upto our necks in shit, instead of ankles.

No need for charity. Be fair ref.

Just hearing US has asked for 48 hour cease fire. God knows what diff that'll make.

Iran has declined the daft offer.
 
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