Iran War and the Impact on Oil

[timsk]

One of the debates that has cropped up from time to time on T2W is the thorny topic of ethics and trading. It's up to each member to make up their own minds as to where they stand on this issue. In this case, the issue is whether or not you're prepared to try to profit from war. If you can live with that, here's a potential no brainer of a trade to take if Trump completely loses his mind and initiates WW3 by attacking Iran (again).

The west in general - and the U.S. in particular - grossly underestimate the military capabilities of the Iranians. Big mistake, huge, massive. Like the Russian Oreshnik, they have hypersonik missiles against which there's virtually no defense. Watch out Israel! On top of that, if their hand is forced, they could close the Straight of Hormuz. This would be catastrophic for world trade and especially for the price of oil which would go through the roof. Some anecdotal reports I've read suggest price will soar to $700 a barrel.

The (insane) gamble that Trump (and Netanyahu) are taking is that Iran won't close the straight because they would suffer as much - if not more - as everyone else; i.e. they'd be shooting themselves in the foot. However, the Iranians have lived under the most stringent U.S. sanctions for a quite a while now so, in their minds, they may think they've got little to lose.

So, keep an eye on oil and if the war drums get louder in the next week or so and price starts to creep up - go long with a wide stop. Attached below is a monthly chart of Brent Crude to provide a macro perspective. If I were to trade this I'd look for price to break the red trendline and have a stop around $58.00. For the more conservative among you that might not be comfortable with the volatility that might be unleashed - go long gold instead.

Needless to say, this is just my £0.02p worth and hopefully, the U.S. won't attack Iran and the price of oil will stay roughly where it is!

 

[timsk]

Iran partially closes Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil choke point, as Tehran holds talks with U.S.​

Yes, it's just a temporary and partial closure - but it sends a powerful signal: Iran has friends and options. It's highly unlikely they've taken this decision unilaterally without the approval of both the Chinese and the Russians. Other than the insane Netanyahu, no one in the middle east wants war with Iran - with the possible exception of the UAE. The danger is that Israel takes the gamble that if they kick things off and Iran strikes back - which they absolutely will - that the U.S. will come to Israel's defense.

All the focus in recents weeks / months has been on Epstein and what he had on - and over - the billionaire elite class. I think it's fair to assume the incriminating evidence in the Epstein files is nothing compared to what Mossad and the Isrealis have on Trump and numerous other senior people in both the current and former administrations. What else explains why the U.S. is so subserviant to Isreal and agrees to any and every demand that it makes?

To the markets: as you'd expect, it's a strong start to the day for gold.
Tim.

 

[Rufus_Leakey]

Iran partially closes Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil choke point, as Tehran holds talks with U.S.​

Yes, it's just a temporary and partial closure - but it sends a powerful signal: Iran has friends and options. It's highly unlikely they've taken this decision unilaterally without the approval of both the Chinese and the Russians. Other than the insane Netanyahu, no one in the middle east wants war with Iran - with the possible exception of the UAE. The danger is that Israel takes the gamble that if they kick things off and Iran strikes back - which they absolutely will - that the U.S. will come to Israel's defense.

Fully closing the Strait of Hormuz would be an example of cutting off one's nose to spite one's face.

Strait of Hormuz - Iran and Oil - The Strauss Center

Iran's economy is dominated by trade. Because nearly all of Iran's oil export terminals and large ports are located within the Persian Gulf, Iran depends on the Strait of Hormuz for its economic well-being. Closing the Strait would certainly hurt the Iranian economy. Like many other Persian Gulf...

www.strausscenter.org

Like many other Persian Gulf countries, Iran’s economy depends on oil export revenues, the bulk of which traverse the Strait of Hormuz. Iran exports about 2.6 million barrels of oil per day, and oil export revenues account for some 85% of all Iranian government revenue. Due to insufficient domestic refining capacity[ii], Iran also relies heavily on the Strait for gasoline imports, estimated at 400,000 barrels per day.[iii]

Roughly 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz each year,[iv] representing approximately 83 percent of all Iranian exports.[v] Iran’s oil export facilities are all located in the Persian Gulf. The only major oceanic port, Chah Bahar, has no deepwater piers (capable of handling large oil tankers) or pipeline infrastructure connecting it to Iran’s oil infrastructure. Therefore, Iran’s oil exports must traverse the Strait.

And, Iran's "friends" didn't do much when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran last year. Would this time be different?
Google AI Overview says

Russia, China, and North Korea responded to the U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran in June 2025 primarily with rhetoric, offering strong diplomatic condemnation of the strikes while avoiding direct military intervention. They condemned the actions as "unprovoked aggression" and violations of international law, accusing the U.S. of escalating regional tensions.

Milwaukee Independent +4

• • Russia: President Putin and his government labeled the strikes as "unjustified" and "unprovoked," warning that the actions risked a wider conflict.
  • China: The Chinese Foreign Ministry condemned the attack, stating it violated international law and exacerbated tensions, while urging all sides to de-escalate.
  • North Korea: Pyongyang denounced the strikes, accusing the U.S. and Israel of violating Iranian sovereignty and trampling on security interests.
    
    
    Milwaukee Independent +1

I see no good reason for anyone to attack Iran at the moment, but I'm not in charge, of course.😉

 

[timsk]

Fully closing the Strait of Hormuz would be an example of cutting off one's nose to spite one's face.

I wonder R_L, is it possible for you to reply to any post of mine without patronising me?
Regarding your point, I've already addressed it in my OP as I knew someone would raise it if I didn't.

And, Iran's "friends" didn't do much when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran last year. Would this time be different?

How do you know they didn't do much?
This time is different because, for example, we know the Iranians have state-of-the-art Chinese built satelite radar that can detect stealth bombers at distance.

I see no good reason for anyone to attack Iran at the moment, but I'm not in charge, of course.😉

Well, we agree on one thing at least. The 'reason(s)' are all in Netanyahu's mad head, and in the heads of one or two or your insane senators like Lindsey Graham. I suggest you fire off an e-mail to him to see if he agrees with you that there's "no good reason for anyone to attack Iran at the moment".
Tim.

 

[timsk]

For some background info about U.S. and Iran, the ever excellent Prof. Jeffrey Sachs fills in some details in the sercond half of this interview on the Judging Freedom podcast. The discussion starts with the Ukraine war. Anyone wishing to comment on that - please do so on the thread devoted to that topic - so the focus here can remain on Iran and the impact a conflict may have on oil and gold. Thank you!

 

[timsk]

As is often the case with trading, the early bird catches the worm. Getting in before a move gets underway often beats trying to jump on board a fast moving train. With that in mind, I think now's the time. Monthly chart of Brent Crude below and, below that, a daily chart of Gold which has gapped up today. I believe this is 'risk off' safe haven money that doesn't like the way the international picture is shaping up.

 

[Rufus_Leakey]

I wonder R_L, is it possible for you to reply to any post of mine without patronising me?
Regarding your point, I've already addressed it in my OP as I knew someone would raise it if I didn't.


How do you know they didn't do much?
This time is different because, for example, we know the Iranians have state-of-the-art Chinese built satelite radar that can detect stealth bombers at distance.


Well, we agree on one thing at least. The 'reason(s)' are all in Netanyahu's mad head, and in the heads of one or two or your insane senators like Lindsey Graham. I suggest you fire off an e-mail to him to see if he agrees with you that there's "no good reason for anyone to attack Iran at the moment".
Tim.

I wasn't trying to patronize you at all. My point was Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz would hurt Iran more than their enemies because they rely on it for their economy more than their enemies.

Iran's allies did not appear to send help while Iran was being attacked -- at least according to reliable news sources. It's hard to predict what will happen when a war breaks out. For example, I don't think too many experts and non-experts thought Ukraine would hold out this long against the Russian invasion.

I don't bother to mail or otherwise directly communicate with my politicians anymore. All they do is send back a form letter, put me on a mailing list, and beg for contributions. But I do research candidates running in elections and pick the ones I think would do the best job.

 

[timsk]

All the signs suggest that an attack on Iran is imminent. Whether it's Israeli lead, U.S. lead or a joint effort is the only thing that's r eally debatable. So, anyone wanting to trade this, buy gold if you're conservative or oil if you can handle the volatility. For more background info on what's happening, Brien Berletic of The New Atlas offers his usual evidence based and fact checked insight. Enjoy . . .

 

[timsk]

Well, as expected, the two most insane and dangerous men on the planet - Trump and Netanyahu - have started an entirely unprovoked war of choice against Iran. I suspect both are about to receive an education from the Iranians. My heart goes out to U.S. service personnel on ships and at U.S. bases in the region who signed up thinking they would help stop major conflicts - not start them. They will surely come under attack in the coming hours and days.

Expect a gap up in both oil and gold when the markets open tomorrow night (Sunday 1st March).
🙁

 

[timsk]

Weekly chart of Brent Crude, below.
Clear support and double bottom (green line) at $58.50. Near resistance at $80.50. Expect this to be tested early next week. If the conflict looks to be getting worse - especially if there are U.S. casualties - expect price to continue to rise. Next resistence level at $96.00. The reason being that the entire oil supply of the region (not just Iran's 3.3 million barrels per day) is potentially at risk, even if oil facilities themselves aren't targeted. Any hint of the Iranians closing the straight of Hormuz - price will likely spike up.

Needless to say, the reverse is true. Price could crash back down if a settlement is reached quickly. As stated previously, gold is a safer play with less volatility. Expect price to test - and breach - the January high of circa $5,600 early next week.

 

[timsk]

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Iran’s Army Chief Reportedly Killed as US–Israel Operation Expands​

Israel Seems Certain Iranian Supreme Leader Was Killed Along Other Senior Officials

The signs are growing that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei “is no more,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a...

southfront.press

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/524351/Iran-was-not-bluffing

Iran Closes Hormuz, Missiles Hit Gulf Bases as Region Slides Toward Full-Scale War​

Middle East on Edge: Iran's Retaliation Plans, and Trump’s Ultimatum​

LIVE UPDATES: Israel Launches ‘Preemptive Strike’ Against Iran — Defense Minister

Israeli army has initiated a strike against Iran "to remove threats against the State of Israel", the nation’s Defense Minister Israel Katz announced, adding a special and immediate state of emergency has been declared across the country.

sputnikglobe.com

Iran Will Withstand US-Israeli Regime Change Attempt – Expert

While Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu make no secret of trying to foment a popular uprising in Iran, their plans are unlikely to succeed, Mehran Kamrava, professor of government at Georgetown University Qatar, tells Sputnik.

sputnikglobe.com

American-Israeli Strikes Kill Over 50 At Girls School, Iran Wipes Out U.S. Naval Base (Videos)

One of the strikes launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28 morning hit a girls’...

southfront.press

Iran Closes Strait Of Hormuz, Strikes $1,1 Billion American Missile Radar In Qatar (Videos)

Iran escalated its retaliatory operations across the Middle East in the afternoon of February 28, with reports suggesting that the...

southfront.press

Iranian Missiles Target Israel, In Addition To U.S. Bases In Bahrain, Qatar, UAE And Kuwait (Videos)

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it has begun “the first wave of extensive missile and drone attacks” against...

southfront.press

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Iranian State Television Confirms Death of Country's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been killed in attacks by Israel and the United States, Iranian state television confirmed.

sputnikglobe.com

Strait of Hormuz Closure: Expert Outlines Three Scenarios for Oil Markets

There are ways the oil markets may react to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Lebanese energy policy researcher Marc Ayoub tells Sputnik

sputnikglobe.com

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Iran's Military Leadership Eliminated Completely in One Day​

Iranians rally countrywide to mourn Leader’s martyrdom in US-Israeli aggression

Iranians across the country took to the streets on Sunday to mourn the martyrdom of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, in terrorist US-Israeli aerial assaults.

www.presstv.ir

Missile Barrage Across Six Countries Reshapes the Rules of War in the Middle East​

IRGC strikes USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier with volley of ballistic missiles

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) says it has targeted the US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln with four ballistic missiles.

www.presstv.ir

Iran Holds 2,500 Ballistic Missiles, Rebuilds Missile Arsenal After June War​

Forget Oil: Natural Gas Prices Are About to Go Through the Roof If Hormuz Isn’t Reopened Soon

“Gas prices may rise, because approximately 20% of the world’s LNG transits through the Strait of Hormuz, including all of Qatar’s production,” Igor Yushkov, a top Russian energy expert, told Sputnik, commenting on the Persian Gulf crisis.

sputnikglobe.com

US Doesn’t Have Enough Missile Interceptors For Sustained War Against Iran: Here’s Why

“The primary problem the US and its proxies in the region have is America’s own global overreach,” prolific geopolitical analyst Brian Berletic told Sputnik, commenting on reporting by Bloomberg that US missile interceptor stocks could run low “within days” if sustained Iranian retaliatory...

sputnikglobe.com

 

[Rufus_Leakey]

Iranians rally countrywide to mourn Leader’s martyrdom in US-Israeli aggression

Iranians across the country took to the streets on Sunday to mourn the martyrdom of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, in terrorist US-Israeli aerial assaults.

www.presstv.ir

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/28/world/middleeast/iran-khameni-celebrations.html

Iranians Take to the Streets to Celebrate Khamenei’s Death​

Some Iranians said on social media that they were privately mourning the supreme leader. But displays of exuberance broke out in cities across the country.

By Farnaz Fassihi and Christiaan Triebert
Published Feb. 28, 2026Updated March 1, 2026, 11:01 a.m. ET

Large crowds of Iranians poured into the streets of Tehran and other cities across Iran overnight, celebrating the news that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had been killed during a day of coordinated U.S. and Israeli attacks.

The ayatollah’s death, after nearly 40 years of authoritarian rule, represented a historic shift for Iran’s theocratic regime. Many Iranians, inside and outside the country, rejoiced, even as the threat of more attacks by U.S. and Israeli forces cast a pall over some celebrations.

Landlines and cellphone service were down across Iran, making it difficult to gauge public sentiment in the nation of more than 90 million people as U.S. and Israeli forces struck targets for a second day. Early reports of the death toll in Iran suggested that more than 100 people had been killed in the first wave of strikes.

But in neighborhoods across Tehran, the capital, pockets of exuberance emerged. In video calls with The New York Times, three residents of Tehran showed the scenes unfolding in their neighborhoods: Large crowds of men and women dancing and cheering, shouting, “Woohoo, hurrah.” Drivers passing by honked their car horns. Fireworks lit up the sky and loud Persian dance music filled the streets. Many residents, from their windows and balconies, joined in a chant of “freedom, freedom.”

Sara, a 53-year-old resident of Tehran, who like others interviewed asked that her last name not be used for fear of retaliation, said in a phone call that when she heard on the news that Ayatollah Khamenei had been killed, she let out a scream and jumped up and down. Her husband started pacing and they hugged, she said.

“Then we bolted outside and shouted from the top of our lungs and laughed and danced with our neighbors,” Sara said. Just a month ago, she, her husband and daughter were among protesters who took to the streets in an uprising against the government. Security forces beat her and her husband with batons and sprayed tear gas in their eyes, she said.

For Iranian supporters of Ayatollah Khamenei who considered him a revered religious figure, watching the celebrations was difficult, they said on social media. But they were noticeably absent from the streets.

Ayatollah Khamenei, who had the final say in all government decisions in Iran, personally ordered security forces to use lethal force against protesters in January, leading to a massacre that rights groups say killed at least 7,000 people, with numbers expected to rise.

“Khamenei went to hell,” one man shouted from his rooftop on Saturday, according to a video posted on BBC Persian.

For families whose loved ones were killed or jailed under Ayatollah Khamenei, the news felt cathartic, many said. Dr. Mohsen Assadi Lari, a former senior official in the Iranian Ministry of Health, lost his son and daughter, both in their early 20s, when Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps shot down a Ukrainian Airlines passenger plane in 2020. On Saturday, he posted photographs of his children on his social media page with a message about freedom: “We will endure the winter, spring is near.”

In Abdanan, a Kurdish city in western Iran where the crackdown on protests was intense, young men and women cruised the streets after the announcement of the supreme leader’s death. They hung out of their car windows, showing victory signs and cheering.

“Tonight, Feb. 28, congratulations for our freedom,” said a voice narrating a video of the celebrations, which was verified by The Times. Parts of the video were already blurred.
Video

“Am I dreaming?” screamed a man in another video, also verified by The Times. “Ah! Hello to the new world. Ah!” The footage shows people tearing down a monument bearing a man’s silhouette, possibly Ayatollah Khamenei’s, at a roundabout in Galleh Dar, in Fars Province, as fires burned around them.
Video

People in Shiraz, a major Iranian city, were abandoning their cars for an impromptu dance party, whistling, cheering, clapping and screaming with joy. In many videos, celebrants joined together in a cheer that is typically reserved for weddings, symbolizing pure joy.

A video from Isfahan, another major city, in the south of Iran, shows at least a hundred people celebrating, many with their arms raised and waving white cloths. Cars can be heard honking their horns amid loud, jubilant cheering.

Iranians living abroad joined their families back home through video calls. Many sobbed from relief and happiness. Homayoun, an Iranian living in Paris, popped a bottle of champagne. Shadi, in Los Angeles, did shots with friends. Shirin, in Maryland, danced wildly at home to loud music.

“I am so happy,” Shirin said. “I don’t know what to do with myself. Is this real? Thank God I am alive to see this day.”

It remained unclear what would come next after Ayatollah Khamenei’s nearly four decades in power, whether a new system of government would take over or power would be transferred to successors as he had instructed before his death.

Video production by Dmitriy Khavin.

Video. Iranians take to the streets to celebrate Khamenei’s death

Video. Footage from social media showed people celebrating in the streets of the Iranian city of Kiraj late on Saturday after both the US and Israel claimed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed in their major aerial attack earlier in the day.

www.euronews.com

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

No plans to close Strait of Hormuz at this stage, Iran’s top diplomat says​

Iran targets German bases in Jordan, Iraq — magazine​

At least 150 tankers drop anchor in Persian Gulf — agency​