I'm sitting on the 'Holy Grail' system - How can I fund this?

BSD

Veteren member
3,819 985
To pin that down somewhat closer in this context then...

If you think life is hard and really complex and complicated and difficult and you really need to go through a lot of sweat, blood and tears to achieve your aims that's probably how it's going to go...

If you take life seriously enough but play it lightly with great belief in essential simplicity and faith in success and eventual outcomes that's also probably how it's going to play out...

If you think you need to adhere to the customs of the times and say stare into your smartphone all day long even when sitting down to dinner with someone or answer your emails hundreds of times a day then that's your choice but by no means a necessity to get where you want to go...

You can still do it the old fashioned way and limit noise right down to what's needed to stay in touch without appearing downright rude, or in the context of trading...

going in for the age old yet still entirely valid concept of buying pullbacks to a trend, either getting out after the first momentum push up, getting a higher winning percentage, OR holding for the duration of the trend, through the higher highs / higher lows, getting you bigger R:R's but lower winning percentages...

Has worked for all the oldtimers I got that from, is working for me since I started out in the late 90's, still is, and always will.

Simply because markets are nothing but the sum of the activities of it's participants, and no matter if people program a machine to act or trade themselves, it's still the beliefs that drive their actions, and people haven't changed anytime recently, people are still the same entities driven by fear and greed they've always been.

I really believe our minds create our reality.

TAke most peoplem struggling at everything, relationships, work, success, etc.

Main reason for that is they don't know where they want to in the first place, what to believe, and have no faith in themselves or outcomes.

Then you've got blessed by the Gods like Lawrie Inman, everything he does turns into gold, his amazing tarding success at a prop firm, moving from there, which everybody else awlays says is impossible, to not only some hedge fund, no, to Paul Tudor Jones outfit, being very successful at poker, making money with his winning racing horses, how many race horse owners end up ahead lol, that much luck in life isn't chance or luck.

Like attracts like, same with his new bsuiness partner Tudor Jones, everything he ever did turned to gold, he was an extremely successful broker aka salesman, then a very successful local, then his hedge fund just got up and exploded, etc.

My belief is it really down to if you think you can you can, or if you think you can't, you cannot.

It's your reality, you create it.
 

darktone

Veteren member
4,016 1,084
Originally Posted by random12345 View Post
Method > psychology.
Once you have a method you understand and have perfected then trading is just an effortless act of doing. Yes, in acquiring/ developing the method psychology is important, without it one cannot develop the method. But at the end, after you have gone through sorting your head out, it only comes down to the method, how good it is and how well you execute it.
I just cant agree here, from personal experience and what ive read.
You give 10 good traders a system has made good money over the last 2 years, they are just told to go and trade it as per instruction.
I be almost certain that after a year of trading it (time involved, size all being equal etc) youd get 10 different results along with 10 different explanations of why xyz did or didnt work. Why?
Or the trader is trading his own perfected method, and xyz happens to destabilize him emotionally, it doesnt have to be market related, actually imo, it doesnt have to anything related. If he is unaware of his instability, or is aware but chooses not to address it (self sabotage). Jesse Livermore (sorry random) would be the example.


Originally posted be me. :cheesy:
If this is true, by the same token, how do some people who have no logical reason to be so, become depressed?
I think the problem here is the word logical. Logic will address a persons conscious understanding of something, ignoring the subconscious. From my understanding depression I caused by a mismatch of the two sides of the brain. Logic will not resolve this problem.
Bad word choice by me i think. Logical / rational, as in the sense of someone who is stable looking on at someone who is unstable. Ill set the scene of this mini example.
Unstable is sat, head in hands, sat on a chair, at a table, in a dinning room,, obviously disturbed......looooong silence...... "LOOK! LOOK AT THAT F*****G CUPBOARD DOOR!! ITS ALWAYS F*****G OPEN.....ITS DOIN MY F*****G HEAD IN!!" Tears, shaking.. Stable, tries best to explain that door being open is no big deal, offers up a more rational view of the situation, tries to explain to unstable that they are deeply upset, that their thoughts are distorted and magnified leading them to feel deeply upset, attempts to demonstrate methods of contesting these distorted thoughts are rejected.
In the above example, its clear that the cupboard door being ajar is a big deal to them, that the upset for them is very real and at that moment emotionally consuming. Its clear to any rational person that its a nonsense.
You draw any parallel to trading you like. x losers in a row, missed trades, money left on table, market daring to do what u expect it not to. All of these events can effect folks differently, if allowed, distorted thoughts can spiral, not for the good.
My depression I now see as a gift, I became so desperate that I finally gave in to a good mates nagging, took him about six months to get my stubborn ass to read the book he suggested and about 3months after that (after another brief trip to hell) i finally implemented the tools. Revelation! In short, in order to feel anything you have to think it first. In order to counter distorted thinking you have to become aware of it, they usually reveal themselves for what they are pretty quick when written down (they can get stupid, trust me on that!), Its then easy to counter them with more a more realistic, rational, logical view.


Guilty ur honor. :cheesy:
Side note: If you are a smart cookie, have been through your years of schooling to highest level, learning that in order to succeed you have to be right!. How hard would it be for that kind of mindset exist in the uncertainty of the markets?
I would say that those who are successful have exactly that mindset. But for many being right is an attachment to an expected outcome and clouds your thinking. Even in business there is no certainty. One just performs to the best of his understanding and ability. Sometimes the results are fruitful but not always. This failure will not sway the business person from engaging further.
I agree that there is no certainty, id go further and say theres no certainty in anything we do.
"This failure will not sway the business person from engaging further." I dunno mate, I know a few business people who didnt last a year in the markets before they chopped it in." 2 of them were better educated than me, have to wait till the fat lady sings to see if they were right or not.


If you listen or speak to the most successful people, regardless of what field they are in, you will notice they all speak the same language, all come from the same perspective.
English maybe? ;)

Good discussing


Ooo on a different note,whilst writing this melarky im about 150 pts to the good in dax atm, now where shall i takem? I needs to finds me a smart person!
 

MajorMagnuM

Legendary member
9,284 888
Either you benchmark to see what is possible, or define your own objectives.

Then you seek to emulate or achieve that.

You don't get to fly to the moon by listening to everyone who said it isn't possible.

You don't get to run 100 m in under 10 seconds by listening to everyone who said it isn't possible.

Jack Welch didn't turn General Electric into one of the most successful firms in the world by listening to all the naysayers, no, he did it the only way you can achieve sthg like that, by setting what he called stretch goals, goals that at first glance seemed impossible to achieve, particularly for the majority of negative naysayers permeating most walks of life, and through staying the course and with full commitment he did that, he achieved his vision of GE becoming Top Dog.

Guys let's face it, most people will never earn more in markets than they lose, that's the same everywhere in life where not many get what they want, but let's also face it, trading is about simple principles, every single successful person I've talked with or many of the people I've cited stress the fact that their trading methods aren't rocket science, the difference between success in trading and lack of it is mainly down to laziness , lack of 100% commitment, lack of 100% focus, ability to handle losing streaks with ease and detachment, and plain most people preferring to be right over making money.

What turned my trading around, and I'm liviong from this, trading from home, is a book that's 100 years old, Reminscences of a stock operator.

:LOL:

yep. I dont think Beckers parents told him to stop hitting that ball against the garage door.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BSD

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
yep. I dont think Beckers parents told him to stop hitting that ball against the garage door.

His neighbours might have.

BSD, which has caused more damage to accounts do you think: Telling someone that you need to be more realistic about your expectations, or telling people stories about profitable outliers and telling them you can do it too and turn 10k into 10 million?

If anyone believes in risk control being the most important then why not emphasise the downside rather than the upside. Why talk about Dan Zanger, why not talk about Victor Neiderhoffer blowing up, or Jessie Livermore or Richard Dennis? EDIT:- have just realised Dan Zanger did blow up...3 times. Perhaps worth highlighting that he blew his inheritance, and started with 100k, before miraculaously turning that 10k into millions.

Because these were good traders, perhaps greats, far better than almost any retail trader coming to the game, and there are a lot more of this type than the outliers previously mentioned who have crashed. And these are the ones we know of, survivorship bias ensures that we don't hear so much about the masses of losers. They don't have wikipedia pages.

Why not links about LTCM, Barings, Lehman Bros.? It seems a bit one-sided (focused on the upside only) to list all these great successes, don't you think? Also, are these achievements repeatable by the traders do you think? If not repeatable, what does that make them?

Being positive, setting high standards and goals are great things. But being realistic is necessary.
 
Last edited:

BSD

Veteren member
3,819 985
Shakone, lol, just wrote you a reply but my browser crashed.

Get back to ya tomorrow.

:)
 
  • Like
Reactions: Shakone

barjon

Legendary member
10,705 1,809
There will always be a lucky guy or two who make a killing at roulette. The wise ones stop there and write a book about it . the unwise eventually give it back.

Luck plays its part in some of the trading stars. Darvas, for example, happened to hit on Kent (invented filter ciggies) and Xerox (I think) just as they were taking off and shooting up like rockets. His method may be sound enough, but most of the $2million (His book "How I made $2 Million on the Stock Exchange" came from those two. You can't knock his sticking with them though.

I don't think many repeat their feats and no surprise some turn to books and "training".
 

tar

Legendary member
10,443 1,313
Especially in trading being overly optimistic is disastrous , in fact most of traders failure come from this area , anyway newbies are already pipe dreaming so no worries there they don't need our encouragement ,what they need is more realistic talk something related to reality , dreaming is good but not in trading ...
 
  • Like
Reactions: sonofcablemonster

BSD

Veteren member
3,819 985
OK hope my browser stays with me this time haha.

Shakone, I totally agree, being realistic is necessary.

But at the same time my firm belief is that blowing up or not achieving your goals has far more to do with lack of discipline in following the rules of your system than anything else, going in for revenge trading, overtrading both frequency and position sizing wise, wanting to be right over wanting to make money, and severely overestimating what is possible in the short term while severely underestimating what is possible in the long term.

An Analysis of the Profiles and Motivations of Habitual Commodity Speculators

The focus of this study is the habitual speculator in commodity futures markets. The speculator's activity broadens a market, creates essential liquidity, and performs an irreplaceable pricing function. Working knowledge of the profiles and motivations of habitual speculators is essential to both market theorist and policy makers. Responses to a 73 question survey were collected directly from retail commodity brokers with offices in Alabama. Each questionnaire recorded information on an individual commodity client who had traded for an extended period of time.

The typical trader studied is a married, white male, age 52. He is affluent and well educated. He is a self-employed business owner who can recover from financial setbacks. He is a politically right wing conservative involved in the political process.

He assumes a good deal of risk in most phases of his life. He is both an aggressive investor and an active gambler.

This trader does not consider preservation of his commodity capital to be a very high trading priority.

As a result, he rarely uses stop loss orders.

He wins more frequently than he loses (over 51% of the time) but is an overall net loser in dollar terms.

In spite of recurring trading losses, he has never made any substantial change in his basic trading style.


To this trader, whether he won or lost on a particular trade is more important than the size of the win or loss.

Thus he consistently cuts his profits short while letting his losses run.


He also worries more about missing a move in the market by being on the sidelines than about losing by being on the wrong side of a market move; i.e., being in the action is more important than the financial consequences.

Participating brokers confirmed that for the majority of the speculators studied, the primary motivation for continuous trading is the recreational utility derived largely from having a market position.



THAT is why traders lose or never achieve their goals.

Net profitable trading is not rocket science. It's about having the will, absolute faith in outcome, and consistency and iron discipline to do what needs to be done that makes the difference between those who make it and those who don't.

Dan Zanger or Peter L Brandt, the latter who started out at Commodities Corp with Seykota, Kovner, Marcus et al, both attribute their eventual success once they'd learned discipline down to simple, classical charting patterns out of Schabacker, Edwards and Magee that have withstood the test of time through the ages.

Our twi who is now at a hedge fund started at Enron before he went to a prop shop and was talking about his colleagues there, they weren't compounding, they were keeping their funds under 50K but making anything from 20 to over 50% / month out of that.

To be very blunt and honest here:

If someone wants to become a short term trader, but is not able to - on average- generate returns of a minimum of 10% / month on a small account they are simply in the wrong job.

Again, it's not the method.

Every successful trader I know has a pretty simple method, be it mean reversion or trend trading, the two essential possibilities in directional trading.

All I do is look at breakouts or pullbacks in the direction of major trends, that's it, along with letting my winners run and cutting my losers and being highly disciplined and sticking to strict money management rules.

Twi was going on and aon about the necessity of keeping it simple also:

Simplify, simplify, there is no complex secret out there.

---

I just look at daily to 30min timeframe charts, with most emphasis on 30min and see previous highs/lows/trends/retracements/breakouts and candlestick suggestions. Have a slowstoch on there too but don't use as signal for anything just to normalise the price to show overbought/oversold.

---

I do indeed mean simplistic. The basic rules are simple and I think anybody can grasp them, after that it is about sticking to them.

It's not the coming up with what needs to be done that's rocket science anymore than understanding what buttons need to be pushed to lose weight or exercise on a regular basis.

It's the discipline to stick to what needs to be done that's the thing, and accepting that losses and even streaks of em are part and parcel of trading what makes or breaks traders.

And then the difference between someone like twis colleagues making a good to great living from trading to those that go on to become seriously rich through becoming longer term and thsu being able to compound again isn't down to the latter having discovered a superior holy grail, they're doing what they always did, but just with more money.

Some can't handle the longer term, some have a glass ceiling of numer of cointracts / stocks whatever they can deal with before getting a heart attack, but none of it is rocket science.

If you can make 10% a month, you CAN will yourself to start compounding that IF that is what you truly want.

I posted something here once about a guy who won a trading championship at the then ABN AMRO with 55 000 % plus in ONE month.

Ok that was play money, but he moved on to a direct access broker, and is a millionaire by now, and he only graduated a few years ago, and his system is the essence of simplicity, and he is no gunslinger betting the ranch either. Just a good robust system coupled with good robust compounding and a burning desire and absolute faith in himslef to do what needs to be done to get to where he wants to go.

The biggest problem is that most people don't know what they want, don't have the will, nor the faith in themselves, and not the discipline to follow through.

Christ writing this lot up I'vemissed some really great moves on the Dax now lol !
 
  • Like
Reactions: darktone

barjon

Legendary member
10,705 1,809
............If anyone believes in risk control being the most important then why not emphasise the downside rather than the upside. .............


People do until they are blue in the face, but few listen and take heed in practice.

The most pernicious thing about trading is that price does often "come back" to get people out of trouble which encourages people to hang on in hope long after the rationale for their trade has gone up in smoke. One day, though......................:devilish:
 

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
OK hope my browser stays with me this time haha.

Shakone, I totally agree, being realistic is necessary.

But at the same time my firm belief is that blowing up or not achieving your goals has far more to do with lack of discipline in following the rules of your system than anything else, going in for revenge trading, overtrading both frequency and position sizing wise, wanting to be right over wanting to make money, and severely overestimating what is possible in the short term while severely underestimating what is possible in the long term.

An Analysis of the Profiles and Motivations of Habitual Commodity Speculators

The focus of this study is the habitual speculator in commodity futures markets. The speculator's activity broadens a market, creates essential liquidity, and performs an irreplaceable pricing function. Working knowledge of the profiles and motivations of habitual speculators is essential to both market theorist and policy makers.Responses to a 73 question survey were collected directly from retail commodity brokers with offices in Alabama. Each questionnaire recorded information on an individual commodity client who had traded for an extended period of time.

The typical trader studied is a married, white male, age 52. He is affluent and well educated. He is a self-employed business owner who can recover from financial setbacks. He is a politically right wing conservative involved in the political process.

He assumes a good deal of risk in most phases of his life. He is both an aggressive investor and an active gambler.

This trader does not consider preservation of his commodity capital to be a very high trading priority.

As a result, he rarely uses stop loss orders.

He wins more frequently than he loses (over 51% of the time) but is an overall net loser in dollar terms.

In spite of recurring trading losses, he has never made any substantial change in his basic trading style.


To this trader, whether he won or lost on a particular trade is more important than the size of the win or loss.

Thus he consistently cuts his profits short while letting his losses run.


He also worries more about missing a move in the market by being on the sidelines than about losing by being on the wrong side of a market move; i.e., being in the action is more important than the financial consequences.

Participating brokers confirmed that for the majority of the speculators studied, the primary motivation for continuous trading is the recreational utility derived largely from having a market position.



THAT is why traders lose or never achieve their goals.

Net profitable trading is not rocket science. It's about having the will, absolute faith in outcome, and consistency and iron discipline to do what needs to be done that makes the difference between those who make it and those who don't.

Dan Zanger or Peter L Brandt, the latter who started out at Commodities Corp with Seykota, Kovner, Marcus et al, both attribute their eventual success once they'd learned discipline down to simple, classical charting patterns out of Schabacker, Edwards and Magee that have withstood the test of time through the ages.

Our twi who is now at a hedge fund started at Enron before he went to a prop shop and was talking about his colleagues there, they weren't compounding, they were keeping their funds under 50K but making anything from 20 to over 50% / month out of that.

To be very blunt and honest here:

If someone wants to become a short term trader, but is not able to - on average- generate returns of a minimum of 10% / month on a small account they are simply in the wrong job.

Again, it's not the method.

Every successful trader I know has a pretty simple method, be it mean reversion or trend trading, the two essential possibilities in directional trading.

All I do is look at breakouts or pullbacks in the direction of major trends, that's it, along with letting my winners run and cutting my losers and being highly disciplined and sticking to strict money management rules.

Twi was going on and aon about the necessity of keeping it simple also:

Simplify, simplify, there is no complex secret out there.

---

I just look at daily to 30min timeframe charts, with most emphasis on 30min and see previous highs/lows/trends/retracements/breakouts and candlestick suggestions. Have a slowstoch on there too but don't use as signal for anything just to normalise the price to show overbought/oversold.

---

I do indeed mean simplistic. The basic rules are simple and I think anybody can grasp them, after that it is about sticking to them.

It's not the coming up with what needs to be done that's rocket science anymore than understanding what buttons need to be pushed to lose weight or exercise on a regular basis.

It's the discipline to stick to what needs to be done that's the thing, and accepting that losses and even streaks of em are part and parcel of trading what makes or breaks traders.

And then the difference between someone like twis colleagues making a good to great living from trading to those that go on to become seriously rich through becoming longer term and thsu being able to compound again isn't down to the latter having discovered a superior holy grail, they're doing what they always did, but just with more money.

Some can't handle the longer term, some have a glass ceiling of numer of cointracts / stocks whatever they can deal with before getting a heart attack, but none of it is rocket science.

If you can make 10% a month, you CAN will yourself to start compounding that IF that is what you truly want.

I posted something here once about a guy who won a trading championship at the then ABN AMRO with 55 000 % plus in ONE month.

Ok that was play money, but he moved on to a direct access broker, and is a millionaire by now, and he only graduated a few years ago, and his system is the essence of simplicity, and he is no gunslinger betting the ranch either. Just a good robust system coupled with good robust compounding and a burning desire and absolute faith in himslef to do what needs to be done to get to where he wants to go.

The biggest problem is that most people don't know what they want, don't have the will, nor the faith in themselves, and not the discipline to follow through.

Christ writing this lot up I'vemissed some really great moves on the Dax now lol !

So you must be a millionaire from trading then BSD. Well done. I'm not there yet.

I remember the 55,000% thread. Some screenshots were uploaded, but I remember thinking those screenshots could not have been that representative of his trading, as the moves he was capturing were so small, with losers larger than his winners, so that commissions must have absorbed most of the profits.

Sadly the screenshots aren't there anymore so I can't check. Glad he's a millionaire too now, although I bet it took longer than a month when it was real money :LOL:

If I remember correctly, one of the wizards said that one of the important things Ed Seykota showed him was that you could actually make a million, i.e. it was different to see it first hand being accomplished rather than just being a hypothetical goal.

GTTY
 
Last edited:

BSD

Veteren member
3,819 985
Nah I'm what's called a slow developer :LOL:

Yeah the screenshots aren't there anymore coz ABN Amro sold their marketindex platform - which was based on Oanda btw - out to Royal Bank of Scotland but because of their financial difficukties they've closed that down now too.

ANd the guy running that German forum closed that down too coz some lawyer started harassing him about people uploading pics from the web and copyright and wanted huge cease or desist fines which the forum owner decided just wasn't worth the hassle.

Pity as it was a small forum but with some really great guys on there.

C'est la vie !

I don't remember the exact details from then, but Maggi, the guy we're talking about who won that ABN Amro trading cup, is essentially a scalper still, ie true, larger losses than wins, but high winning percentage.

He can't keep compounding that forever obviously, but he's run it up pretty well must admit without any envy, just pure respect for that boys talent and balls.

Well ok ya know what I mean.

:LOL:
 

BSD

Veteren member
3,819 985
If I remember correctly, one of the wizards said that one of the important things Ed Seykota showed him was that you could actually make a million, i.e. it was different to see it first hand being accomplished rather than just being a hypothetical goal.

GTTY

And that is so true !!!

That's one my main points,at the end it's down to trust and faith in yourself, and that can definitely be helped along if you've seen it being done !!!

And oh yeah, Maggis real life results are obviously NOWHERE near his trading cup results hehe, and it's taken him several years to getting where he is now.

:)
 

tar

Legendary member
10,443 1,313
I don't remember the exact details from then, but Maggi, the guy we're talking about who won that ABN Amro trading cup, is essentially a scalper still, ie true, larger losses than wins, but high winning percentage.

He can't keep compounding that forever obviously, but he's run it up pretty well must admit without any envy, just pure respect for that boys talent and balls.

Well ok ya know what I mean.

:LOL:

A millionaire ? thats good , do you know what he's trading and what's his initial balance and how many years it took him ?
 

BSD

Veteren member
3,819 985
Tar, when he was doing the ABN Amro thing he was just a student and not loaded, doing well trading, but by no means rich yet.

Iirc he said somewhere that he started out with sthg like 10 or 20K, but several years down the road living the lifestyle now.

Here's another guy who started at a bank, went solo at the end of the 90's with also around 20K, also doing north of 20% / month, and also living the lifestyle now with Porsches and great flat and whatnots.

Met the guy at some trading event, he's the real deal.

Unfortunately in German, but anyway you can see another scalper in action:

http://www.daf.fm/video/daf-reportage-daytrading---giovanni-cicivelli-41446686.html
 
  • Like
Reactions: tar

tar

Legendary member
10,443 1,313
Tar, when he was doing the ABN Amro thing he was just a student and not loaded, doing well trading, but by no means rich yet.

Iirc he said somewhere that he started out with sthg like 10 or 20K, but several years down the road living the lifestyle now.

What he's trading ?
 
 
AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

But it's thanks to our sponsors that access to Trade2Win remains free for all. By viewing our ads you help us pay our bills, so please support the site and disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock