If you're bored...

[shadowninja]

... you can still trade today...

 

[Masquerade]

You're no better than drug pushers. Shame on you

 

[trader_dante]

lol Shadow.

I was just having a conversation with another trader and decided it was a rare thing (and perhaps terribly sad) that we were unanimous in our thinking that Saturday is the worst day of the week and Monday is the best ;-)

 

[shadowninja]

You're no better than drug pushers. Shame on you

Yep. Liquidity FTW. Come on, T2Wers, have a go. Lots of opportunities.

 

[shadowninja]

lol Shadow.

I was just having a conversation with another trader and decided it was a rare thing (and perhaps terribly sad) that we were unanimous in our thinking that Saturday is the worst day of the week and Monday is the best ;-)

Yep. I don't want to go out just for the sake of it (I tend to keep myself to myself and prefer to use the usual public facilities on weekdays when they are not packed with families).

Betfair makes my weekends busy.

Now, who wants a free £25?

 

[China Diapers]

I too am working on a consistent way of extracting money from Betfair, I know there are opportunities.

 

[shadowninja]

Nice one. I trade match odds. Slowly growing the account. Still make the occasional noob errors but it keeps the mind going on an otherwise boring Saturday.

 

[wackypete2]

And I though I was addicted. You guys make me feel like an amateur!

Peter

 

[China Diapers]

Nice one. I trade match odds. Slowly growing the account. Still make the occasional noob errors but it keeps the mind going on an otherwise boring Saturday.

Yes I also bet on match odds, that's where the liquidity is.

My approach is to catch outliers (as I call them), back teams which go behind where the odds are high enough and there is enough time for them to make a come back. I don't take form into consideration, I will back Wolves against Man U after a 6 game losing streak. The theory is these upsets happen more than people realise and are overpriced, Schalke comeback vs Inter recently for example, or Newcastles comeback from 4 - 0 down to draw against the Woolwich Wonderers a while back.

I have a guy writing me a java app which scans matches simultaneously and bets when the criteria are met. Looking good so far apart from it freezes every couple of hours. And one of the things I missed in the planning stages is there are a lot more games on Betfair than I realised, so I get bets placed on the South Korean Womans u21 League. Whether that's a good or bad thing remains to be seen.

 

[China Diapers]

Action shot. I am very excited about it.

 

[shadowninja]

Yep, match odds gives me the liquidity I need. So you are placing bets and trading out upon a goal, then? I tried that but couldn't find the right games... the goals would happen far too late so it'd be 1-1 in the 90th minute and the odds would be too high.

http://www.futbol24.com/Live/ not good enough for you??

 

[shadowninja]

And I though I was addicted. You guys make me feel like an amateur!

Peter

Gambling's only a problem when you're losing.

 

[China Diapers]

I am placing small bets at high odds, winners are not frequent and hedging would only decrease the size of a winner when it does materialise, so I just take my losses as losses. Let's say I am taking min 100:1, I need to win 1 in a hundred to break even.

 

[shadowninja]

Hm. I tried this. I even tried to restrict my bets to major teams/leagues, backing the favourite if they conceded one goal in the first quarter... then laying the underdog if they scored in the first quarter. My thinking was that with superior coaching/training, the likes of Arsenal and Bayern Munich would easily claw back the goal and win. Over about 100 bets, I was slightly down - efficient markets.

Proper trading seems to be the only way I've been able to continually grow my account.

I've been doing the £20 Challenge on Pistonheads. I might start a blog on here just for sports traders.

 

[China Diapers]

My point is the completley unexpected happens more than expected, how can you predict newcastle coming back from 4 goals down against the ****, and the next weekend west ham coming back from 3 goals down. And is just the epl.

I don't believe it is an efficient marlet, when a team goes a goal up the masses back them, the other team becomes better valuie.

 

[China Diapers]

Also, the better odds, as far as my approach goes, are not on the bigger leagues. Maybe those south korea womans u21 games will come good

 

[China Diapers]

Anyway I am going to start a journal of my results, will post here when its started.

 

[shadowninja]

I agree that the smaller leagues are certainly less efficient but if you watch the games, there are bots playing just outside of the LTP where the inefficiency lies and they keep things fairly efficient. I called one Jonny 800 after the robot from Short Circuit. He is on every match after a goal is scored. You can play with him - just drop £20 below him and he'll jump over you.

Do some research into Soccer Mystic - you can buy software that predicts the odds after any event.

 

[China Diapers]

Ok, I don't think we are talking about quite the same things, the price of gold has gone far beyond what most people feel is fair value but efficient market enthusiasts would be crazy to short it.

I am at the london marathon drinking pints, and my posts are sure to become increasingly nonsensicle so I will agree to disagree, until the next betfair thread =)

 

[MajorDutch]

Yes I also bet on match odds, that's where the liquidity is.

My approach is to catch outliers (as I call them), back teams which go behind where the odds are high enough and there is enough time for them to make a come back. I don't take form into consideration, I will back Wolves against Man U after a 6 game losing streak. The theory is these upsets happen more than people realise and are overpriced, Schalke comeback vs Inter recently for example, or Newcastles comeback from 4 - 0 down to draw against the Woolwich Wonderers a while back.

I have a guy writing me a java app which scans matches simultaneously and bets when the criteria are met. Looking good so far apart from it freezes every couple of hours. And one of the things I missed in the planning stages is there are a lot more games on Betfair than I realised, so I get bets placed on the South Korean Womans u21 League. Whether that's a good or bad thing remains to be seen.

your approach here is very similar to Taleb. The human mind cannot help itself in mispricing unlikely events. I would be very interested to see the results of taking on many long odds bets. You would need a very large sample size though.