If you must buy a trading system...

[tss42]

Dear New Trader
Flick through the Market Wizard books and you'll find dozens of system traders (or mechanical traders, whatever you call them) who made many 100s of millions.

You haven't.

Don't assume you know everything.

PS. Is trawling message boards day and night part of 'working hard on trading'? Just curious.

 

[dbphoenix]

Dear New Trader
Flick through the Market Wizard books and you'll find dozens of system traders (or mechanical traders, whatever you call them) who made many 100s of millions.

And how many of them are selling those systems over the internet?

 

[tss42]

And how many of them are selling those systems over the internet?

Not many. But then nor did they spend their life on internet messageboards.

 

[dbphoenix]

Not many.

Who, exactly?

 

[tss42]

Heard of Linda Raschke?

 

[dbphoenix]

Heard of Linda Raschke?

Why yes, tss, I believe I have. But she gives hers away.

Is that it?

Oh, and by the way, your attempts at skewering people for their presence on message boards is just a bit blunted by your own.

 

[tss42]

Does having an internet chatroom as a paid service form part of giving away?

I am on a messageboard but then I am not claiming to be mr know it all and not exactly trying put everyone else down, am I?

 

[tss42]

Anyway, I am done with this thread. You want to have the last word? All yours.

 

[dbphoenix]

Does having an internet chatroom as a paid service form part of giving away?

Clearly you haven't done your research. In any case, if that's all you can come up with, what the "wizards" do or don't do is irrelevant to the topic under discussion.

I am on a messageboard but then I am not claiming to be mr know it all and not exactly trying put everyone else down, am I?

Well, yes, as a matter of fact, you are. Sorry.

 

[hot_property]

I recently brought a trading system from ELMTRADER it has performed very badly and I lost 50% of my capital.. The thing is that the calculations were wrong and thus transfered into the signals wrongly! You should only develop your own systems dont trust anyones work!

 

[new_trader]

Dear New Trader
Flick through the Market Wizard books and you'll find dozens of system traders (or mechanical traders, whatever you call them) who made many 100s of millions.

You haven't.

Don't assume you know everything.

PS. Is trawling message boards day and night part of 'working hard on trading'? Just curious.

Is trawling message boards day and night part of 'working hard on trading'?

Initially, yes. Now I actually do it just to keep myself occupied whilst waiting for the perfect trade. I learned a great deal from one of the members on this board, and a good deal from others. I haven’t read that Market Wizards book but I am considering writing one of my own to sell, oh, and a few trading system as well. Seems like easy money to me.

 

[temptrader]

@new_trader, temptrader,

my approach isn't fundamental. I think there are many ways to play the markets, whether you use discretionary or systematic trading.

Using strictly systematic trading has the same input of time and effort, but for the developer and not for the (potential) buyer of the system.

Monte Carlo Simulation methods are only an add-on to the conventional (systematic) system development process, which can lead to a more robust system setup. I described this in a Traders' article a year ago:
http://www.zentrader.de/mcs_article_traders2007.pdf

And it's clear that there's no 100% reliability in trading. There's always the possibility of a "black swan":
Amazon.com: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Books

bye,
zentrader

You have something to sell. I don't - and never will. Systematic trading can take all of your emotions out of the equation if you follow blindly. But if you are doing this then you have no understanding of what's really going on and we have the case of the blind leading the blind. And if anyone sees this as a way to make money, then they deserve to loss their money.

Statistical methods have their place in science, especially medicine, when used to test new drugs and effectiveness of treatments and surgical procedures, because EXPLICIT understanding of the situation at hand is NOT possible. If explicit understand is possible, you don't need to base effectiveness on statistical results. Read the latter comment very carefully to see if you understand what I'm getting at.

I've looked at the Taleb book and I disagree with some of it. And if you know what you know you will realise that some "swans" are not actually black, even though they are made to "look" black - oops, better not let the cat out of the bag there.

Taleb's book is for the layman, there is nothing there that is mind blowing or you can't work out for yourself if you have the kind of background that I have. It makes good copy for popularizers of science and nothing more.

 

[Mathemagician]

Systematic trading can take all of your emotions out of the equation if you follow blindly.

Nobody who has traded systematically for any length of time will agree with this. The emotions are different, but definitely still there.

jj

 

[temptrader]

Nobody who has traded systematically for any length of time will agree with this. The emotions are different, but definitely still there.

jj

jj,

I did state "if" in the sentence. That is a big "if" for most people of course.

 

[nine]

One warning here guys. (No, I don't mean just the last two posts.)

It is clear that a number of you have views on System/Discretionary trading that are divergent.

Anyone reading the thread can get a view of each of your perspectives and the extent to which each of you is personalizing it. This isn't that american board so stop now ... no further responses are needed. There is no need for further argument on Taleb and his grey, black, white and purple swans ... it's a book well worth getting out of the library and reading to get one's thinking going whether or not everything in it is presented evenly and 100% accurately and without (just a touch of) arrogance.

Calm the argument please or I'll have to go through and clean up your old posts and issue some infractions (and I haven't figured out how to do that yet so I could accidentally ban your ID for life). Please keep the posts on the original topic and without the counter punches.

 

[Crap Buddist]

hmmm whats the problem with system vendors and or head PHUCKS? its good for the biz ? traders will and do PHUCK intentionally over people everyday with their sole intent on being Rob those PHUCKERS....

Its worse than taking money from an old age pensioner, but, thats capitalism, anyone with a problem with it can always go and bash license plates in a monestary for 3 decades and think about whats pure and right and ... whatever..

if you want to flog or buy a system do it, if you want to PHUCK over someone in the markets do it... who is right or wrong ?

all about robbing thy neighbour....... :clap::clap:

 

[Mathemagician]

jj,

I did state "if" in the sentence. That is a big "if" for most people of course.

I did see that. Even if following blindly, emotions still run high.

jj

 

[charliechan]

Systematic trading can take all of your emotions out of the equation if you follow blindly. .

i disagree too mm.

if the systematic trader goes through a larger than expected drawdown than the testing/building suggested, simply because vol or trend have changed dramatically vs test data, then that will cause emotion - perhaps the feeling of lack of confidence in the system and then ultimately action - find/build another model. as it's ditched, it starts to work again (perhaps?). that causes more emotion...

 

[PKFFW]

I don't get this: if he/she trades it everyday why sell it to anyone? Nobody gives away money for free (apart from charitable organizations and the odd anomalies here and there). Or else they could be using you as their guinea pig so they feel that you're part of the experiment too . . . Only those that sell something like this have a deep insecurity about the system itself........

Oh I love it when someone states their own opinion as if it were the undeniable truth of the universe.

The above is nothing but your own opinion.

I know a number of people who give away money for free. Quite substantial amounts of money too. So much so that I'd be willing to bet the amounts are far more than you or I make in many years.

In fact it has been my experience that many wealthy successful people share the common trait of generosity. Of course not all do and of course the ones that do not are the ones the media focus on. Miserly, selfish old scrooge is a far better news story than the good smaritan in todays world.

The fact that you would not sell or give away your methods is not proof that no one esle would. It is simply a reflection upon you and how you would act if you ever get to a consistently profitable trading state. There are many reasons why someone who successfully trades may wish to give their method away or sell it. Not the least of which is the satisfaction earned from helping others to take control of their financial future.

...I can nearly 100% guarantee that anyone who sells systems never do full time trading to consistent profitability. ......

....And if you were making that much money you won't be shouting to everyone about it..

Again, nothing but your own opinion.

Again, do your own research. But then, we are assuming that the person selling is honest? Why should he be, what's in it for him to be? He can give you even more BS in the process to confuse you....

You are assuming the seller is not honest. That is just as much an assumption as is assuming they are honest. Your assumption may serve your circumstances better than the other assumption but it is no more valid or based in fact.

I agree with doing your own research though.

You never get your money back period. Why would the seller bother to stump up money in advertising, promoting etc. . . and make himself/herself open to a possibility of all that hard work going to waste? Nah, they'll get you in the small print.

Again an assumption stated as fact. Again a reflection upon how you would act in that given circumstance.

I personally have bought a "trading method" in the past. Upon the completion of the 90 day money back guarantee I returned the material and received a full refund(minus postage) no questions asked.

I would agree it is rare that refunds are honoured, however your assertion that you never get your money back is not valid.

If anyone is thinking of buying a system my advice is DON'T - none of them work. Look for the free ones and play around with them with paper trades if you are curious (and they are nothing but pieces of curiosity), but ALL of them are sold by people who ultimately cannot trade (or think it's too risky to put their own money on the line), which is why they are for sale.

Again nothing in this part but your own opinion.

As a biological mathematician I have a cynical view of life in general, and the one thing that the natural world has taught me is that nothing is ever given away for "free". In human life, money is the one resource that separates you from having a 9 - 5 obligation 5 days a week, and a life of time mostly on your own terms. The steps to get to the latter situation is NEVER given away "freely" or so easily.

The highlighted portion would be obvious to anyone reading your posts. It must be said again though, your cynical opinion is not fact.

I agree that the vast majority of system sellors out there on the internet are snake oil sales men. Does that mean they all are? No.

By all means urge others not to buy trading systems or methods. Just realise that the reasons you are giving and obviously believe in so pationately are nothing more than your opinions and therefore may not prove true, helpful or valid to others.

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[PKFFW]

I think a distinction needs to be made between buying a "system" or "method" and buying a course that purports to teach one how to trade.

The former, I would agree, is generally a waste of money. Not necessarily always, but generally.

The latter can also be a waste of money in many cases. However, if one does ones due dilligence there is no reason why the latter could not be a very economical and practical way to learn the mechanics of trading. It would, of course, then be up to the individual to practice the mechanics enough to be competent and profitable at trading.

The car analogy is an apt one for both these situations.

Buying the former would be much like riding in a taxi. You must trust the driver to get you to your destination safely. You have no control over how he gets you there, what route he takes, what speed he drives at, whether he crashes or not etc etc. Riding in a taxi will not likely teach you much about how to drive. You may(though even this is unlikely) pick up the basic idea by watching the driver but you are very unlikely to then be able to drive the car yourself should the need arise.

Buying the latter would be much like going to a driving instructor and having them teach you how to drive. The instructor can teach you the mechanics of driving. How to operate the clutch, brake, accelerator etc. What the road signs mean, how to indicate, what dangers to be aware of etc. At the end of the course you should have some basic competancy in driving. It would then be up to the individual to practice those mechanics until they reach a level of proficiency they are happy with.

Cheers,
PKFFW