I honestly cannot recommend that anyone develop, or follow up an interest in trading.

oildaytrader said:
Van K Tharp "At the most basic level, people must trade by processing information. Unfortunately, we're not very efficient information processors. However, I think most of those biases can be summarized by realizing that trading/investing are very simple processes and we human beings try to make it into something much more complex. Those biases are all about adding complexity to the world."

http://www.iitm.com/consulting/vkt_interview.htm

With this handicap ,how can discretionary traders be consistently profitable?
Click to expand...

Don't quote a person that can't trade and try to extrapolate it as a general rule :sneaky:

p.s Trading is boring **** and i'm not a loser FWIW
 
JTrader said:
Hi

As of the end of today, i have asked to be banned from T2W for an "indefinate" period, so that i can be totally focused on trading, without any internet distraction/s that i may wander to in moments of boredom, that then cause me to make mistakes with my trades.

I now have what i consider to be a very solid methodology, that is as good as it can be, more or less.

This has taken years of painstaking work to develop. And from time to time, my inability to execute the plan correctly, can drive me up the wall.

For reasons of health, safety, financial security & mental well-being, I really could not & would not recommend to anyone that they develop or follow up an interest in trading - no matter how much they hate their day job, how bright they are, how motivated they are etc.

As it stands, trading is probably the worst thing that i have developed an interest in. If i make a small fortune over the next 1-2 years, it will redeem itself & perhaps become the best thing that i ever became interested. But at the moment, this is just speculation.

When someone asks me about what i do, i am reluctant to go into detail, to sound enthusiastic etc etc. Because i know that trading is a BRUTAL event. Failure to implement a near perfect methodology correctly can result in heavy losses.

Sorry to any newbies, that i cannot sound more inspiring about the subject of trading. But this message is meant as a harsh warning to anyone who has just developed an interest in trading.

Dreams of champagne & ferarris entice you in, but you really do not realise the quagmire that you are getting yourself involved in. This rabbit hole runs EXTREMELY deep.

If you are married, an obsession with trading could quite easily ruin your marriage. If you are single, it could really adversely affect your social life etc.

I'm sorry that in my final posts i cannot sound more encouraging regarding trading. However, I hope that my realisticness is of more practical benefit.


Be warned :!:
:)

See you all on the other side!
:)
Click to expand...


Did you benefit from the T2W pool? I heard Wasp and Schwager were getting it on for a new trading book.
 
Maybe we could run an OHCL chart on traders' confidence, back-test it, paper-trade it, apply candlesticks, look for Dojis and Moo Rivers, Powerplays and chickenshacks. When it comes right down to it, we're all in the game because it's giving us something.

Money, excitement, tragedy, a reason to spend the night in front of a PC instead of talking to your partner...who knows?

Point is, we're getting SOMETHING out of it, or we wouldn't be doing it. Very few people spend this many hours nailing their thumbs to a plank, yanno?
 
dimsdaletraders said:
Maybe we could run an OHCL chart on traders' confidence, back-test it, paper-trade it, apply candlesticks, look for Dojis and Moo Rivers, Powerplays and chickenshacks. When it comes right down to it, we're all in the game because it's giving us something.

Money, excitement, tragedy, a reason to spend the night in front of a PC instead of talking to your partner...who knows?

Point is, we're getting SOMETHING out of it, or we wouldn't be doing it. Very few people spend this many hours nailing their thumbs to a plank, yanno?
Click to expand...

Well, for the quoted 90%, it's the hope of making a breakthrough and that probably keeps them going. Maybe they stop when they get bored? Or do they stop only when they've blown up their account?
 
shadowninja said:
Well, for the quoted 90%, it's the hope of making a breakthrough and that probably keeps them going. Maybe they stop when they get bored? Or do they stop only when they've blown up their account?
Click to expand...

Whoever let go the tug of war?Once you hold the rope , the rope has to drag you out or you drag the market.:LOL:
 
Most discretionary methods will fail , if instrument patterns and market behaviour changes.A trader using a hammer and a bullish engulfing candles, which performed reasonably profitably on hourly charts for many years, suddenly finds it no longer works and leads to consecutive losses and huge drawdowns.

What qualities and characteristics separate those few traders who survive these wretched conditions? What is the difference between those traders who survive and those who don't?

People will tell about exit plans etc , but those exit set ups also existed in their winning trades and runs , and if they used their exit strategy the winners wouldn't be there .I have done hundreds tests on exit strategies.

I have my own game plan to deal with these types of conditions.What is your game plan?How will you recover your losses and go back into profitability?
 
Last edited:
oildaytrader said:
Most discretionary methods will fail , if instrument patterns and market behaviour changes.A trader using a hammer and a bullish engulfing candles, which performed reasonably profitably on hourly charts for many years, suddenly finds it no longer works and leads to consecutive losses and huge drawdowns.

What qualities and characteristics separate those few traders who survive these wretched conditions? What is the difference between those traders who survive and those who don't?

People will tell about exit plans etc , but those exit set ups also existed in their winning trades and runs , and if they used their exit strategy the winners wouldn't be there .I have done hundreds tests on exit strategies.

I have my own game plan to deal with these types of conditions.What is your game plan?How will you recover your losses and go back into profitability?
Click to expand...

gamma said:
No 2 trades are alike, trying to get into the nitty gritty of of a particular trade, is not trading, by the sounds of it there seem to be a few programmers on this thread, trying to develop some sort of robot.
a definate road to failure.
Click to expand...

the automation v discretionary debate continues...
 
oildaytrader said:
Most discretionary methods will fail , if instrument patterns and market behaviour changes.A trader using a hammer and a bullish engulfing candles, which performed reasonably profitably on hourly charts for many years, suddenly finds it no longer works and leads to consecutive losses and huge drawdowns.

What qualities and characteristics separate those few traders who survive these wretched conditions? What is the difference between those traders who survive and those who don't?

People will tell about exit plans etc , but those exit set ups also existed in their winning trades and runs , and if they used their exit strategy the winners wouldn't be there .I have done hundreds tests on exit strategies.

I have my own game plan to deal with these types of conditions.What is your game plan?How will you recover your losses and go back into profitability?
Click to expand...

But your EA will simply glide through these changes? :LOL: Adapting to changing market trends is a gradual self management issue, other than upping TFs my edge has hardly changed in over 12months (other than being 'fine tuned').
 
Black Swan said:
But your EA will simply glide through these changes? :LOL: Adapting to changing market trends is a gradual self management issue, other than upping TFs my edge has hardly changed in over 12months (other than being 'fine tuned').
Click to expand...

No E A or trader has the ability to accurately predict the timing of a change in market conditions. Some EAS are designed for all sorts of market conditions
 
Black Swan said:
your 'point' is what...that only your EA adapts? :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

It takes losses when it has to and sticks to the game plan , but it is precoded to cater for a wide range of market conditions.The market conditions not precoded does result in drawdowns.

O D T
 
hehe, some one do trading for fun, some one do trading purely for money, it is life , and good luck.
 
oildaytrader said:
It takes losses when it has to and sticks to the game plan , but it is precoded to cater for a wide range of market conditions.The market conditions not precoded does result in drawdowns.

O D T
Click to expand...

Fing is, all your arguments can apply to manual trading if the trader is suitably disciplined. Or am I missing something here?
 
buttonzhu said:
hehe, some one do trading for fun, some one do trading purely for money, it is life , and good luck.
Click to expand...

if there's an award for the worst haiku ever you should have it....actually, (on re-reading), it's not bad... not quite there with 3 metrical phrases/17 moras, but not bad.... :LOL:
 
shadowninja said:
Fing is, all your arguments can apply to manual trading if the trader is suitably disciplined. Or am I missing something here?
Click to expand...

They would indeed apply to manual trading , but most (not all ) of us are not efficient processors of information related to dynamic multiple conditions , especially when operating multiple instruments,strategies and trades.

The human behaves and reacts differently after losses whereas robots do not use any biases and do not have weekly targets pressures ,therefore the comparisons between humans and robots performance are not on equal basis .There are other factors which apply i.e emotions,fear ,greed,energy,desire to win, etc

O D T
 
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