I honestly cannot recommend that anyone develop, or follow up an interest in trading.

JTrader

Guest
5,741 506
The odds are firmly stacked against a trader becoming long term successful.

Even if a trader did not have spreads or commissions to pay, i reckon a similar number would still fail. The spreads & commissions & any other costs, just make the level of sufffering a bit more intense, but in the long term, probably shorterns the length of time spent suffering.

What i have learnt is that the markets will punish you for the smallest of half-mistakes/oversights on your behalf. Unluckuy breaks tend to out number lucky breaks by at least 10 to 1.

You really do not to be on top of your game & be extremely precise, at all times to stand any chance of success.
 
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zupcon

Experienced member
1,162 322
I really do wish you the very best of luck, at least it sounds as if you've identified a big part of the problem, and got things into a correct perspective.

I guess the bad news is, regardless of how much you make, one set of problems just gets replaced by another :LOL: but thats part of the fun
 

JTrader

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5,741 506
JT, this sounds very familiar as I was there a few months ago and all of the things you mentioned almost did happen. its such a frustrating thing and you can easily become obsessed with trying to beat the market. time and time again you lose, then you have a break and as the pain fades you have another go. again you are given a tanking and the vicious cycle continues.

maybe one day we will both figure it out. maybe
I know exactly what you mean & trading can be so extremely cruel. You make 3 steps forward, and then take 2 steps back. Or 3 steps forward & 3 or more steps back :cry:.

This destroys the coinfidence and then you are likely to miss the big winning opportunity when it comes. And then you are likely to force bad signals in a game of catch up, and you do even more damage to your account.
 
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arabianights

Legendary member
6,725 1,377
so am I the only one who enjoys trading then?
 
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foredog

Experienced member
1,879 313
It's really refreshing to see someone be so honest and you very clearly communicate the realities of trading.

I'm afraid i've already gone down the slippery slope of obsession. Yes, trading ruins your life- it has mine also. I'm a single mum and my poor baby doesn't get much outside interaction with the real world anymore- i stay at home playing with her of course but, the charts always have to be in view :). I've become a recluse and am never going to get out and meet anyone, ever. And funnily enough, i don't care, because in a sick kind of way the charts have become my friends.

How sad is that?! I only pray they reward me for my dedication- and not bite me on the bum like oil did this morning.

Good luck for the future
Give yourself (and her) a lunch break or something, put a trailing stop on your position or get a crackberry so you can look at your position while out.

you'll be more refreshed when you do and probably trade better (no promises though)
 

JTrader

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And the worst part about trading is that the truth is hidden in plain view to some extent. We are told from the start & we know full well that 90% fail. We all think we will be different.

But the whole world also knows that the chances of us sustaining long term success are also hugely stacked against us. That is why there is an entire industry built around trying to teach us how to be successful, and how to evade the failure trap.

You are swimming in shark infested waters :!:

This includes the following types of fly by night woodworm leaching scum, who attach themselves to communities like this, full of innocent hopeful newbies who they aim to feed off. These are cunning pundits who use sophisticated overt and covert methods of gaining your trust and respect, only to have no end product of any real use on offer. At first it may not seem like they are selling something, but somewhere down the line, you just watch......
These are unscrupulous individuals who prefer to make their $ from the sidelines, around the peripherals of trading - safe in the knowledge that their income will be more steady this way, many probably having never traded in their lives. Such as -

- Authors of trading books & "educational material", such as spreadbetting guides etc. Whats so difficult about writing an F'ing book!? I could do that, all you need to do is copy someone elses work and re-arrange the wording in a safe & sophisticated enough way so that you won't be found out.
One of my uni lecturers had written a widely used psychology textbook. She was a crap lecturer, a fake, and the textbook was more or less exactly the same as all the other psychology textbooks - give or take a 5% standard deviation.

System developers. If your system is so good, why are you trying to sell it????....say no more.....

Custom Indicator creators. Those that will try to sell you something as useful and sustainable as a chocolate fireguard. We can all see that technical indicators are crap, yet are supposed to trust & value something that adds to the library of the existing 100's of these useless items.

As a general rule of thumb in trading, if someone is selling something, it prtobably doesn't work, and is of no practical use, or they would have used it to exploit the market themselves, without the hassle of having to provide customer serivce to customers.
 
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mauzj

Well-known member
357 37
- Authors of trading books & "educational material", such as spreadbetting guides etc. Whats so difficult about writing an F'ing book!? I could do that, all you need to do is copy someone elses work and re-arrange the wording in a safe & sophisticated enough way so that you won't be found out.
One of my uni lecturers had written a widely used psychology textbook. She was a crap lecturer, a fake, and the textbook was more or less exactly the same as all the other psychology textbooks - give or take a 5% standard deviation.
Yet again, very sad but true. I don't think I've learned anything of value from trading books.
 

JTrader

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5,741 506
....

I now have what i consider to be a very solid methodology, that is as good as it can be, more or less.

.....
Its gone f*ck*ng pear shaped today though! 3 steps forward 4 steps back!

I think i've isolated the problem though....It worked **** on the M5 chart, but 80%+ winners on M15.
I think this was due to messy/slightly irregular price action/candle formation on M5, along with fairly tight & congested S/R ranges, that produced a lot of losers 6W 11L.

But, once those S/R ranges are broken, and begin to space themselves out, this is where the profit potential lies - bigger quickish moves to the next in line S/R level.

Funnily enough, if id ignored M5 & just traded M15 today, would have made 5W 1L so far. Sods law as always. And yes i did miss the big winner at the end of the losing streak!

F*ck me! we can but try!

Someone somewhere is laughing at me right now!
 

timsk

Legendary member
7,085 1,877
Unlike many other professions, there's not much in the way of a grey area in trading. Broadly speaking, traders fall into three categories: 1) consistently profitable. 2) the 'slow bleed'. 3) here today, gone tomorrow after a major blow out. The market doesn't really factor in grey areas - you can either do it or you can't. It's black and white - just check your P/L to see which side of the divide you're on. In most other walks of life, one can get by being middle of the road, neither terrible nor exceptional. Indeed, this ground is occupied by the majority of people. That's what makes this game soooo tough, IMO, you really have to be very good just to be able to stand still, let alone make any real money. On that note - best of luck JT, I hope you hack it and thank you for your great input over the years.
Best wishes,
Tim.
 
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JTrader

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5,741 506
Unlike many other professions, there's not much in the way of a grey area in trading. Broadly speaking, traders fall into three categories: 1) consistently profitable. 2) the 'slow bleed'. 3) here today, gone tomorrow after a major blow out. The market doesn't really factor in grey areas - you can either do it or you can't. It's black and white - just check your P/L to see which side of the divide you're on. In most other walks of life, one can get by being middle of the road, neither terrible nor exceptional. Indeed, this ground is occupied by the majority of people. That's what makes this game soooo tough, IMO, you really have to be very good just to be able to stand still, let alone make any real money. On that note - best of luck JT, I hope you hack it and thank you for your great input over the years.
Best wishes,
Tim.
Cheers Tim.

I think the grey area's in trading concern signal strength, momentum etc. Shall i trade it or not? was the last bar too big, and is a retracement that will likely take out my SL now due?
It is a breakout but does that retracement in the last minute of the candle signal a reversal etc. Does this pause mean the end of the road, 0r is it just catching its breath???? etc. & ultimately depends on what/who is moving the price we see on the screen in front of us! (which we have no influence upon or control over....
but ultimately, i'm trying to stop analysing in such minute detail - i have a plan & try to stick with it, the trade will either hit the profit take exit criteria, or it will take out my SL. It may even take out my SL go no lower, and then go back to make a huge profit :mad: that is just sodss law, and i can't do much to control any of it anyway.

There are infinate grey areas in trading though.
 
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