I am losin Forex, are you?

nhasan

Newbie
7 0
Hello friends

I am in Forex trading for long time
But yet to find the holly Grail!
Most of my trade decisions are wrong and ends with loss.

Now I have built a software to combine some other traders who are losing in Forex like me.

If we can trade together we surely can reduce risk of wrong decision.

Say for example two traders A and B both have success rate of making right trade decision is around 40%.

So when they trade individually each of their trade decision has 60% probability to be wrong.

Now if they trade together and execute their decisions only if both of them agreed then the probability of making wrong decision will reduced to 0.6x0.6 = 0.36
So probability of making right decision increase up to 64%.

In this way we can reduce risk and increase profit probability by including as many traders as possible in our group.

If you are facing the same issue, please join with me to test the idea in demo account.

Here attached the software, test it in your end and let me know how it can be improve to make it more useful

Thanks
Note: Google Chrome blocks this zip to download as it contains the setup.exe file. Please use other browser to download it.
 

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Last edited:

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,301
Hi Nhasan

Think about what you have said ?

If you can get together say 100 + FX traders all with a low win success rate - ie under 40% - are you saying according to your theory then you probabilities will improve that much by all sharing etc you will then have a 90+ % chance of winning ??

Personally I don't think so

Instead copy what FX traders are doing who have a 65% + win rates - ideally with a record of over a few thousand live trades

You mention you have been Forex trading for a long time

Well - can you say you have watched and monitored live intraday charts for above 3000+ minimum hrs- I would think that would be a minimum

Forget back testing and short cuts etc etc - properly live moving day after day charts

If you think you have - well done - you should be over 50% and even maybe over 60% accurate with wins - as long as you are net setting silly targets with silly stops - ie 1 pip stop 300 pip target. ( lol)

To assist you on this - if you have been an active part time trader spending say 15 hrs a week - ie 3 hrs every day or 2 full days a week - then to do 3000+ hrs will take you over 200+ weeks or over 4 yrs

If you have only spent 10 hrs a week and say with 2 hrs a weeks studying books and dvd's etc then that will take you over 7 yrs to be at an OK level

Now if you say - no - I have been full time at it - then ok after say 2-3 yrs you should be a lot further down the road then just winning 4 out of 10 trades on average


Next question - Have you taken over 1000 trades yet - demo or even demo plus live ??

Until you have reached these milestones - maybe you are not as far down the FX journey as you think

All the best


F
 

neil

Legendary member
5,167 747
Know when to quit

Hello friends

I am in Forex trading for long time
But yet to find the holly Grail!
Most of my trade decisions are wrong and ends with loss.

Now I have built a software to combine some other traders who are losing in Forex like me.

If we can trade together we surely can reduce risk of wrong decision.

Say for example two traders A and B both have success rate of making right trade decision is around 40%.

So when they trade individually each of their trade decision has 60% probability to be wrong.

Now if they trade together and execute their decisions only if both of them agreed then the probability of making wrong decision will reduced to 0.6x0.6 = 0.36
So probability of making right decision increase up to 64%.

In this way we can reduce risk and increase profit probability by including as many traders as possible in our group.

If you are facing the same issue, please join with me to test the idea in demo account.

Here attached the software, test it in your end and let me know how it can be improve to make it more useful

Thanks

Perhaps you should accept that you are not cut out for trading and seek another mode of employment ?
 

Pat Riley

Established member
794 178
I think this is one of the most refreshing takes on trading I've seen in a long time. What you're really heading towards is a few people with the absolute most awful track record, and when you get consensus on a trade, fade it.

I really like the way you're thinking. I honestly do.

Unfortunately it's the nature of the game that nobody is ever that totally bad. And it's not just the decision on what and when to get in, it's all the other good stuff managing (or mis-managing) the trade, moving stops and targets and sizing and yer eventual exit.

But I do like yer approach.
 

NVP

Legendary member
37,622 2,032
you lost me after Holly Grail ....................
 

NVP

Legendary member
37,622 2,032
I think this is one of the most refreshing takes on trading I've seen in a long time. What you're really heading towards is a few people with the absolute most awful track record, and when you get consensus on a trade, fade it.

I really like the way you're thinking. I honestly do.

Unfortunately it's the nature of the game that nobody is ever that totally bad. And it's not just the decision on what and when to get in, it's all the other good stuff managing (or mis-managing) the trade, moving stops and targets and sizing and yer eventual exit.

But I do like yer approach.


good lateral thinking but sadly it doesn't work ...........as soon as you start taking this approach I guarantee their prediction/success rate will soar :LOL:

N
 

timsk

Legendary member
7,477 2,234
. . . good lateral thinking but sadly it doesn't work
Hi nhasan,
I don't think it will work either. The only time where it might be advantageous to trade in a group is where each member has a specific job to do that they're better at than anyone else in the group. So, for example, perhaps there's a group of three traders and one of them is very strong on fundamentals. S/he then picks the markets and sectors based on that. Then there's a trader who's the bees knees at TA, s/he then selects individual instrument(s) from within the chosen markets. For the sake of argument, the third member is ace at risk and money management, along with entries and exits, so s/he's the one that actually executes the trades. The key thing is that everyone has their strength. Just getting a bunch of traders together who aren't especially good in any one area doesn't magically make them strong in all of them. Two wrongs don't make a right etc.

Good luck with it, but I'm afraid you're barking up the wrong tree.
Tim.
 

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,301
This would be a major mistake.


Hi danga

Yes you do need to back test - but its just like demo trading - it can give you a false picture - not just because of data issues - but because of many other reasons

Instead - test any method on demo - LIVE

Yes it takes ages longer - could be an extra few months - or even 6 months - but you learn so much more

We all need demo accounts for checking out a new broker and testing a method / system etc - but then as we all know - demo trading is just not the same as with real live money

For me back testing - is just not the real deal

Regards


F
 

nhasan

Newbie
7 0
I think this is one of the most refreshing takes on trading I've seen in a long time. What you're really heading towards is a few people with the absolute most awful track record, and when you get consensus on a trade, fade it.

I really like the way you're thinking. I honestly do.

Unfortunately it's the nature of the game that nobody is ever that totally bad. And it's not just the decision on what and when to get in, it's all the other good stuff managing (or mis-managing) the trade, moving stops and targets and sizing and yer eventual exit.

But I do like yer approach.

Thanks for your valuable comment.
Did you see the application attached?
Do you think it can be helpful for traders to improve performance by sharing their trade plan?
 

nhasan

Newbie
7 0
Hi Nhasan

Think about what you have said ?

If you can get together say 100 + FX traders all with a low win success rate - ie under 40% - are you saying according to your theory then you probabilities will improve that much by all sharing etc you will then have a 90+ % chance of winning ??

Personally I don't think so

Instead copy what FX traders are doing who have a 65% + win rates - ideally with a record of over a few thousand live trades

You mention you have been Forex trading for a long time

Well - can you say you have watched and monitored live intraday charts for above 3000+ minimum hrs- I would think that would be a minimum

Forget back testing and short cuts etc etc - properly live moving day after day charts

If you think you have - well done - you should be over 50% and even maybe over 60% accurate with wins - as long as you are net setting silly targets with silly stops - ie 1 pip stop 300 pip target. ( lol)

To assist you on this - if you have been an active part time trader spending say 15 hrs a week - ie 3 hrs every day or 2 full days a week - then to do 3000+ hrs will take you over 200+ weeks or over 4 yrs

If you have only spent 10 hrs a week and say with 2 hrs a weeks studying books and dvd's etc then that will take you over 7 yrs to be at an OK level

Now if you say - no - I have been full time at it - then ok after say 2-3 yrs you should be a lot further down the road then just winning 4 out of 10 trades on average


Next question - Have you taken over 1000 trades yet - demo or even demo plus live ??

Until you have reached these milestones - maybe you are not as far down the FX journey as you think

All the best


F

It seems that you are a winner in Forex - right?

Then this idea may not be attractive for you, it's only for loser to try again together.

But still you can help others by posting review on their trade plan.

Did you see the application attached?
 

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,301
It seems that you are a winner in Forex - right?

Then this idea may not be attractive for you, it's only for loser to try again together.

But still you can help others by posting review on their trade plan.

Did you see the application attached?


My chrome security device stopped me opening your attachment ?

Yes - but you can also be a winner at forex trading - but it does take a long time and with lots of study and devotion etc etc


Regards



F
 

nhasan

Newbie
7 0
Hi nhasan,
I don't think it will work either. The only time where it might be advantageous to trade in a group is where each member has a specific job to do that they're better at than anyone else in the group. So, for example, perhaps there's a group of three traders and one of them is very strong on fundamentals. S/he then picks the markets and sectors based on that. Then there's a trader who's the bees knees at TA, s/he then selects individual instrument(s) from within the chosen markets. For the sake of argument, the third member is ace at risk and money management, along with entries and exits, so s/he's the one that actually executes the trades. The key thing is that everyone has their strength. Just getting a bunch of traders together who aren't especially good in any one area doesn't magically make them strong in all of them. Two wrongs don't make a right etc.

Good luck with it, but I'm afraid you're barking up the wrong tree.
Tim.

Thanks for your valuable comment
Can we take it as an experiment?
Did you ever trade in a group by sharing trade plan?
Did you test the application attached?
 

nhasan

Newbie
7 0
My chrome security device stopped me opening your attachment ?

F

Yes, I tested it
I can download it from FireFox, but not from Google Chrome
This is because the zip contain the setup.exe file
And I have developed the application personally in VB.Net that has no reputed publisher and security certificate.
 
 
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